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THIS WEEK IN CONGRESS - SPECIAL: For The Lack of Two Senators - Part Four - House 2022 [1]
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Date: 2022-09-30
If we don't win the House, making these two Senators IRRELEVENT, will be itself IRRELEVENT!
SPECIAL BULLITEN
Before I get into what this particular post is about, let me inform folks as to why I have not been posting my regular “This Week In Congress (TWIC)” diaries even though Congress is back in Session, and why this will likely be my last TWIC post of any kind until after the November election. The reason is simple. I am totally occupied with GOTV efforts, as we all should be at this point. More on what I’m doing and what you can do at the end of this post. Now onto the topic of this post.
Back in early July, I posted a Special Edition of “This Week In Congress (TWIC)” which I entitled For The Lack of Two Senators - Part One! where I explored the many Progressive Bills passed by the House that had become stuck in the Senate’s In Basket, largely because of the two Dem. Senators pictured above. In Part One, I tried to show how close we are to getting this legislation passed and signed into law if we only hold our majority in the House and flip at least two more Senate seats to make Manchin’s and Sinema’s votes IRRELEVENT!
In Part Two of this series, I explored the issues our House and Senate candidates should be running on, and argued for a “Shotgun Approach”. By that I meant we shouldn’t have to decide on a single issue for all candidates to run on, but rather run on a range of major national issues (e.g., abortion, democracy, etc.) and allow candidates flexibility to include State/District specific issues where appropriate.
In Part Three of this series, I focused on some of the individual Senate races we need to win to make Manchin & Sinema IRRELEVENT, and provide the filibuster reform needed to enact the Progressive legislation passed by the House. In that post I used the latest 538 Polls to highlight where the crucial Senate races stand and where the polling trends seem to indicate they are going. I then gave my recommendations on which races deserve our campaign cash (which if you’re like me, is limited) to get the biggest political bang for your buck. Finally, I put forth my best guess as to Senate control after the 2022 elections.
So now onto Part Four — The House, where I will look at some of the individual House races in a similar manner as I did with the the Senate in Part Three. In this post I will use the latest 538 House Forecast to evaluate the Top 25 Most Competitive House Races as listed in 538’s top 50 on the linked 538 page. I will cover where the 538 provided polls currently stand on each of these races and where the polling trends seem to indicate where they are going (538 trend lines). I will then give you my 2 cents on which races deserve our campaign cash (which if you’re like me, is limited) to get the biggest political bang for your buck. Finally, I will put forth my best guess as to House control after the 2022 elections and how we can all help the GOTV effort.
Before I get into the individual races, let me say a couple words about 538’s polling and latest House Forecast.
With regard to polls, I use Nate Silver’s (old Poblano’s) 538 service because I have found it to be the least bias and most reliable over the years, in terms of matching polling to actual outcomes, and weeding out historically unreliable polling agencies. Besides, he is a hometown boy with respect to Daily kos. I tend to focus on the most recent polling data available, since polls that are several weeks old can paint a misleading picture as to where the race is at currently. I also like to look at the how the polls are trending over time to get an idea as to where each race is headed as we approach Election Day. However, when dealing with House races, there is little recent polling and in some cases, no polls at all, making predicting outcomes difficult. I would also note that 538 has trend lines running on all the House races showing who is leading and which way each race is headed, despite the fact that there is little or no polling on most races. I have no idea what 538 is basing their trends on since I have not bothered to try to dig into what they use. So I can only say that I have faith that Nate Silver knows what he’s doing to generate these trends and is not making wild unsupported guesses.
With regard to 538’s House Forecast, I try not to be as pessimistic on our chances this cycle as Nate and some of us are. Many Democrats tend to be “Debbie Downers” come election time, always fearing the worst instead of hoping for the best. Although, historic records on mid-terms indicate the Party in power (us) loses ground, this cycle has some important differences which suggest that we may actually gain ground. These differences include:
- The surprising results of the voter referendum on abortion in red Kansas;
- The surprising recent Dem. wins in the NY-19 and AK-AL special Congressional elections. Not a single pollster predicted these wins as possible. Most of us, including me, did not have these seats in our list of possible House holds/pickups; and
- The record breaking number of new registrations among women across the country due to the SCOTUS Dobb’s decision.
Based on the above, I tend to be slightly more optimistic then the polls might suggest because I am not sure their “likely voter” models are picking up these recent Democratic trends.
Anyway, enough babbling about polls and projections, let me dive into the Top 25 Competitive House races taking them in order of most to least competitive according to the 538 House Forecast:
1. VIRGINIA-02 — Dem. Hold, Luria (D) vs. Kiggans (R) : 538 VA-2 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls -
Apr.10-15 600 RV B/C Slingshot Strategies Luria 39% 34% Kiggans Luria +5
Trends — 538 has this race with Kiggan in the lead but trending towards Luria so it is now indicated as a virtual tie at 50.1 % (R) to 49.9% (D).
My 2 cents — Admittedly, the one poll showing Luria ahead by 5 is pretty old, and maybe a bit too optimistic. However, 538’s graph shows the race consistently trending towards Luria and if projected forward to Election Day, should show Luria ahead by a few points. This is a tight but winnable race for us, so let’s show Elaine Luria, one of the Heros of the Jan. 6 Committee, some financial love 💖!
Latest Polls -
Aug.11-15 400 LV B/C Moore Information Eli Crane O'Halleran 44% 45% Crane Crane +1
Trends — 538 has this race with Crane in the lead but trending towards O’Halleran so it is now indicated as a virtual tie at 50.2 % (R) to 49.8% (D). My 2 cents — Like VA-02 above, the trending in this race looks encouraging, but it’s still going to be tight. Certainly worthy of giving some financial love 💖 to our man Tom!
3. NEW YORK -22 — Dem. Flip, Williams (R) vs. Conole (D) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Trends — 538 currently shows the Democrat Conole with a slight lead (50.2 % (R) to 49.8% (D)), with a trend that suggests a continued tight race.
My 2 cents — This is a open seat which was previously held by a Republican. However, it’s a purple District that seems slightly bluer after re-districting. Although it is definitely too close to call, we could flip this one with a good GOTV effort. Definitely worth giving Francis Conole a little Campaign $$! — This is a open seat which was previously held by a Republican. However, it’s a purple District that seems slightly bluer after re-districting. Although it is definitely too close to call, we could flip this one with a good GOTV effort. Definitely worth givinga little Campaign $$!
4. CALIFORNIA- 27 — Dem. Flip, Garcia (R) vs. Smith (D) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Aug.25-30 600 LV B/C Mellman Group Christy Smith Smith 44% 42% Garcia Smith +2
Trends — 538 initially showed Smith having a trending slightly upward, but now it seems to be a flat trend with the race at a virtual tie with Garcia at 50.2 and Smith at 49.8.
My 2 cents — Another tight race that could be a flip for our side. This could turn on a very few votes, so it’s certainly worth the GOTV effort. If you can spare a few $$, Christy Smith can flip this one for us with our help. — Another tight race that could be a flip for our side. This could turn on a very few votes, so it’s certainly worth the GOTV effort. If you can spare a few $$,can flip this one for us with our help.
5. PENNSYLVANIA- 7 — Dem. Hold, Wild (D) vs. Scheller (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Trends — 538 has this race with Scheller (R) having a slight lead 50.2 % (R) to 49.8% (D), but consistently trending towards Wild, which if the trend holds, should put Wild out in front by Election Day.
My 2 cents — The poll is probably outdated. This is yet another tight race that is trending in our direction. Do you see the “trend” in these “trends” yet? You can donate to Susan Wild here.
6. CALIFORNIA-22 — Dem. Flip, Valadao (R) vs. Salas (D) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Jul.30-Aug.5 400 LV B- RMG Research U.S. Term Limits Salas 39% 34% Valadao Salas +5 Trends — 538 has this race as consistently trending towards Salas (D) who has a slight 50.3% to 49.7% lead. My 2 cents — Once again an old poll, but 538’s trend line on this race is interesting. It had Salas trailing by about 4 points in early July, but has steadily increased to overtake the incumbent Valadao at the end of August. This is shaping up to be a good flip opportunity for us, so give Rudy Salas some $$ 💖! 7. OREG0N-5 — Dem. Hold, McLeod-Skinner (D) vs. Chavez-DeRemer (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Trends — 538 trend showed the Republican with a 2 or more point lead most of the way until just recently when the race tightened to a 50.4% to 49.6% lead for Chavez-DeRemer.
My 2 cents — This is a Dem. open seat. But I’m not sure what’s going on here. A 13 point shift in polling over less than a month is remarkable. The trend line is also strange, probably being shaped by the most recent poll. Need more polling data to determine if this race is worthy of $$, but if you’re so inclined, donate to Jamie here!
8. IOWA-3 — Dem. Hold, Axne (D) vs. Nunn (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Sep.7-11 500 LV B/C Impact Research Cindy Axne Axne 47% 47% Nunn EVEN
Jul.9-11 400 LV B/C Moore Information NRCC, Zach Nunn Axne 43% 43% Nunn EVEN
Trends — Like the OR-5 race above, this 538 trend showed the Republican with a 2 or more point lead most of the way until just recently when the race tightened to a 50.4% to 49.6% lead for Nunn (R).
My 2 cents — Another very tight race that seems to be trending toward the Democrat. Although the latest poll showing the race even was the Dem. candidates poll, the early July poll which was an NRCC Poll also showed the race even. Iowa is always tough, but if we give Cindy Axne our $$ support, we can keep this seat.
9. KANSAS-3 — Dem. Hold, Davids (D) vs. Adkins (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Trends — The 538 trend on this race has Davids ever so slightly gaining on Adkins over time, leaving this race at a dead heat with a 48.9% to 48.0% Adkin lead.
My 2 cents — Although this race is as tight as they get, Kansas has surprised us before with respect with the abortion rights referendum that out-performed all the polls, and Davids is slightly favored to win. So let’s give Sharice Davids some $$ help!
10. TEXAS-15 — Dem. Hold, Vellejo (D) vs. Da La Cruz-Hernandez (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Trends — An almost flat 538 trend, but slightly headed in the blue direction recently with the Dem. Vallejo with a 48.8% to 47.9% lead.
My 2 cents — The poll is too old to have any meaning. Like many if not almost all of the above races, things are trending blue. Definitely, give Michelle Vallejo some $$ support.
11. NEW MEXICO-2 — Dem. Flip, Herrell (R) vs. Vasquez (D) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Jul.19-25 500 LV B/C Global Strategy Group Gabriel Vasquez Vasquez 45% 44% Herrell Vasquez +1
Trends — 538 shows this race gradually trending towards Vasquez with Herrell holding a slight 50.6% to 49.4% lead.
My 2 cents — Besides the fact the it’s a Vasquez poll, it’s too old to mean much. But if the trend holds and you extrapolate it to Election Day, Vasquez should come out on top. Let’s give Gabe Vasquez some $$ 💖!
12. MARYLAND-6 — Dem. Hold, Trone (D) vs. Parrott (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Trends — 538 has Trone consistently in the lead by about 2 points since the end of August.
My 2 cents — Another single poll that is too old to have any meaning. Although the consistent blue trend of this race is encouraging, 2 points is not much. We need to give some financial support to David Trone to hold this seat.
13. NEW JERSEY-7 — Dem. Hold, Malinowski (D) vs. Kean (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Trends — Up until recently, 538 had this race slightly trending blue. But in the last two weeks, it has, for some unknown reason, abruptly trended towards Kean (R) with a 51.2% to 48.8% lead.
My 2 cents — The poll is too old, and I really don’t have a clue as to what’s going on with this race. It’s seems to be the only race that is not trending blue. Anyone from NJ who knows what’ going on, please chime in.
14. MAINE-2 — Dem. Hold, Golden (D) vs. Poliquin (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Trends — The 538 trend line shows a gradual but consistent trend towards Team Blue, with Golden holding a 49.6% to 47.0% lead.
My 2 cents — The latest poll in this race looks extremely encouraging for our candidate and the 538 trend line suggests this is a win for us. So it’s worth giving Golden some $$.
15. ILLINOIS-17 — Dem. Hold, Sorensen (D) vs. King (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
My 2 cents — The two words that best describe the AK-At Large congressional race are ”it’s complicated”. For those of you who followed the Special Election to fill the vacant seat earlier this month, you probably are already aware how instant “ranked-choice voting works. This is just a repeat of that race which Peltola won. For those wondering what the hell is going on with two Republican candidates in the race, it’s because Alaska doesn’t do Primaries. They let as many candidates run as possible and if no single candidate gets over 50%, they add up the votes of each voter’s second choice. So those “second choice” votes get added to the candidates total to determine the winner. But voters are under no compulsion to make a “second choice” vote. So what happened in the special election was that few of Palin’s voters marked Begich as their second choice, and few of Begich voters marked Palin as their second choice, allowing the Democrat Peltola to win. There is a good chance that that could happen again as the Traditional Republican Begich and the Trump MAGA Republican Palin have been going after each other with neither encouraging voters to pick the other as their second choice. So as the above polls indicate Peltola is pretty close to 50% of the vote. So she could win outright, but even if she doesn’t, it looks like either Republican will have to have 10 points or more of “second choice” votes to beat her. So I’m pretty bullish on Mary Peltola being able to pull it off again. Here is the Peltola for Alaska page if you’ld like to chip in!
17. NORTH CAROLINA-13 — Dem. Flip, Hines (R) vs. Nickel (D) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Aug.29-Sep.1 500 LV B/C Global Strategy Group Wiley Nickel Nickel 44% 40% Hines Nickel +4
Trends — Up until the last couple days, 538 had this race gradually trending towards the Democrat, but now it shows Hines with a sudden jump to a 51.6% to 48.4% lead over Nickel.
My 2 cents — Not sure what’s up with the Republican’s sudden jump up in the trend line, since the two most recent polls show the race going towards Nickel. But anyway you slice it, this is a tight race in which Wiley Nickel needs our support.
18. COLORADO-8 — Open Seat, Kirkmeyer (R) vs. Caraveo (D) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Jul.26-Aug.2 500 LV B/C Global Strategy Group Yadira Caraveo Caraveo 42% 44% Kirkmeyer Kirkmeyer +2
Trends — Up until the last couple days, 538 had this race gradually trending towards the Democrat, but now it shows Kirkmeyer with a slight jump to a 49.7% to 46.1% lead over Caraveo.
My 2 cents — Although this single poll is old, the fact that Caraveo’s own poll shows Kirkmeyer with a 2 point lead is not a good sign. This will likely be tight to the end, so please consider giving Caraveo some $$ support.
19. NEW YORK-19 — Dem. Hold, Riley (D) vs. Molinaro (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Trends — 538 trend shows this race rapidly tighten from what was a 5 point Republican lead at the end of August to what is a dead heat now with 50.1% (R) to 49.9% (D).
My 2 cents — Some of you may remember there was a special election to fill an open seat in the NY-19 District where the well known Molinero (R) lost to Pat Ryan (D) in an upset that centered around the abortion issue. But since then we have a newly drawn NY-19 which is slightly less favorable for the Republican. However, because of the redraw, pat Ryan is not running in NY-19, he’s running in NY-18. With respect to the polls above, the latest poll showing Molinero with a 10 point lead is a Republican poll and should be suspect. The previous two polls, one by Democrat Riley’s campaign and the other independent probably paint a clearer picture of this race, which is virtually tied in the trend line. This is a winnable District for Team Blue so let’s help Josh Riley with a little $$!
20. NEW YORK-18 — Dem. Hold, Ryan (D) vs. Schmitt (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls — No recent polls.
Trends — The 538 trend line on this race has Ryan (D) steadily on an upward path to the point he has a lead of 51.7% to 48.3% over Schmitt (R).
My 2 cents — As stated above, Ryan won the special election in NY-19, but because of re-districting, is running in NY-18. Unfortunately, there are no polls on this race, however the 538 trend looks very good for our guy. That combined with the fact that the new NY-18 covers a good chunk of the old NY-19 which he already won handily over a more popular Republican (Molinero) is another good sign. Still it’s a tight race, so you may want to help out Ryan with some $$.
21. PENNSYLVANIA-17 — Dem. Hold, Deluzio (D) vs. Shaffer (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Jul.18-21 400 LV A/B Lake Research Partners Chris Deluzio Deluzio 43% 42% Shaffer Deluzio +1
Trends — 538.s trend line shows Deluzio (D) consistently ahead with a 52.0% to 48.0% lead over Shaffer (R).
My 2 cents — Although the candidate’s poll is old, the trend line shows Deluzio consistently ahead since then. So of all the races so far, this is the most likely to be a Dem. hold.
22. PENNSYLVANIA-8 — Dem. Hold, Cartwright (D) vs. Bognet (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Sep.12-15 400 LV B GQR Matt Cartwright Cartwright 52% 44% Bognet Cartwright +8
Sep.6-8 440 LV B+ Cygnal Jim Bognet Cartwright 48% 48% Bognet EVEN
Trends — 538 shows Cartwright (D) gradually pulling ahead since the candidates were even in July. Now shows our candidate leading 52.1% to 47.9%.
My 2 cents — The two polls above were run by each candidate’s campaign, so they both need to be taken with a grain. However, if we split the difference, they show Cartwright with a 4 point lead, which is consistent with the trend line. So things look good for a Dem. hold in this race.
23. NEW YORK-1 — Dem. Flip, LaLota (R) vs. Fleming (D) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls — No recent polls.
Trends — The 538 trend line in this race shows LaLota (R) consistently ahead by 51.9% to 48.1%.
My 2 cents — Although the trend line looks bleak, the fact that there are no polls for this race leaves me wondering what’s going on. Since the trend margin is not that great, I am not ready to give up on this race yet, especially since this is a Long Island District, not a real red one. So I would recommend giving Fleming some $$ 💖!
24. NEVADA-3 — Dem. Hold, Lee (D) vs. Becker (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Trends — The 538 trend shows Lee (D) steadily increasing her lead with a recent jump up to a 52.2% to 47.8% margin.
My 2 cents — Both Polls are old, but the one showing Lee in the lead has the better 538 rating at A-. The trend line on this race looks good, so this should be a Dem. hold.
and last but not least….
25. NEW YORK-3 — Dem. Hold, Zimmerman (D) vs. Devolder-Santos (R) : 538 Polling & Trends
Latest Polls —
Trends — 538 shows Zimmerman (D) gradually pulling ahead since the candidates were even in August. Now shows our candidate leading 52.3% to 47.7%.
My 2 cents — Both the poll and trend line look good for us in this race, so it should be a Dem. hold.
THAT’S IT!
SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS :
To get right to the bottom line off-the-bat, if I had to describe what our chances are of holding the majority in the House in two words, they would be ”cautiously optimistic”. Now let me give you the “negatives” and “positives” from the data above and other factors that justify my conclusion.
The Negatives —
1. I believe the current House Party breakdown is 221 (D) to 210 (R), or at least somewhere close to those numbers. That means we hold approximately 11 seat majority. If we look at the above races, 19 out of the 25 are “Dem. Holds”, meaning that if we factor out any Dem. Flips, we need to win 12 of these 19 of these races just to hold a one seat House majority. Considering the fact that the current 538 polling and trends indicate that a majority of the above races are basically dead even “toss ups”, winning 12 or more of the “Dem. Holds” seems like a tall order. Something like pulling a straight at poker.
The Positives —
Tangible Positives (based on above data) —
1. Based on the 538 polling and trends, it appears there are 2 races where the Dem. has a good chance of flipping a Republican held seat. So that could somewhat offset losses in seats currently held by Democrats.
2. Current 538 polling (August-September) on the above 25 races shows 11 polls showing the Democrat in the lead, 6 polls showing the Republican in the lead, and 3 polls showing a dead even race. So current polling indicates Dems. winning a majority of these 25 seats.
3. Current 538 trend lines show the Democrat with the lead in 11 of the 25 races.
4. If you extrapolate the current 538 trend lines to Election Day, assuming the trends hold, it would indicate that Dems. are positioned to win 19 of the 25 races, which would secure our House majority.
Intangible Positives (based on other recent developments) —
1. We have the unexpected wins on the abortion question in Kansas and Minnesota which polls did not predict.
2. We have the special election wins in the old NY-19 District and the Alaska “At-Large” District which no polling predicted and almost no one saw coming.
3. We have seen a substantial increase in new voter registrations among women which almost certainly is due to the abortion question and almost all are likely to favor Democrats.
5. We have the distinct possibility that the vast majority of the polling is significantly under-estimating Dem. performance. If you notice, almost all the above polls are based on “LV”, Likely Voter models. How each pollster determines who are “likely voters” is unknown, but usual is based on voter turnout in past elections to a certain degree. As such, it is unlikely that a lot of these Pollsters are polling a lot of the newly registered women voters and registered voters energized over the Dobb’s decision nd the Democracy threat posed by the GOP. So when I see a Likely Voter poll showing a dead even race, I tend to view it as one in which the Dem. actually has a slight lead.
My Final 2 Cents :
My gut, which is all upset over the House right now, tells me we have all the issues in our favor. So while we are playing defense in terms of numbers of House seats, we are playing offense on the issues. Republican issues such as inflation are dropping in terms of voter concern, thanks primarily to steadily falling gas prices. Democrat issues such as abortion and democracy are topping the list of what voters are concerned about thanks to the Dobb’s decision and a number of crazy MAGA candidates. So again, I’m ”cautiously optimistic”.
What Can You Do To Help :
I have provided links above for you to donate to individual races, which I encourage you to do. However, if your like me and don’t have a lot of spare $$ to throw at all these races, there are a number of GOTV activities that require little or no $$. Fortunately, Daily Kos Has Created This Single GOTV Page where you can select from a huge number of GOTV opportunities. These include:
- Door to Door Canvassing for individual candidates near you (one of my favorites since there is nothing like a face to face discussion with fence sitting or Dem. leaning voters to achieve positive results).
- Phone Banking (not my favorite because I don’t like rejection, and don’t consider it as effective as other GOTV activities).
- Writing Letters to Voters (I use Vote Forward which provides you lists of Dem. leaning voters and formatted letters where you add in your own sentences of voter encouragement).
LET’S GOTV!
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