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Hurricane Ian is near Cat 5 as Florida braces for landfall [1]

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Date: 2022-09-28

Hurricane Ian, which was predicted to reach Cat 4 status with 140 mph sustained winds, has strengthened overnight to a near Cat 5 hurricane with 155 mph sustained winds. It had an eye replacement cycle (ERC) overnight resulting in a larger eye and wider wind field.

Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground, catastrophic wind damage, tornadoes and heavy rainfall is expected along the southwestern coast of Florida beginning in the next few hours.

A closer look at the track across Florida. The Tampa area has not experienced a hurricane of this strength before, perhaps its luck is running out.

And across South Carolina.

Warnings and areas affected from www.nhc.noaa.gov/.. —

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo

* Tampa Bay

* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West

* Dry Tortugas

* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River

* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

* Indian Pass to the Anclote River

* All of the Florida Keys

* Flamingo to South Santee River

* Flamingo to Chokoloskee

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida Bay

* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big Pine Key

* Florida Bay

* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River

Rain forecast -

Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima

up to 12 inches.

up to 12 inches. Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local

maxima up to 24 inches.

maxima up to 24 inches. Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with

local maxima of 12 inches.

Storm surge amounts — over 9 feet in many areas far from the coast.

Areas with very high storm surge forecasts —

* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-16 ft

* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood... 6-10 ft

* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...7-11 ft

* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6 ft

* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-7 ft

Northeastern Florida, the Georgia coast and South Carolina also need to prepare, as Hurricane Ian could pick up strength again as it travels over the Atlantic ocean for about 24 hours.

x As bad as #Ian will be for southwestern #Florida, an important trend today is an increasing threat to northeastern Florida.



Ian may now emerge over water east of Florida. Its interaction with a northeasterly belt of cool air could cause high winds and coastal flooding Wed-Thurs: pic.twitter.com/W2v6LY96SF — Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) September 27, 2022

Satellite and radar images of Hurricane Ian

x Hurricane Ian completed an eyewall replacement cycle, perhaps the most remarkable example of an ERC visible from the US radar network in a few years.



Notice how from a storm-centered view, the new eyewall is much larger than the older, spreading impacts over a larger area: pic.twitter.com/PBzsA3EEeO — Tomer Burg (@burgwx) September 28, 2022

Ian’s upper layer effects already reach the entire east coast all the way to Canada.

x Hurricane #Ian continues at Category 3 strength while traveling ever closer to the #Florida Peninsula. This #GOESEast Water Vapor/IR couplet shows a fairly small eye and expansive area of surrounding dry air that the NHC does not expect will weaken #HurricaneIan before landfall. pic.twitter.com/713c52b8EL — UW-Madison CIMSS (@UWCIMSS) September 28, 2022

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Comaprisons with Hurricane Charley

Ian has similarities with hurricane Charley in 2004 which killed 35 people (15 direct deaths) and did $25 billion in damage along a similar track. Even though Charley had 150 mph winds at landfall, it was a much more compact and a much faster moving storm compared to Ian. Ian’s storm surge and inland flood damage is expected to be much greater than Charley’s. yaleclimateconnections.org/…

x Eye diameter of #Ian about 35 miles across, a larger hurricane after Tue night eyewall replacement cycle. Entire extent of hurricane force wind field of Charley 2004 would fit inside Ian’s eye. This will produce a much wider swath of damaging wind, storm surge, flooding rains. pic.twitter.com/DWbRzIY8ps — Dr. Rick Knabb (@DrRickKnabb) September 28, 2022

How a competent and caring administration responds

The Biden Administration has been on top of the developing situation and has been mobilizing resources, without great fanfare, unlike republicans, for whom even a hurricane is an opportunity to score political points and to pad their pockets.

x FEMA Administrator Criswell and I just called Tampa Mayor @JaneCastor, St. Petersburg @MayorKenWelch, and Clearwater Mayor Hibbard to discuss preparations for Hurricane Ian including the efforts we're taking to encourage evacuations and pre-position resources for Florida. pic.twitter.com/aBCvPsa76E — President Biden (@POTUS) September 27, 2022

x In preparation for Hurricane Ian, President Biden has approved a Federal Emergency Declaration and instructed FEMA to ensure that all available federal support is surged to Florida to prepare and respond to the storm.



Watch as @FEMA_Deanne explains: pic.twitter.com/kJL02eOido — The White House (@WhiteHouse) September 27, 2022

x Responders from the National Disaster Medical System deploy with generators, medical tents, equipment, and more. Before #HurricaneIan makes landfall, ASPR's logistics team is deploying tons of medical supplies and equipment that NDMS teams may use during the hurricane response. pic.twitter.com/9D9zXMvqc3 — HHS ASPR (@ASPRgov) September 27, 2022

Hurricanes and Climate Change

The science is clear on the effects of climate change on hurricanes and severe weather, besides other catastrophic repercussions for life on earth. We need to keep reminding and educating the population and decision makers and keep neutralizing the relentless disinformation campaign from the right and the republican party.

It’s good to see more coverage on this issue in the mainstream media.

x "Climate change is helping storms such as Hurricane Ian rapidly gain strength, experts say" by @MatthewRozsa for @Salon: https://t.co/oZjfgD1gQn — Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) September 27, 2022

Prof. Mann -

"These storms are on average 20-30% more intense and destructive, owing to the roughly 1C (2F) warming of the oceans that has taken place so far," Dr. Michael E. Mann, climate scientist and director of the Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media at the University of Pennsylvania, told Salon by email. "They also produce as much as 30% more flooding rainfall due to a combination of more evaporation from a warmer ocean surface and stronger winds that entrain more moisture into the storms."

x The climate crisis is pushing ocean temperatures higher and laying the groundwork for tropical storms to explode at breakneck pace into deadly major hurricanes https://t.co/VsPkdJZ4bV — CNN (@CNN) September 27, 2022

x Hurricane Ian is quickly gaining monstrous strength as it moves over oceans partly heated up by climate change, just like 30 other Atlantic tropical storms since 2017 that became much more powerful in less than a day. https://t.co/Hro2CsKxx7 — The Associated Press (@AP) September 27, 2022

x If the planet’s climate keeps warming at current rates, by the end of this century Atlantic hurricane rainfall will be 24 percent higher than today. (May 2018) https://t.co/kqEMyE9m3s — Scientific American (@sciam) September 27, 2022

But the relentless disinformation campaign from the right on climate change never stops. We have to keep countering it at every step. People are susceptible to repeated lies and juvenile mockery, since the average person does not understand the science of climate change.

x Did Amy Klobuchar just suggest voting for Democrats will stop hurricanes?



"We just did something about climate change for the first time in decades. That's why [Democrats] have to win this as that hurricane bears down on Florida." pic.twitter.com/F9cDc7QAr9 — RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 27, 2022

x This was not a ‘study’. It was effectively an opinion piece by climate deniers published 9 months ago.



Either the consensus of the world’s #climate experts…[are]…wrong, or a couple of nuclear physics dudes in Italy are wrong.” ⁦@MichaelEMann⁩

https://t.co/wKQpIdHfao — 💧Fridays For Future Australia 💧🇺🇦 (@FFF_Aus) September 23, 2022

Epilogue

We are officially in peak Atlantic hurricane season now and there are many more weeks left in the season. So far it has been a relatively quiet season, but one catastrophic hurricane is all it takes change the picture. Hurricane Fiona was already a devastating storm for the Caribbean islands and Nova Scotia. The effects of climate change on ocean currents and ocean temperatures are real and storms are predicted to get stronger and wetter, even if the number of storms does not change much.

Hopefully, areas along the gulf coast of Florida have made adequate preparations. For those further inland, please keep an eye on the weather forecasts and pay attention to local announcements and make preparations before the storm gets too close.

And let’s convince a few more folks to get out and vote for Democrats; that’s the only chance we have to save our precious earth.

Additional links and resources

NHC — www.nhc.noaa.gov Puerto Rico Power outage map — poweroutage.us/... www.fema.gov Real-time aircraft reconnaissance data and lots of other technical info — www.tropicaltidbits.com/… The Atlantic Hurricane season - Sept 22 : Fiona is still a threat while Invest 98L is revving up — www.dailykos.com/… Global Warming and Hurricanes — www.gfdl.noaa.gov/... How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous — yaleclimateconnections.org/… Hurricane Dorian Forecasts, Updates and Science - Part 2 — www.dailykos.com/... How To Tame a Hurricane — www.dailykos.com/ …

Resources

x Find Special Needs Assistance ➡️ https://t.co/alHSdLwPrX



Download Florida 511 Info App ➡️ https://t.co/sDy2Mfbazj



Find State and Local Agency Info ➡️ https://t.co/Yk3H0DBUgO



To Report Price Gouging Related to #HurricaneIan ➡️ 1(866) 9NO-SCAM — The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) September 28, 2022

Ian Is Becoming a Monster. Here are Shelter Resources (Including Pet Friendly) That Could Help — www.dailykos.com/...

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[1] Url: https://dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/28/2125716/-Hurricane-Ian-is-near-Cat-5-as-it-prepares-for-landfall

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