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Moneyball for Congressional and State Legislative Races - 2022 - Diary 2 [1]

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Date: 2022-09-24

This is a follow-up to my first diary of the cycle, Moneyball for Congressional and State Legislative Races - 2022 - Diary 1. As promised, here’s the summary of the “reach” legislatures that are not competitive due to gerrymandering (TX, FL, GA, WI). That said, a lot of these could become competitive in the right year, especially if demographic trends hold.

To clarify the way the reach lists work, for all of these states, I chose exactly as many candidates as would be required to have a Democratic majority. In some cases, due to gerrymandering, some of these are really really uncompetitive, but you’ll have to read my spreadsheet to decide whether you want to donate or not.

As a follow-up to my last diary, I created a “competitiveness index” which takes into account the regression formulas that were provided in the last diary, along with the existing PVI, and 2016-2020 swing. I’ve already updated the reach lists on the earlier diary to take into account my index. After the cycle ends, I hope to review my “competitiveness index” and see how well it does compared to the actual results, and will provide the results in a separate diary. Then we can tune it further!

One thing that would help would be to add education levels as an index, and do a multivariate regression, but I can’t find an easy way to gather educational attainment rates for legislative districts on a large scale. If anyone has any ideas, let me know.

Anyway, here’s FL first:

FLORIDA DISTRICT SUMMARY CHAMBER SOLID D COMPETITIVE SOLID R TOTAL SOLID R REQUIRED FOR MAJORITY HOUSE 31 19 70 120 11 SENATE 11 6 23 40 4 Democrats winning every competitive seat in the state house leads to a 50/120 seat minority. Winning every seat in the state senate leads to a 17/40 minority. In both cases, a substantial number of reach seats are required to get a majority in either chamber. x This is the ActBlue link to the competitive FL seats: Not included here (apparently a lot of folks in Florida use Anedot): Katherine Waldron — Lean D— HD-93 — Donate here. Lindsay Cross — Tilt D — HD 60 — Donate here. Jordan Leonard — Tilt D — HD 106 — Donate here. Andy Thomson — Toss-up — HD 113 — Donate here. Terence Davis — Likely R — HD 94 — No campaign page/donation pages available. Lori Berman — Very Likely D — SD 26 — Donate here. x This is the ActBlue link to the reach FL seats: Not included here: Derek Reich — Solid R— HD-73 — Donate here. Dawn Douglas — Solid R — HD 57 — No campaign page/donation pages available. Georgia DISTRICT SUMMARY CHAMBER SOLID D COMPETITIVE SOLID R TOTAL SOLID R REQUIRED FOR MAJORITY HOUSE 72 12 96 180 7 SENATE 21 2 33 56 6 x Democrats winning every competitive seat in the state house leads to a 84/180 seat minority. Winning every seat in the state senate leads to a 23/56 minority. In both cases, a substantial number of reach seats are required to get a majority in either chamber. This is the ActBlue link to the competitive GA seats: Every Georgia democrat in a competitive seat has an ActBlue Account. Good job! x This is the ActBlue link to the reach GA seats: Not included here: Ernie Anaya — Solid R— HD-103 — No campaign page/donation pages available. Matielyn Jones — Solid R — SD 45 — Donate here. Texas DISTRICT SUMMARY CHAMBER SOLID D COMPETITIVE SOLID R TOTAL SOLID R REQUIRED FOR MAJORITY HOUSE 54 12 84 150 10 SENATE 9 3 19 31 4 x Democrats winning every competitive seat in the state house leads to a 66/150 seat minority. Winning every seat in the state senate leads to a 12/31 minority. In both cases, a substantial number of reach seats are required to get a majority in either chamber. This is the ActBlue link to the competitive TX seats: Every Texas democrat in a competitive seat has an ActBlue Account. Good job! x This is the ActBlue link to the reach TX seats: Not included here: Mohamad Maarouf — Solid R— HD-133 — No campaign page/donation pages available. Wisconsin DISTRICT SUMMARY CHAMBER SOLID D COMPETITIVE SOLID R TOTAL SOLID R REQUIRED FOR MAJORITY HOUSE 29 11 59 99 10 SENATE 10 3 20 33 4 x Democrats winning every competitive seat in the state house leads to a 40/99 seat minority. Winning every seat in the state senate leads to a 13/33 minority. In both cases, a substantial number of reach seats are required to get a majority in either chamber. This is the ActBlue link to the competitive WI seats: Every Wisconsin democrat in a competitive seat has an ActBlue Account. Good job! x This is the ActBlue link to the reach TX seats: Every Wisconsin democrat in a reach seat has an ActBlue Account. Good job!

I will also be doing an update to the congressional races here, as well, stay tuned!

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/24/2123819/-Moneyball-for-Congressional-and-State-Legislative-Races-2022-Diary-2

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