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Ukraine Invasion Day 222: Putin denounces the West for a range of evils from imperialism to satanism [1]
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Date: 2022-10-02
What more patriotic reason for Putin to invade Ukraine than to adopt the western ideology of Gender Critical FARTS who are concurrently imperialists and satanists. Putin’s speech had such far-fetched reasons instead of recovering the profits from controlling the post-soviet states that would enhance the status of being one of the world’s richest persons.
Ukraine continues to advance in Luhansk and in Kherson, such as assaulting Kreminna.
This is how the Armed Forces of #Ukraine liberated Ukrainian territories from September 1 to October 1 on the map. pic.twitter.com/juplqZFJLO
The decision not to reinforce vulnerable Kupyansk or Lyman front lines was almost certainly Putin’s, not that of the military command, and suggests that Putin cares far more about holding the strategic terrain of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts than he does about Luhansk Oblast.
The gas leaks on the damaged Nord Stream 1 pipeline have now stopped. This follows Saturday’s announcement that gas was no longer flowing out of Nord Stream 2. Denmark’s energy agency said on Sunday it had been informed by Nord Stream AG that stable pressure had been achieved in the damaged Nord Stream 1 pipeline and that this indicates the outflow of natural gas from the last leaks had now halted, Reuters reports.
Germany, Denmark and Norway have commissioned a batch of long-range weapons to be built for Ukraine. The supply of 16 Slovak Zuzana-2 howitzers, just announced by the German defence ministry, will begin next year.
The Associated Press has found evidence of 10 torture sites in the city of Izium , following Russia’s retreat. “The AP spoke to 15 survivors of Russian torture in the Kharkiv region, as well as two families whose loved ones disappeared into Russian hands,” the AP reported.
The nine European countries who issued a statement earlier to condemn Russia’s annexation of Ukraine were all signalling their support for Ukraine to join Nato. The Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and Slovakia were backing a path for Ukraine’s Nato membership in their slightly opaque joint statement.
Ukraine is starting to believe it can take back Crimea, according to Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s top representative in the region. While there’s no suggestion that Ukraine is close to being in a position to regain the annexed region, Tamila Tasheva and her team spend their days discussing the logistics of what would happen should Kyiv regain control.
US secretary of defense Lloyd Austin has said that he believes Ukraine is “making progress” in the war. In a CNN interview that aired on Sunday, Austin attributes the changing tide of war to the calibre of Ukrainian soldiers and their use of weapons provided to them by the US and Nato countries.
Ukrainian forces shot down eight Iranian-made kamikaze drones on Sunday, according to the Kyiv Independent. According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ukraine’s air force also carried our four strikes that hit two Russian weapon stockpiles, as well as two anti-aircraft missile systems.
A leading UK charity that has been helping the government rematch Ukrainian refugees with hosts after initial placements end or break down is to scale back its operations because it says the scheme is unworkable. Hosting arrangements are for a minimum of six months and many are coming to an end after the scheme opened in March.
The body of Paul Urey, a British air volunteer who died after being captured by pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine has been returned to the UK . Urey’s family raised £9,000 to repatriate his body after the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) said it was unable to pay the transport costs.
Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Smyhal, says that 900 Ukrainian teachers have volunteered to join Ukraine’s Armed Forces to fight against Russia’s invasion since 24 February. “This is a great example of serving your people,” he said.
The UK Ministry of Defence has described the city of Lyman as strategically crucial , owing to its “key road crossing over the Siversky Donets River, behind which Russia has been attempting to consolidate its defences”.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy confirmed Ukraine has “fully cleared” Russian forces from the key eastern city of Lyman, a day after Moscow admitted its troops had pulled out after they were encircled. In a short video clip on his Telegram channel, Ukraine’s president thanked serving Ukrainian troops for liberating Lyman.
The US and its allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment in Ukraine and sink its Black Sea fleet if Russian president Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus said on Sunday. Petreaus said that he had not spoken to national security adviser Jake Sullivan on the likely US reaction, but he told ABC News that he believed a nuclear attack by Russia in Ukraine would trigger a Nato response led by the US. “You don’t want to, again, get into a nuclear escalation here. But you have to show that this cannot be accepted in any way,” Petraeus said.
x Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces are trying to take over Beryslav city. If these claims are true,this would indicate that Ukrainian soldiers have breached around 72 km into Russian lines in Kherson Oblast. Furthermore, Dudchany was allegedly taken over a few hours ago. pic.twitter.com/RgZajRMEK7 — CaucasusWarReport (@Caucasuswar) October 2, 2022
x Lots of reports currently about Ukrainian advances in #Kherson and #Luhansk. Few have been officially confirmed. However, we can draw a couple of things from these ongoing campaigns. 1/17 🧵 pic.twitter.com/ULrO82WIbx — Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) October 2, 2022
2/ First, what we are seeing is an excellent Ukrainian operational design playing out across the south and east of the country. While geographically separate, they are campaigns that are part of an integrated design, and part of an overall military #strategy. First, what we are seeing is an excellent Ukrainian operational design playing out across the south and east of the country. While geographically separate, they are campaigns that are part of an integrated design, and part of an overall military
3/ Second, the two campaigns are mutually supporting. The south is the most decisive region because of its economic contribution to Ukraine’s economy. The Russians know this and it is here they have deployed their most capable units. Second, the two campaigns are mutually supporting. The south is the most decisive region because of its economic contribution to Ukraine’s economy. The Russians know this and it is here they have deployed their most capable units.
4/ But the east is also important. It is a region proximate to Russia, and therefore gains here has a significant psychological effect on the Russians. And, the north east is a key logistic route for supporting operations in the Donbas. But the east is also important. It is a region proximate to Russia, and therefore gains here has a significant psychological effect on the Russians. And, the north east is a key logistic route for supporting operations in the Donbas.
5/ Third, because the Ukrainian operational deign for these campaigns has sequenced them well. Large Russian forces were drawn to the south and at trite during by Ukrainian artillery and HIMARS. This provided an opportunity for the next part of their design, the #Kharkiv thrust. Third, because the Ukrainian operational deign for these campaigns has sequenced them well. Large Russian forces were drawn to the south and at trite during by Ukrainian artillery and HIMARS. This provided an opportunity for the next part of their design, thethrust.
6/ It has been a classic ‘horns of a dilemma’ for the Russians, who have to decide where to weight their forces and reinforcements between the south and north east. And at the same time, they have persisted with their pointless attacks in the Donbas.
7/ Fourth, because the Ukrainians are operating on interior lines, they are better placed to move forces between the campaigns (although it is still a good distance). The Russians, on exterior lines, have big challenges in this regard.
8/ Fifth, the Ukrainian campaigns have continued to implement the ‘strategy of corrosion’ which focusses on destruction of Russian fire support, logistics, C2 nodes and concentrations of troops that might be reinforcements or reserves.
9/ This corrodes the Russians from within. It physically reduces their fighting power and also has a profound psychological impact. But there is also something else going on while this corrosion occurs. This is the ‘recon battle’ - a fight for tactical information. This corrodes the Russians from within. It physically reduces their fighting power and also has a profound psychological impact. But there is also something else going on while this corrosion occurs. This is the ‘recon battle’ - a fight for tactical information.
10/ This reveals weak points which the Ukrainian combined arms teams can break into and penetrate. And then conduct rapid exploitation, as we saw (and continue to see) in the #Kharkiv area. And now MIGHT be seeing in #Kherson. This reveals weak points which the Ukrainian combined arms teams can break into and penetrate. And then conduct rapid exploitation, as we saw (and continue to see) in thearea. And now MIGHT be seeing in
11/Ultimately the result of the physical and psychological pressure of all these integrated elements of the Ukrainian campaign design can lead to cascading tactical (and potentially operational) failures by the Russians.
12/ Such failure by the Russians in the two different regions can force additional errors. For example, they might speed up the deployment of mobilized troops, competing with transport required to provide other logistical support to front line troops. Such failure by the Russians in the two different regions can force additional errors. For example, they might speed up the deployment of mobilized troops, competing with transport required to provide other logistical support to front line troops.
13/ It can also force the Russians into taking greater risk with assets such as their EW, fires, and Air Force (they still have one, right?). All of which provides additional opportunity for the Ukrainians to exploit, destroy more of the Russian Army and recapture more ground.
14/ This is less an operational update than an explanation of how the theory of operational design works in practice. But what we have seen recently from the Ukrainian Armed Forces is more evidence that they have a better understanding of modern multi-domain war than all of us.
15/ Their mastery of modern war - including strategic influence operations - has also induced profound psychological shock in the Russians at the political, strategic, operational & tactical levels. Russia must now respond to Ukrainian initiatives at levels.
16/ We will see over the next few hours and days how the Kharkiv and Kherson campaigns play out. And, because of pressure in these two areas, there may be opportunities elsewhere that open up for the Ukrainians to exploit. End.
17/ Thank you to the following for images used in this thread: @TheStudyofWar @criticalthreats @DefenceU @Poutsup @IAPonomarenko @KyivIndependent Thank you to the following for images used in this thread:
• • •
x Russian pages are sounding the alarm about Kherson. One says Russian forces have fallen back to Dudchany, another says the situation could soon become critical, another says Ru forces need to prepare for urban warfare and that Ukraine is hitting their lines where they are weak. pic.twitter.com/5n58euQlWR — Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 2, 2022
's thread about what is and isn't known. He's right to point out Ru defenses are more fortified in Kherson and they have more elite units, but when this many Russian channels are sounding the alarm, it usually means they're in trouble. Unroll available on Thread Reader x
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1576637336418340864 I recommend @DefMon3 's thread about what is and isn't known. He's right to point out Ru defenses are more fortified in Kherson and they have more elite units, but when this many Russian channels are sounding the alarm, it usually means they're in trouble.
7/ x
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1576653257409064960 This Russian account is begging for air support and asking over Telegram if anyone has a connection to Russian military command to put them in contact, which is a pretty bad sign for Russian forces.
8/ x
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573521982691414018 A relevant detail.
10/
t.me/milinfolive/91… Военный Осведомитель The Russian Voenny Osvedomitel channel asks what should be done with officers who "openly sabotage the situation at the front with their inaction and stupidity" based on a report that units on the front line were warning about the Ukrainian buildup.
• • •
x You should read the Budapest Memorandum. Russia guaranteed that they would recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty, borders and would not invade. Ukraine gave up its nukes in exchange. — gavelguy (@jxf74) October 3, 2022
As for the current situation, in principle both goals are unattainable for Russia. Firstly, because there are no such groups or clusters of Ukrainian troops that could justify the expediency of using nuclear weapons. And given the political risks that follow, the use of nuclear weapons becomes inexpedient.
As for the demonstration strike, there is a clear position that Russia should understand that a demonstration strike will not work. The fact is that Ukraine has already passed the painful threshold when such a strike could force, firstly, the political leadership of the country to surrender, and secondly, intimidate our international partners so that they would limit support for Ukraine or rush to convince official Kyiv that it’s necessary to accept any Russian conditions.
Given this, the goals that Russia would try to achieve with such a nuclear strike are almost unattainable.
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