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Hurricane Ian - 9/2/2022 late morning Update [1]
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Date: 2022-09-26
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Ian approximately 8 AM 9/26/2022 (Courtesy: NOAA)
The 5 AM NHC update upgraded Ian to a hurricane. Perhaps this was 6 hours later than some expected — I saw some unusual grousing about the pace of development at one of my go to forums to read un-hyped weather discussion. As these folks were saying the organizations was lacking my method of looking at the surface and 500 mb flow was clearly showing it was getting much better organized, and somewhat rapidly.
The expected rapid intensification has not yet started. Those things are still a guess...the 8 AM update still kept the maximum winds at 75 mph. From my analysis of the surface and 500 mb flow, it looks relatively well stacked, and the surface wind field is starting to have a closed ring of strong winds.
the black lines are the surface flow, white (and the colors) are the 500 mb (via Nullschool)
The east side is clearly stronger, especially at the 500 mb level — so this is not incredibly organized. We’ll see how fast this flow can take advantage of the relaxed shear and copious amounts of oceanic heat.
The models still seem to have central FL in sights:
early cycle dynamic models 2022-09-26 12Z (via Tropical Atlantic)
If you live on the west coast of Florida YOU NEED TO PREPARE NOW. The far west solutions might spare Naples and Fort Myers...the likely truth is not going to be pretty for us. Storm surge and rain will NOT SPARE MUCH OF THE STATE. I’m seeing some projections of 15-20” at places; 10” might be common. A 3 foot surge seems a minimum — it could easily be double that or more.
The wind field will “smear out” as this gets close to Florida, usually creating pockets of tropical storm force winds and tornado’s far from the actual landfall, especially on the east side of the storm.
I’m about as prepared as I can be — need some wooden matches to light my grill, we need some ice for consuming...but have ample water and food and batteries. I’ll start freezing water bottles tonight so they can be used in coolers.
If you can — it helps to have at least 2 big coolers — use one as a “freezer” and try to not open it unless necessary...use the other one as a “refrigerator”. Of course, restrict access to any cooler to “necessary”.
Otherwise, if you lose power, get used to warm water to drink.
Be safe!
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