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Pandemic Observations -- September 23, US States & Canadian Provinces (Still on Track?): [1]

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Date: 2022-09-24

The Road Ahead?

Despite a 9th straight week of declines in the reported US weekly caseload of new Covid infections, which is now apparently back below 4 million for the first time since late April, and a 7-8 week steady decline in hospitalizations that are now 1/3 lower than their most recent peak, the US weekly death toll still seems intent on charting its own more chaotic course — and actually bounced back above the 3,000 mark this week, putting it just 15% below its recent highs.

Even more disturbing, the US once again accounts for ~25% of the entire global Covid death toll currently — not because our numbers are actually going up, but because most other places are following the expected script and trending lower at a significantly faster pace than we are. So what is behind this rather unfortunate example of American Exceptionalism? The manifest decline in our vaccination efforts relative to most of the rest of the world would seem to offer the simplest explanation, particularly with regard to booster shots.

Ourworldindata has a relatively new metric on vaccinations (total doses administered per 100 population over the past 12 months) that sheds considerable light on the issue, which I should probably make the subject of a separate diary at some point -- but suffice to say that our 66 doses does not compare favorably to the global average of 83.5, let alone countries like Mexico (91), India and Pakistan (95), South America (114, including Brazil), Iran (128), Bangladesh (154), Rwanda (178), Cuba (202), or Vietnam (240).

Note: Don’t be too alarmed by the scary looking percentage increases for California this week since this was just an artifact of last week’s unusually depressed numbers, and probably accounts for the net increase in US deaths.

US States & Canadian Provinces: September 17-23 New Deaths 7-Day D/1M 7-Day Deaths Weekly Change 14-Day Change Change fr Max Canada USA AR NN TN IA NM FL DE MI AL GA NS ID KY AZ PR VA QC WV PA HI WA MN NV IN CA NE MS MA MD OH NH NY BC IL LA OR CO VT MT ON TX WY NB WI NJ AB ME MB NC CT SD UT SC KS NL DC OK MO RI ND SK AK US.Hos 6.7 9.4 26.5 22.2 18.2 18.0 17.6 16.6 15.4 14.7 14.3 13.8 13.4 13.4 13.2 11.3 11.2 10.5 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 8.8 8.7 8.4 8.3 7.9 7.4 7.4 7.3 6.9 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.4 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 252 3,109 80 4 124 57 37 357 15 147 70 146 13 24 59 82 38 90 86 18 128 14 75 55 30 65 381 17 26 58 50 92 10 143 37 88 32 28 37 4 6 81 160 3 4 30 43 21 6 6 44 14 3 10 15 7 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 3,176 -36% 8% 167% -43% 158% 119% 16% 11% 150% -25% 23% -3% -7% 41% -24% 0% 0% -2% -53% -57% -8% 40% -3% 12% 7% 16% 285% 750% -19% 12% -7% -7% -17% -23% 12% -3% -41% 33% 32% 400% 100% 0% 15% -25% 0% -57% -2% -22% -77% -68% -10% -60% -75% -17% -12% -84% -75% 100% -89% -100% 0% -100% -100% -100% -8% 17% -11% 90% 120% 16% 36% -18% -24% -45% 62% 17% 22% 93% 128% -4% 43% -14% -21% 75% 11% 14% 4% 30% 30% 38% -12% -10% -42% 5% -25% 8% 12% 69% 6% -19% 11% 8% -44% 48% -20% 29% -12% -7% 0% -20% 28% -12% -38% 3% 92% 121% -51% -17% 5% -41% -2% -38% 0% -78% -78% -100% 25% -50% -44% -15% -79% -87% -73% -94% -88% -88% -85% -87% -88% -85% -94% -84% -52% -87% -87% -93% -79% -93% -88% -91% -92% -81% -75% -88% -91% -91% -90% -93% -94% -94% -89% -94% -89% -98% -71% -93% -93% -86% -93% -82% -95% -81% -93% -96% -85% -95% -98% -87% -95% -94% -94% -98% -98% -93% -98% -98% -94% -99% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -88% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62

D/1M = New Covid-19 deaths per 1 million population over prior 7 days

C/1M = New Covid-19 cases per 1 million population over prior 7 days

Weekly Change = Net change from previous week's stats

14-Day Change = Net Change from previous 14-day period

Change fr Max = Net change from week of peak deaths or new cases

Bold = States/Provs experiencing significant upward movement in cases and/or deaths

US.Hosp = Serious/Critical cases

NN = Navajo Nation (population estimate 180,000)

USA data derived from worldometer, Canadian data from Canada Covid-19 Interactive Data

US States& Canadian Provinces: September 17-23 New Cases 7-Day C/1M 7-Day cases Weekly Change 14.Day Change Change fr Max Canada USA NC NJ NY WV KY NN MI DE MA PA OK CA WI IL CT MT SC IA OH NH AR ME MN VA AL ID TN SD OR MS NS MD WA KS VT AK WY TX DC LA FL HI CO NB NM IN NE GA QC ON AZ UT PR NV MB AB NL BC MO RI ND SK 460 1,206 1,934 1,891 1,838 1,782 1,779 1,711 1,690 1,538 1,490 1,483 1,432 1,394 1,390 1,371 1,370 1,337 1,300 1,259 1,244 1,242 1,239 1,207 1,184 1,181 1,140 1,126 1,099 1,081 1,077 1,043 995 994 985 954 894 882 881 880 867 859 813 799 765 758 753 739 736 693 587 561 549 536 398 303 277 260 256 127 0 0 0 0 17,327 399,305 20,284 16,795 35,759 3,193 7,950 308 16,901 1,498 10,267 18,981 5,665 55,099 8,092 17,373 4,884 1,429 6,693 3,972 14,536 1,689 3,739 1,623 6,678 10,080 5,587 2,013 7,504 956 4,544 3,103 962 6,012 7,502 2,779 558 645 510 25,523 612 3,992 17,461 1,132 4,407 586 1,580 4,977 1,424 7,353 4,960 8,125 3,999 1,717 1,349 933 377 1,136 134 638 0 0 0 0 -6% -4% -4% 15% 16% -31% -13% -25% -8% 9% 14% 8% -17% 365% -6% -1% -24% 9% -26% -27% -29% 18% -21% -5% 5% -13% -24% 23% -5% -18% 75% -14% -12% -13% 4% -33% 3% -33% 12% -33% 16% -29% -24% -16% -27% 2% -7% -17% -20% -24% 0% 11% -35% -36% -85% -60% 10% 6% 15% 11% -100% 0% -100% -100% -9% -20% -2% 16% 11% -35% -29% -92% 1% 11% 20% 4% -39% -39% -3% -24% 41% 8% -41% -23% -25% 36% -32% 18% -12% -28% -51% 27% -53% -6% -10% -52% -15% -4% -3% -33% 13% -23% -10% -38% 2% -53% -41% -17% -16% -11% -30% -48% -37% -44% -7% -15% -18% -17% -56% -15% -34% -11% -52% -4% -52% -100% 42% -48% -94% -94% -90% -92% -93% -90% -91% -94% -88% -94% -93% -90% -93% -93% -95% -93% -92% -91% -94% -91% -93% -92% -94% -90% -93% -92% -95% -90% -94% -93% -92% -94% -87% -93% -93% -95% -96% -97% -94% -95% -96% -96% -96% -97% -96% -89% -96% -95% -96% -95% -95% -92% -97% -98% -98% -98% -97% -97% -97% -97% -100% -100% -100% -100% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62

Following are the Power Rankings for the top 25 States/Provinces driving the pandemic in the US & Canada in terms of total new cases and new deaths during the past week:

Top 25 States/Provs: September 17-23 New Deaths 7-Day Deaths 14.Day Inc %Tot <<>> New Cases 7-Day Cases 14.Day Inc %Tot CA FL TX MI GA NY PA TN OH VA IL QC AZ ON AR WA AL IN KY MA IA MN MD NC NJ 381 357 160 147 146 143 128 124 92 90 88 86 82 81 80 75 70 65 59 58 57 55 50 44 43 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 1.6% 0.5% 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 11.3% 10.6% 4.8% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 3.8% 3.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 CA NY TX NC PA FL IL MI NJ OH MA VA ON WI KY TN WA GA SC MN MD OK AL IN QC 55,099 35,759 25,523 20,284 18,981 17,461 17,373 16,901 16,795 14,536 10,267 10,080 8,125 8,092 7,950 7,504 7,502 7,353 6,693 6,678 6,012 5,665 5,587 4,977 4,960 0.6% 1.1% 0.8% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.9% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% 13.2% 8.6% 6.1% 4.9% 4.6% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2%

14-Day Inc = Net increase of current 14-day numbers over prior cumulative totals

%Tot = Share of US & Canadian Totals

[END]
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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/24/2125096/-Pandemic-Observations-September-23-US-States-Canadian-Provinces-Still-on-Track

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