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Ukraine Invasion Day 214: nothing short of a miracle to avoid a devastating defeat. [1]
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Date: 2022-09-24
Russia has lost about as many men in Ukraine in seven months as the US did in approximately fifteen years in Vietnam. Putin seems to be micromanaging the war and suffering from a typical problem of autocrats’ mistrust of the military.
Unable to stabilise the frontline after devastating defeats in Izyum and Kupiansk, Russia was forced to retreat along the Oskil and Seversky Donets rivers, leaving itself exposed to further Ukrainian advances and decimating any remnants of morale. Even the most pessimistic observers must admit that the way things are going, Russia needs nothing short of a miracle to avoid a devastating defeat.
Mobilising troops would not strike a casual observer as unusual for a country at war. To understand the full political repercussions of mobilisation for Putin, you must understand the workings of his inner circle.
No leader rules entirely alone. In order to stay in power, they must maintain the support of some proportion of their constituents. Democratic leaders stay in power by winning elections, usually through policy promises. Autocratic leaders, such as Putin, stay in power by securing the continued support of their inner circle, whether through policy or private payoffs. Putin’s inner circle consists of two rival blocs: the heads of the military/security structures and the top-ranking intelligence officers (the FSB). To remain in power, he must maintain their support while keeping the delicate balance between them. If one of the blocs gets too strong, it may become a dangerous adversary and a threat to the regime itself.
[...]
, in which it denied the presence of Russian soldiers and spoke instead of “little green men”. The intelligence elites do best outside the media spotlight, not with the entire world watching, breath held. They need this war to leave the news cycle, or at least drop below the fold, to do their dirty work. The best way to achieve this is by getting Ukraine to enter peace talks, so that Russia can “freeze” the war and win some time. While the generals are clamouring for more cannon fodder, the intelligence elites know that going for broke is rarely the best strategy. Their preference is to tread more lightly, to use wits rather than muscle, to win by deception, misinformation, blackmail and bribery. An example of the FSB at its finest was the 2014 takeover of Crimea , in which it denied the presence of Russian soldiers and spoke instead of “little green men”. The intelligence elites do best outside the media spotlight, not with the entire world watching, breath held. They need this war to leave the news cycle, or at least drop below the fold, to do their dirty work. The best way to achieve this is by getting Ukraine to enter peace talks, so that Russia can “freeze” the war and win some time. If mobilising more troops is key to winning the war, then why has Putin waited this long? Why didn’t he declare mobilisation at the first sign that his “three-day war” plan had hit snags? He waited so long that a longtime member of his inner circle, Ramzan Kadyrov, went on the record calling on him to escalate.
Putin has been hesitant because he knows mobilisation is risky. If all goes to plan, mobilisation could help quickly replenish Russian troops in occupied territories and stop Ukrainian advances. In the medium-to-long term, it could significantly increase Russia’s capacity for a new successful offensive, and with that, force Ukraine to accept peace on Russia’s terms.
www.theguardian.com/…
x “From the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia never had enough infantry—and the extensive losses in all departments made the situation worse over time.”
https://t.co/tdo4gJBmrP — Foreign Affairs (@ForeignAffairs) September 24, 2022
The Russian officers’ concerns proved correct, and after the defeat of the Russian army outside Kyiv, Mr. Putin eased up his control of military planning. He allowed senior generals to create a new strategy focused on massive artillery barrages, American officials said. The new strategy was effectively a grinding war of attrition that played to the Russian military’s strength and succeeded in pushing the army forward in eastern Ukraine.
Since Mr. Putin ordered his commanders to continue fighting in Kherson, the Russian military has tried to halt the Ukrainian advance there. Last week the Russians blew up a dam on the Inhulets River to make the current counteroffensive more difficult.
But Ukrainian strikes have blown up the crossings over the Dnipro River, which has largely cut off Russian troops from their supply lines on the other side. Russians have had to use pontoon bridges to cross the river, only to see them hit by Ukrainian fire, Ukrainian officials said. “They’ve got units in there who, if the Ukrainians break through the lines, will be cut off and surrounded,” said Seth G. Jones, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I cannot overstate how dicey the situation is for them.”
Pulling back past the Dnipro River would likely allow Russian commanders to hold the line in the south with fewer troops. That would give them more latitude to redeploy forces from Kherson to other areas, either pushing back against the Kharkiv counteroffensive in the northeast, solidifying defensive lines in the eastern Donbas region or opening up a new front in the south.
But Mr. Putin has told commanders he will set the strategy.
“In this war there has been a consistent mismatch between Putin’s political objectives and the military means to attain them,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute in Arlington, Va. “At important decision points Putin has procrastinated, refusing to recognize the reality, until the options turned from bad to worse.”
www.nytimes.com/...
x Meanwhile the Ukrainian forces.
The deadliest bushes russians will see. pic.twitter.com/hMqQwYO6yO — Grandpa Yurko 🇺🇦 Дїд Юрко (@yurapalyanytsia) September 24, 2022
x Ukrainian forces shot down four Russian fighter jets today.
4 aircrafts (Su-25, two Su-30 and one Su-34) — WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) September 24, 2022
x An enemy SU-34 was shot down by soldiers of the SSO of Ukraine in one of the areas of the mission. For this, the Igla MANPADS were used.
For reference: SU-34 Russian all-weather, two-seat fighter-bomber.
The cost of one Su-34 aircraft is about $17 million. pic.twitter.com/96R2muvIMj — ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) September 24, 2022
x The stats on Artillery losses have been getting bad for Russia. I think Ukraine is on top on many parts of the front, and Russia is having to use airpower more aggressively to stop attacks.
https://t.co/ahZaNGanE4 — Philistine Hick (@HickPhilistine) September 24, 2022
x The Armed Forces of Ukraine showed a new tranche of the "Russian Lend-Lease", an ammunition for BM-21 "Grad" pic.twitter.com/ixrzqPZ4nn — ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) September 24, 2022
x Dmitry Bulgakov: Putin fires deputy defence chief amid supply failures por Miguel Adolfo Ledo Nass Zambrano Analysts have cited supply chains as a reason why Russia's invasion of Ukraine has faltered.
https://t.co/FTSNuEOnO6 — Pedro Redmont Herdoiza Crespo (@PedroRedmont) September 24, 2022
x #BREAKING Russia facilitates access to citizenship for foreigners serving in Russian army pic.twitter.com/ZdIWop5sZw — AFP News Agency (@AFP) September 24, 2022
x Putin’s mobilization also directly affects international businesses which remain working in Russia. They are now obliged by law to assist authorities in drafting their employees. The choice is either to become accomplices in Putin’s barbaric war or immediately pull out of Russia. — Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) September 24, 2022
The Russian mobilization system is struggling to execute the task Russian President Vladimir Putin set and will likely fail to produce mobilized reserve forces even of the low quality that Putin’s plans would have generated unless the Kremlin can rapidly fix fundamental and systemic problems. Putin and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that the Russian Armed Forces would mobilize combat-ready reservists to quickly stabilize the frontlines and regain the initiative on the battlefield.[1] Milblogger and social media reports, however, show that Russian military recruitment centers, enlistment officials, and local administrations are mobilizing men who do not meet the Kremlin’s stated criteria, especially Shoigu’s promise that mobilization would prioritize men with “combat experience.” Russian opposition outlets and Telegram channels leaked information suggesting that the Kremlin aims to complete this partial mobilization by November 10 and that the Kremlin is seeking to mobilize 1.2 million men instead of the publicly announced 300,000.[2] ISW cannot verify these reports, but significant available information suggests that this mobilization campaign (the first in post-Soviet Russia) is overwhelming an ineffective and unmotivated bureaucratic system and could fail to generate the much-needed combat-ready reserve force in a short time or at all.
www.understandingwar.org/...
x Large numbers of military age Russian men pictured at Vnukovo Airport in the process of fleeing the country following Putin’s announcement of mobilisation pic.twitter.com/NvYlGMWT5a — Business Ukraine mag (@Biz_Ukraine_Mag) September 22, 2022
x A group of Sri Lankans held captive by Russian forces in an agricultural factory in eastern Ukraine said they were beaten and abused for months before escaping on foot as the Russians withdrew from the Kharkiv region.
https://t.co/yLPOkIkTXF — Stars and Stripes (@starsandstripes) September 24, 2022
x I really want as many people as possible to watch these video. Try to imagine yourself in the place of these people. Their cities were occupied by a foreign army and now people with guns come to their apartments and demand to vote for joining Russia. Fake “referendums”. pic.twitter.com/UpqXgP4yT3 — Oleksandra Matviichuk (@avalaina) September 23, 2022
x Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea are Ukraine. No sham "referenda" will change that. — Ambassador Bridget A. Brink (@USAmbKyiv) September 23, 2022
x The Kremlin’s theory of victory, via @jack_watling : Mobilisation will prolong the war so that Russia's economic warfare, escalation threats and political influence campaigns eventually convince Europe and the US to stop supporting Ukraine
https://t.co/P3M89ozPUg — Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) September 24, 2022
[END]
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/24/2124975/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-214-nothing-short-of-a-miracle-to-avoid-a-devastating-defeat
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