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Ukraine update: New HIMARS are not headed to Ukraine, not imminently, and that's okay [1]
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Date: 2022-09-29
HIMARS in action, much to #NAFO' delight
The Pentagon announced a new $1.1 billion Ukraine aid package yesterday that included, “18 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and associated ammunition.” While the news generated a great deal of initial excitement, it didn’t take long for people to notice the fine print. “Unlike Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which DoD has continued to leverage to deliver equipment to Ukraine from DoD stocks at a historic pace, USAI [Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative ] is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities from industry,” the Pentagon’s press release explained. “This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional priority capabilities to Ukraine in the mid- and long-term.”
In other words, the U.S. has given Ukraine money to go shopping, but such weapons deliveries arrive whenever the manufacturers can get that equipment to them. Items like Humvees are likely plentiful, and should arrive quickly. HIMARS, not so much, and might take as long as two years.
Yet that’s not the problem that many make it out to be. Ukraine’s bottleneck is the same it has always been—ammunition. The U.S. and allies simply don’t have enough HIMARS rockets to feed Ukraine’s insatiable hunger for more.
As of January 2021, 50,000 GMLRS rockets had been manufactured, or around 8,333 pods. The production rate last year was 9,000 rockets, or 1,500 pods. The United States used up many of those pods in Afghanistan and Iraq, and many went to allies who field MLRS or HIMARS systems. So the total available was significantly less than the number manufactured.
Ukraine has 16 HIMARS and 10 M270 MLRS launchers. Let’s pretend Ukraine had 10,000 GMLRS pods for the sake of math (which remember, is more than have been manufactured). Divide that by Ukraine’s 26 GMLRS-compatible systems, and that would be only 384 pods per unit. If each launcher fired 10 pods a day—much less than their daily capacity—Ukraine would exhaust the supply in 38 days. Ukraine’s real number of available GMLRS rocket pods is more likely in the hundreds. Adding more HIMARS launchers doesn’t magically multiply the available ammunition.
My estimate of “hundreds” has some support. Military expert Thomas Theiner on Twitter dug through Department of Defense reports providing insight into what has been sent to Ukraine.
x Until 12 August the Pentagon ordered $139,599,000 of GMLRS rockets. According to these Pentagon papers M31A2 rockets cost $774,750 per pod of six... so we can assume (with a margin of error) that Ukraine received around 180 pods with 1,080 rockets in July.
9/n pic.twitter.com/ENoEMytunf — Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) September 27, 2022
Ukraine got its first four HIMARS in June, doubled in July. So in the second month of operation, it look like they got 180 pods for their eight launchers. So for that entire month, each HIMAR launcher got just 22 pods. Now, those 1,080 rockets helped shut down the Antonovsky bridge, provided spectacular HIMARS o’clock imagery, and ground Russia’s Donbas advances to a halt. So this isn’t to say 1,080 GMLRS rockets was insufficient, just that it was more than easily handled by eight launchers.
Ukraine has 26 launchers now, odds are therefore good that the number of GMLRS pods has increased. But we’re not talking massive numbers. Other allies have likely chipped in. Germany has sent ammo of its own, including MLRS-launched rockets that seed anti-tank mines over a large area. There have been rumors Ukraine has gotten old-school unguided rockets it can use against prepared Russian defensive positions, but we haven’t seen any visual evidence of that, and would mean the use of cluster mines banned by international treaty.
Also remember that each pod of six rockets costs $750,000. Ukraine has had to budget for the equipment it has received under the presidential drawdown authority. The money is limited. Thus, it has had to balance its desire for GMLRS rockets, with its needs for regular 155mm artillery shells, body armor, night vision goggles, spare parts, rifle ammunition, grenades, Javelins, Stingers, trucks, Hummers, and all the virtually infinite desperately needed items to defend itself.
Meanwhile, the Department of Defense has set strict boundaries over how low its ammunition stocks can go given Chinese belligerence around Taiwan and the ever-present North Korean threat.
The good news is that the Pentagon is investing serious money to rapidly expand production of GMLRS rockets and HIMRS launchers.
x And the Pentagon is also increasing M142 and GMLRS production:
• $77,000,000 to procure long lead items for GMLRS
• $44,000,000 to shorten GMLRS production times
• $71,500,000 to increase M142 HIMARS production
10/n — Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) September 27, 2022
Well, it’s shit news given how that money could be used for peaceful endeavors, but it’s good news for Ukraine’s longer-term survival efforts.
"We have received nearly $400 million dollars to replenish HIMARS and GMLRS in DOD stocks," said William LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, during a visit to the Arkansas factory producing these systems. "In addition, we are planning nearly $200 million to expand and accelerate production and are anticipating contract awards this fall and early next year." Business will be booming at that facility for years, as countries line up to purchase the highly capable and proven system. Poland alone has ordered 500 HIMARS, just imagine what that ammunition order will look like! (Seems like there might also be demand for a much cheaper unguided version like the ones during my time working with MLRS).
Problem is, expanding a factory line takes time—time to build out the facilities, install the robotic and machining equipment, and hire and train staff to operate and manage the increased capacity (in a time of low unemployment). Until then, the current monthly production rate of 125 pods will barely make a dent in Ukraine’s demand.
All of that means that Ukraine has no use for additional HIMARS, and their public declarations confirms it. HIMARS are fun and effective and Twitter is in love with them and #NAFO make the cutest memes, but the ammunition just isn’t there to make full use of the launchers Ukraine already has. That’s why they're asking for tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and F-16s instead.
And really, it’s past time to make those happen. At least this is now more realistic:
x USA 🇺🇸 is reviewing whether to give Ukraine 🇺🇦 several Gray Eagle Combat Drones
It is likely that if USA will approve these drones for Ukraine it would occur after Ukraine has NASAMS defending the airports where the drones will be flown from. NASAMS are expected before December pic.twitter.com/rK07uIypbR — Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) September 29, 2022
These were announced a few months ago, but both Ukraine and the U.S. subsequently decided these $23 million drones were too vulnerable to Russian air defenses to make the investment worthwhile. Also, there were apparently concerns about Russia getting their hands on the technology. This isn’t the Taliban or ISIS they’d be flying agains.
But new Ukrainian air defenses have hit Russia’s underperforming Air Force hard the last week, and HARM anti-radar missile have decimated Russian air defenses to the point that this is now possible:
x Goodnight #Ukraine: 216 days since Russia's full-scale invasion, and the Ukrainian air force is still very much alive & kicking. Here two Su-24 attack jets support 🇺🇦 ground troops, by bombing Russian positions.
https://t.co/GQ2MtqoYqf pic.twitter.com/LUChuPK5Cw — Glasnost Gone (@GlasnostGone) September 27, 2022
Those Gray Eagles suddenly make a lot more sense.
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x Updates:
East of Kup'yans'k 🇺🇦 have taken back control of Kucherivka and Kivsharivka. Petropavlivka is contested. pic.twitter.com/bBXNSOy1ut — War Mapper (@War_Mapper) September 29, 2022
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said to expect good news from the front very soon. Telegram is full of Ukrainian sources barely containing themselves, claiming the same, but under strict operational silence. So while not much has officially moved around Lyman, things are certainly happening.
The Ukrainian advance east of Kupyansk is exciting. Russia spent several days trying to force Ukraine back to the western side of the Oskil river splitting the city in half. Russia’s efforts were happily for naught, as Ukraine is now expanding that bridgehead.
Meanwhile, pro-Russian sources were focused yesterday on a supposed Russian counter-counterattack in Kherson, claiming that they had broken the Ukrainian advance in the region. Ukraine claimed otherwise, and they’re not liars like the Russians. Regardless, Ukraine’s initial advance in Kherson helped mask their spectacularly successful push in Kharkiv, but it was a serious effort in its own right. Still, why would Ukraine reinforce that effort when it was having such incredible success in what Mark Sumner called the “Tri-Oblast-Area” (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk)?
Had Russian defenses collapsed in Kherson instead, reinforcements would be flooding there instead. Ukraine doesn’t have the means to wage two all-out attacks at once, nor should it. Remember, I spent the first two months of the war knocking Russia for trying to wage a multi-front war. So for now, Ukraine seems happy to merely HIMARS the f’ out of Russian forces and bridges in the area, forcing them to supply via inefficient barge and helicopter. Winter might take care of those Russian lines better than anything Ukraine can currently muster up.
[END]
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