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Independent women ditch Republicans while independent men sour on Trump [1]
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Date: 2022-09-30
Abortion rights activists yell during a protest in the wake of the decision overturning Roe v. Wade outside the U.S. Supreme Court Building on June 25, 2022 in Washington, DC.
Two Civiqs tracking polls suggest that Republicans and Donald Trump are in a newly precarious position with both independent women and men, but likely for different reasons.
Civiqs' generic ballot tracking poll shows Democrats ticking up to 49%, their highest point since tracking began over a year ago and a 4-point edge over Republicans.
x Civiqs Results
Democrats began to break away from Republicans in mid- to late-July, about a month after the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade and upending a half century of settled reproductive rights law. But the demographic that clearly fueled the recent Democratic bump in Civiqs polling was independent women.
x Civiqs Results
When the Supreme Court decision drops in late June, the two parties are roughly tied with independent women at around 39%. But around mid-August, Democrats start gaining traction with the cohort, leading to their current 8-point advantage, 47% - 39%.
But women aren't the only independents who appear to be waking up to the threat Republicans pose to the country. Independent men are souring on Donald Trump himself, according to Civiqs tracking of his favorables.
What caught our eye was the fact that Trump, sitting at a 38% favorable rating, dropped below 40% in the tracking poll for the first time since he won the 2016 election.
x Civiqs Results
Digging deeper, that falloff is driven mainly by independent men, with whom Trump is currently 13 points underwater, 39% - 52%. The turnaround came quick. In early August, Trump's favorables/unfavorables among the cohort was roughly even at 45% - 46%. Then the FBI searches Mar-a-Lago on Aug. 8 and news breaks that Trump stole highly sensitive documents (some related to nuclear secrets). It's all downhill from there. In fact, Trump’s even taken a 2-point hit among GOP men, from 83% to 81%.
x Civiqs Results
One of the more virtuous qualities of Civiqs tracking polls is that they don’t bounce around all the time. Trump’s favorables are a perfect example—he spent nearly six years hovering somewhere between 41% — 44% favorability. So when Civiqs does show a change—a notable drop in this case—something is usually up.
Whether the disenchantment of independent men with Trump will translate to November is an open question. But given that Trump’s paws are all over this election and he is now a staple in national headlines, his omnipresence likely isn’t helping Republicans among a key demographic that often leans Republican.
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/30/2126164/-Independent-women-ditch-Republicans-while-independent-men-sour-on-Trump
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