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Ukraine Invasion Day 225: the post-war vatnik-free zone is not yet close [1]
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Date: 2022-10-05
Conventional wisdom is a dime-a-dozen as long as hostilities continue. The prospect of another decade of border hostility remains until a better sense of the post-war Ukraine appears, independent of Russian regime change.
Zelensky threatens further neoliberalization of Ukraine, policies that will ensure that postwar reconstruction is done entirely in the interests of predatory capital and at the expense of the working class.
https://t.co/DfCKOJ9Xfa
➡ A Polish official has said that Kyiv would welcome the participation of Polish state-owned companies in the postwar reconstruction of Ukraine
https://t.co/urKUpE9HYG
🇺🇦 | Despite Ukrainian advances, many military experts doubt that the end of the war is near. Supporting Ukraine militarily remains the priority, but Kyiv also needs a long-term plan for postwar reconstruction. @YoungsRichard on @Forum_2000 ⤵️
https://t.co/4Uxho6Ie70
Postwar reconstruction of Ukraine, coordinated under the Three Seas Initiative, could integrate functional core of Europe, from Poland through Romania, strengthening regional security and promote economic/political stability between Black & Baltic Seas.
https://t.co/xoB9DiJjsW
The scale of the recent defeats was underlined by a report by the BBC’s Russian service that said an elite Russian military intelligence unit may have lost up to three-quarters of its reconnaissance manpower in Ukraine .
Putin’s comments comes amid increasingly gloomy commentary from Russian war correspondents and military bloggers over the severity of the situation that has seen a large-scale withdrawal from the Kharkiv region, the loss of the strategic town of Lyman on Friday and Ukrainian advances in the Kherson region.
In the town of Lyman, which was retaken by Ukrainian forces on Sunday, more than 50 graves have been found, some marked with names, others with numbers, the Kyiv-based outlet Hromadske reported on Wednesday.
As Russian troops have retreated, they have left behind smashed towns once under occupation and, in places, mass burial sites and evidence of torture chambers.
With Ukraine pushing its advance in the east and south , Russian troops have been retreating under pressure on both fronts, confronted by fast moving and agile Ukrainian forces supplied with advanced western-supplied artillery systems.
“We are working on the assumption that the situation in the new territories will stabilise,” Putin told Russian teachers during a televised video call.
Russia has suffered significant losses in two of the four regions since Friday, when Putin signed treaties to incorporate them into Russia by force, with Russian officials saying their forces were “regrouping”.
The Russian president, Vladimir Putin , has appeared to concede the severity of the Kremlin’s recent military reversals in Ukraine, insisting Russia would “stabilise” the situation in four Ukrainian regions it illegally claimed as its own territory last week.
Why Russians might welcome a withdrawal
Firstly, even though Russia appears to be on its heels, experts are not expecting Putin to back down from his aggressive stance.
"The conventional wisdom out there, including analysts in our country and around the world, is that Putin can't accept defeat," Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia from 2012-2014, told NPR. "He will double down, he'll fight to the end, he might even use nuclear weapons."
"I've known Putin for a long time, written about him for decades. That would be my prediction too."
Yet according to McFaul, ending the war tomorrow might be the most strategically favorable move for the Russian leader.
"Tragically — and I say this, I want to emphasize that word tragically — if he did say, 'OK, I'm done. Let me have Donbas and Crimea, the places I was basically controlling before he invaded again in February,' I think there'll be a lot of leaders around the world that might support him," he said.
McFaul thinks that a decision to pull out of Ukraine would also be generally well received by Russians, saying that while there certainly is a significant portion of the Russian public that supports the war, the wider majority of Russians are ambivalent to Putin's goals.
"I think the vast majority of people in Russia are apolitical. They don't care about this war," McFaul said. "The argument for it is not compelling to them. So for him to say, 'Mission completed. We don't need your sons to go die in this war,' my prediction is a vast majority would support that."
www.npr.org/...
x Is Russia Escalating to De-Escalate?
https://t.co/8lIivqJ8Cz
As #Russia's losses mount in #Ukraine, could #Putin be searching for an exit? My colleague Mary Glantz and I offer our thoughts. @USIP — Mona Yacoubian (@myacoubian) October 5, 2022
In private discussions with one of us, Moscow-based Russian analysts have underscored how recent losses signal Russia’s need to change its tactics and escalate the war. They raised the prospect of mobilization (also noting the unpopularity of this move) and targeting of critical Ukrainian infrastructure — including water and electricity as part of a revised conflict strategy. The Russian military could also resort to using more heavy and sophisticated weaponry.
Putin’s Response
Putin appears to be following this playbook. Despite popular opposition, Putin ordered a partial military mobilization on September 21. While not the full mobilization and declaration of war the “milbloggers” desired, this was a clear concession to them. The number of men to be mobilized was not made public, but Defense Minister Shoigu said it was 300,000. Other reports have alleged it is actually one million. The mobilization has sparked a mass exodus of military-aged men from Russia, estimated at more than 180,000.
Russia may also have begun a campaign against critical infrastructure. NATO has deemed a series of suspicious Nord Stream pipeline leaks to be sabotage and threatened retaliation, while not directly blaming Russia. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the Russian military targeted more civilian infrastructure, cutting off power to much of Kharkiv on September 11 and bombing a dam in Kryvyi Rih on September 15. Hawkish members of the Russian Duma are calling for the targeting of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure including electricity, water and transportation lines.
[...]
But appearances may be misleading. Russia may be escalating out of weakness — escalating to de-escalate. In nuclear parlance, “escalate to de-escalate” refers to the tactical use of nuclear weapons for battlefield gains before de-escalating. In the current context, Putin may be seeking to wield the threat of the use of nuclear weapons — without their actual deployment on the battlefield — to compel his adversary to concede. Russia is losing ground in the conflict, but threatening use of its nuclear arsenal allows Moscow to appear that it is operating from a position of strength — a nuclear power on par with the United States.
Indeed, in the private discussion, one Russian analyst asserted that Russia wants to negotiate and is employing escalation tactics to get to the negotiation table. Raising the example of the Cuban missile crisis, the strategist noted that a direct threat of nuclear confrontation would be a clarifying move that would get the West’s attention and lead to a more pronounced effort at negotiation.
Putin is clearly more dangerous now than ever, but he remains a rational actor. Russia today is in a weakened position by virtue of the grave miscalculations underpinning its illegal invasion of Ukraine. While the dire consequences of Putin’s nuclear brinksmanship must be taken seriously, it is important to consider that Russia, instead of seeking total victory, may be seeking a way out of what is increasingly a strategic blunder of historic proportions. Putin’s continued saber rattling understandably got the most attention in his September 30 speech, but buried in the vitriol was a demand that Ukraine return to the negotiating table. The pageantry of the annexation aside, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to convince the Russian people that victory is near. The call for mobilization, even if partial, is a clear sign that all is not well on the battlefield. Similarly, on October 2, the popular newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda published an unusually frank report on the Russian retreat from Lyman. As this bad news accumulates, de-escalation appears more and more like the best, if not the only, path forward for Russia.
www.usip.org/...
x Via @euronews: Ukraine war: Russia uses Iran-made 'kamikaze drones' amid losses
https://t.co/hixZeVaeWn — Stephani Shelton (@stephanishelton) October 5, 2022
x Photos of a captured Russian Eleron-3 UAV by Ukraine's 28th Mechanized Brigade. It was reportedly downed by a EDM4S C-UAS gun.
https://t.co/xYSPRnjpkT pic.twitter.com/Ksw9xTiIpe — Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 5, 2022
x Some Unlikely Dealers Are Selling Weapons to Ukraine
https://t.co/AxHvl9UOfd — Amateos News (@AmateosNews) October 6, 2022
x Meanwhile on Russian state TV: grim predictions that Russia is at least two months away from even attempting to advance. Also, some surprising admissions about how unprepared they were and the magnitude of the losses they've experienced in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/VXL05R7JpN — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) October 5, 2022
x Record Spike in Russian Tank Losses in Wake of Ukraine Twin Offensives - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice
https://t.co/wXqGGWp7mH — Jonathan Knight (@jondknight) October 5, 2022
x How about interview from Gorbachev Vatnik
Perhaps you can explain as to why this 'agreement' was not written down. One that was written down was Budapest agreement where Russia guaranteed Ukraines borders in return for disarmament. 🤡🤡🤡
https://t.co/cNIci243E1 — Deborah Corbett (@Debscorb123) October 5, 2022
x -1.1-
October 05, 2022:
Amid military setbacks in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has promoted the authoritarian ruler of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, to colonel general. pic.twitter.com/MbwgUxx7Gk — Lachezar Chernilov (@LChernilov) October 5, 2022
x ⚡️Twenty-four Russian arms manufacturers that have made equipment used in the war against Ukraine are not under any sanctions in the United Kingdom, European Union, or United States.
Take a look at our new research here 👇
https://t.co/IKShb32J97 — Trap Aggressor (@TrapAggressor) October 5, 2022
x The war in Ukraine has produced 31 million tons of emissions so far, more than New Zealand generates in a year, officials say.
Postwar reconstruction could produce 79 million tons of emissions, more than the annual output of Greece.
Read more @YaleE360:
https://t.co/ISmaYIsE06 pic.twitter.com/wz4RAGXrYD — Yale Environment 360 (@YaleE360) October 5, 2022
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