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Majority Savers: Let's Support Pat Ryan for New York-18! [1]

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Date: 2022-09-28

Candidate Background

Now that he is more well known, this section has been expanded. His biography includes more detail now as compared to his special election win.

Ryan specialized in international studies at West Point, and got a master’s degree in security studies from Georgetown University.

Ryan served two tours in Iraq as an Army intelligence officer. It was an extension of the service back to your country that his parents taught him at a young age.

When done serving his country, Ryan opened a small business which eventually grew to 150 employees. It specialized in technology. He also was prominent in other tech startups.

Ryan was elected Ulster County Executive in 2019, and has handled multiple crises including a dormant IBM facility, COVID-19, and handling a budget of over $25 million dollars.

Signature Issues

Rep. Pat Ryan still does not have a DW Nominate score, as he only recently joined Congress and usually there is a lag of a few weeks while they tally up and aggregate votes. He has not joined any caucuses as of yet, but his site has a better issues and priorities page. Here’s what he is making a priority now that he is in Congress.

Abortion : Pat Ryan has made the Dobbs decision one of the most important in his campaign. He has pledged to codify Roe into law and fight against any national abortion ban. This was the largest issue he ran on in his special election win, and it has remained important for his run for a full term.

Gun Safety : People in New York are also angry at the Supreme Court fascists for striking down the gun safety laws that the state of New York had, which were some of the strictest in the nation. Ryan knows weapons of war, and he would push for stricter gun safety laws in Congress.

Economy: Ryan has championed labor and paid family leave for all Americans. He would pass the PRO Act and make sure that the ultra rich pay their fair share in taxes while working Americans get a tax cut. He would also fight inflation by going after companies who are gouging customers.

Elections History

Recent Elections —

2020 President: Joe Biden (D) 53.3%, TFG (R-inc) 45.0%

2022 Special Election: Pat Ryan (D) 51.1%, Marc Molinaro (R) 48.8%

2022 PVI: D+1

2022 Race Rating: Tossup

This district is in a swingy part of Upstate New York. Republicans have traditionally done well in this area, which is why this will be a barometer of who has more enthusiastic voters come the fall. The district tends to elect more moderate members of both parties. It was in the 2006 blue wave when the action really started in this district, when now Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand won in a complete shock over a GQP foe.

The district stayed with Democratic candidates for a little while, even through a special election much like this one in which we held the district despite the building red wave election. 2010 was a bridge too far, and Rep. Chris Gibson ejected Rep. Scott Murphy from the seat. Gibson held what would become the 19th district all the way until he left in 2016.

Rep. John Faso took over from there, but he ran into a juggernaut in Rep. Antonio Delgado in 2018, who beat Faso after only one term in office. Delgado held the district in 2020 when Biden narrowly won the seat, and held it until he resigned in May 2022 to become Lt. Governor. That triggered a special election, in which Rep. Pat Ryan won narrowly. The 18th district is much more blue, giving him a much larger margin for error.

The Hudson River still bisects this district, although more of it is located on the left side of the river.

Political Tour of the District

The new 18th district of New York. It is quite a bit different than the previous district Pet Ryan ran in and won.

This district is quite a bit more blue than the district Pat Ryan narrowly won in the special election. Less rural turf and more suburban areas were added to the district, which makes a huge difference. Ryan still has plenty of new constituents, which of course puts him at risk until he is entrenched.

Here’s where this race will be won in the 18th district.

Ulster County : This is the Democratic anchor for the entire district, and it is also the home base for Pat Ryan. It cannot be overstated that a robust turnout is critical to his chances here. Woodstock happened in this county, just to give a reference to how eclectic it can be.

: This is the Democratic anchor for the entire district, and it is also the home base for Pat Ryan. It cannot be overstated that a robust turnout is critical to his chances here. Woodstock happened in this county, just to give a reference to how eclectic it can be. Dutchess County : The bluer portions of this county are now in the district, which is why the trends are much more favorable for Ryan. While he lost the county in the special election, he will likely win the county this time around.

Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.

Orange County : Much of this area is rural, and has rejected the Democratic Party. There are important towns such as Newburgh and Middletown which will provide crucial votes for Ryan, but the rest of the county is going to be tough sledding. It is also the home base of State Rep. Colin Schmitt.

Activism — Help How You Can!

It is hard to gauge where Rep. Pat Ryan is financially right now, because he likely spent a LOT of money in getting to Congress via the special election. It is also true that members of Congress make connections to get more campaign contributions, and that his famous win likely spurred more donations. It is quite likely that he has over a million dollars again in his campaign fund.

What I do know is that his GQP opponent, State Rep. Colin Schmitt, raised $340k for Quarter 2 (Quarter 3 ends this week, and they have until October 15 to report). He also has $601k cash on hand for the general election. Since Ryan is now in Congress, our job is to keep him there. We do that via more donations so he can run a general election campaign too!

DONATE TO REP. PAT RYAN HERE

Ryan definitely can thank the many volunteers that came out and canvassed, knocked on doors, and phone and text banked for him. Hopefully those volunteers will aid him again in the fall. If you live in the areas covered by this district, volunteer at https://www.patryanforcongress.com/volunteer. There never can be enough volunteers for any campaign, especially for a marginal seat.

Checking in on his social media, the special election did wonders for his follower numbers. He was at about 10k followers when I profiled him for the special election, and now his campaign account has 41.1k followers. A similar trend can be found on his Facebook page, where he has gained followers after his win.

Here is one of his first votes on critical legislation:

x This week the House passed bipartisan legislation to help prevent another January 6th, combat election subversion, and strengthen our democracy. I proudly voted for this legislation. I promised to protect democracy and American values. I’m delivering on those promises. — Pat Ryan 🇺🇸 (@PatRyanUC) September 23, 2022

This may be an easier task for Ryan than his previous special election run, but there is no room for him to get too comfortable just yet. His district is still marginal, and it still has many new constituents who have never voted for him before. Majority Savers is written just for races such as this one. Thank you for reading about yet another race in New York state!

How to find all Majority Savers’ diaries:

To find all past and future diaries of the Majority Savers group, go to their Diaries List. (We suggest that you Bookmark that page.) The home page of the Majority Savers group is here.

Pat Ryan for New York-18!

Donate | Volunteer | Campaign | FaceBook | Twitter

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