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Tropical Storm Ian - Rough Analysis 9/25 11 AM EDT [1]

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Date: 2022-09-25

11 AM NHC Forecast Track, 9/25/2022

After 25 years living near Tampa I’ve learned a bit about tropical systems. More than I did as a MS student in Atmospheric Science long ago (~35 years now). Tropical weather was an ugly math problem...we kept to the mid latitudes where the math could be reduced to something easier.

It was a deep lesson back then when one professor — an incredible forecaster AND mathematician — warned that all the fancy vector calculus we used was just a model, and the real atmosphere has a tendency to do what it will regardless of our math.

So, the main thing I do is watch the current status of the storm at the surface and 500 mb (roughly halfway up the atmosphere), and thin out the early cycle models to include only the dynamical models (not the statistical ones). I also drop the Trajectory and Beta models (TAB’s), although sometimes the 3 of them (shallow, medium, deep layers versions) are useful as a suite...another discussion.

Last might I was trying to overlay the 500 mb and surface analysis from nullschool — with some moderate disappointment. What I saw was this — there was a decently defined surface low, but the 500 mb flow was not cut off, and displaced from the center of the surface. I approximated the surface low with the white circle, and the 500 mb flow with the red curve.

from Nullshool — overlay of the surface and 500mb flow 9/24/2022 ~ 10 PM EDT

This morning I discovered that a 2 picture comparison of the overlays, one pane emphasizing a particular level, was better:

This is a storm starting to get it’s dynamic act together

So — the centers are mostly aligned now, the 500 mb flow is now a distinct cut off low. The only dynamic hindrance I see is that the strongest parts of the outer bands north of the center are not quite aligned. They probably will be soon.

Looking at the change in the 12z models (again — the early cycle dynamic models) we see that there has been a shift from predicting a landfall near me in central FL, to the more sparsely populated Big Bend area or the panhandle of this state. Florida still seems the likely target.

Early cycle dynamic models 12z 9/24/2022 (via Tropical Atlantic)

12z early cycle dynamic models 9/25/2022 (again, via Tropical Atlantic)

Not much different really...and if it hits the Big Bend I’ll probably see a big time wind rain event anyway. Makes me glad I started to prepare a couple days ago.

Stay safe and aware!

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/25/2125163/-Tropical-Storm-Ian-Rough-Analysis-9-25-11-AM-EDT

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