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Hurricane Fiona eyes Nova Scotia, TD9 aims at Jamaica, Cuba and Florida [1]

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Date: 2022-09-23

Hurricane Fiona, after ravaging Puertio Rico over the weekend, is not done yet. After passing to the west of Bermuda overnight, it is headed for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, where it might become one of the strongest storms in history to hit that region.

Meanwhile, tropical disturbance Invest 98L off the coast of Venezuela has been renamed as Tropical Disturbance Nine (TD9). It is still relatively weak and disorganized but it is expected to strengthen into a Hurricane as it traverses the warm waters of the Caribbean sea and passes to the west of Jamaica, the Cayman islands, western Cuba and hits Florida from the southwest. It will probably get the name Hermine in the next 24-48 hours (or Ian, if TD10 off the coast of Africa strengthens first).

Satellite images of Fiona and TD9 -

x As Hurricane #Fiona moves away from Bermuda toward Nova Scotia, newly formed Tropical Depression Nine (#TD9) takes aim at the Cayman Islands, Cuba and Florida as a Hurricane, but NHC cautions that forecast uncertainty remains fairly high at this juncture. https://t.co/9QQqmkEnyz pic.twitter.com/5mtcBWiJIj — UW-Madison CIMSS (@UWCIMSS) September 23, 2022

Hurricane Fiona

Hurricane Fiona is packing 125 mph winds as it passed west of Bermuda overnight. Fiona’s movement will speed up and hit the Canadian Atlantic states as a very strong extra-tropical storm over the weekend. Meteorologists are seriously concerned about how Fiona will interact with an upper-level trough and pack 100+ mph winds when it hits Nova Scotia tonight.

The predicted merging of Fiona with an upper-level trough that will create a more dangerous storm —

x Let's talk #Fiona's upcoming Extratropical Transition.



Given current intensity of Fiona & strength of the upcoming upper-level trough dropping in, this could be a *very dynamic* warm-seclusion ET, similar to Teddy in 2020.



Unfortunately this may occur near Canadian provinces. pic.twitter.com/EdpmMVaiTy — Philippe Papin (@pppapin) September 22, 2022

Surface level pressure could reach a historic low of 927 mb for this region -

x Such a broad model consensus on record-setting storm strength is almost unheard of.

Fiona will most likely evolve from hurricane to post-tropical cyclone just hours before landfall, a la Sandy. Either way, Fiona has the potential to cause major havoc. 2/3 — Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) September 21, 2022

Rain forecast -

Bermuda: An additional 1 to 3 inches.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches.

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches.

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches.

Hurricane and TS warnings are up -

x “A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected over parts of the region within 24 hours. Hurricane conditions include (A) sustained winds near 120 km/h or more, and/or (B) significantly elevated water levels and dangerous surf along the coast.”#Fiona #Halifax pic.twitter.com/7cW1bokG0G — Nathan Coleman (@NateTWN) September 23, 2022

Coastal flooding and damage will be high with the predicted wave heights -

x Hurricane #Fiona, as it approaches the Canadian coast, could produce some of the highest waves ever recorded in the Atlantic.



The latest European Wave model has maximum wave heights up to 90 feet (27.4 m)!



This would obviously result in catastrophic coastal damage and erosion. pic.twitter.com/nZKVoinWOk — Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) September 22, 2022

Grocery shelves are emptying, as Halifax prepares for Fiona —

x The scene in the grocery stores in Halifax now. The storm chips are gone (no surprise there!) but stock is good and restocking is ongoing. Everyone is taking this seriously, but not panicking. You Maritimers all rock! @weathernetwork @NateTWN @jwhittalTWN #hurricanFiona pic.twitter.com/gwbZjyqhqw — Mark Robinson (@StormhunterTWN) September 23, 2022

Lines for propane in Halifax are long -

Tropical Disturbance Nine (TD9)

There is still a good amount of uncertainty on the path and strength of tropical disturbance 9, currently off the coast of Venezuela, but most models predict that it will enter the Gulf as a strong hurricane; western Jamaica, Cayman Island, western Cuba and Florida lie along its projected track.

The time to prepare is now.

This is the predicted path, timeline and strength of TD9, according to the NHC. Wind speeds will most likely increase beyond the values shown below.

There is still the possibility of a more western track -

x GFS in green. EURO in red



Difference is in how soon Invest #98L develops. If it forms & strengthens sooner, as EURO suggests, it gets picked up by a dip in the jet stream to #Florida. If it's slower to develop & strengthen, the trough misses it



UK Met (black) splits difference pic.twitter.com/6RoJ1BztOx — John Morales (@JohnMoralesTV) September 22, 2022

TD9 has the potential to be a very damaging storm and there are quite a few possibilities for where it will make landfall in the Gulf coast region. Significant development isn't expected until this weekend.

x There's a lot of uncertainty and we will see changes, but you should know a couple things about #98L as of right now:

1. This storm does have real potential to impact the US mid/late next week.

2. E Gulf is more at risk than W Gulf.

3. The storm's intensity may be significant. pic.twitter.com/XMlYubRbk7 — Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) September 21, 2022

Ocean heat content is high in the Caribbean region, which will fuel the development of TD9 —

x But as I've mentioned, the western Caribbean is primed to support explosive development... hopefully that doesn't happen. pic.twitter.com/Uv51Nn6dnD — Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) September 23, 2022

From yaleclimateconnections.org/...

Odds for development will rise on Saturday, when Fiona’s upper-level outflow will no longer be affecting 98L. The system will then will be in the central Caribbean, where ideal conditions for development are expected: very warm water (at least 30 degrees C or 86 degrees Fahrenheit) with a high heat content, light to moderate wind shear, excellent outflow channels aloft, and a moist atmosphere (mid-level relative humidity around 70 percent). The entire northern half of the Caribbean has been free of tropical cyclones all season, so these untouched waters (running about 0.5 degrees Celsius or 1 degree Fahrenheit above average for late September) will be particularly ripe for supporting any well-organized cyclone with favorable atmospheric conditions.

Rain forecast for TD9 — www.nhc.noaa.gov/… -

Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Northern Venezuela and Northern Colombia: Additional 1 to 2 inches

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maximum up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14 inches.

Storms around the world

x After a slow start, the global tropical cyclone season is finally kicking into high gear, led by the active Atlantic basin.



6 tropical cyclones are currently active globally, along with 4 other areas monitored for potential development. pic.twitter.com/W6476E1AIG — Tomer Burg (@burgwx) September 23, 2022

Hurricane Monitoring

We are all familiar with many of the tools and technologies used to monitor hurricanes and predict their development - weather satellites, weather models and computer simulations, buoys and sensors and hurricane aircraft. There is one new technology that has been deployed since last year — drone sail ships that can provide surface measurements of wind, waves, salinity, temperature and pressure inside a hurricane. NOAA in collaboration with SailDrone is deploying 7 ocean drones this year - research.noaa.gov/... x Special hurricane research being run out of St. Petersburg. Check it out now! #flwx #swfl https://t.co/BbnJdIuDJz — NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) September 15, 2022 Here is a fascinating video captured by Saildrone from inside Hurricane Fiona - x INCREDIBLE: Rare footage of ocean drone swaying and lunging amid Category 4 #Fiona's 50 FOOT WAVES just released by @saildrone and @NOAA.



Full story/background: https://t.co/fh6UrALkXG pic.twitter.com/4s4dSRF51m — Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) September 22, 2022 Here is an example of real-time data from the Saildrone in Fiona - x Yet another Saildrone intercept. Inner core observations of #Fiona. This is drone ID KS1078. They are getting good at this @saildrone pic.twitter.com/ibGJfELvZm — Derrick Herndon (@DerrickHerndon2) September 22, 2022 An overview from NOAA of ocean observing instruments used for monitoring hurricanes, including saildrones and underwater gliders. x x YouTube Video Hurricanes and Climate Change

It’s good to see more coverage on this issue.

Prof. Mann -

Climate change is super-charging these storms, making them stronger, and packing greater flooding potential," Mann wrote to Salon. "The intensification of Fiona to a strong Category 4 storm is part of larger trend toward more intense hurricanes, and warmer oceans mean more moisture in these storms, and more flooding when they make landfall (like we saw with Fiona in Puerto Rico)."

x While scientists haven't yet determined whether climate change influenced [Hurricane] Fiona's strength or behavior, there's strong evidence that these devastating storms are getting worse.



Here's why.



Via @Reuters https://t.co/F1d6zYtXMK — Conservation Intl (@ConservationOrg) September 21, 2022

From www.reuters.com/… -

IS CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTING HURRICANES?

Yes, climate change is making hurricanes wetter, windier and altogether more intense. There is also evidence that it is causing storms to travel more slowly, meaning they can dump more water in one place.

But the relentless disinformation campaign on climate change from the right never stops.

x This was not a ‘study’. It was effectively an opinion piece by climate deniers published 9 months ago.



Either the consensus of the world’s #climate experts…[are]…wrong, or a couple of nuclear physics dudes in Italy are wrong.” ⁦@MichaelEMann⁩

https://t.co/wKQpIdHfao — 💧Fridays For Future Australia 💧🇺🇦 (@FFF_Aus) September 23, 2022

Epilogue

We are officially in peak Atlantic hurricane season now and there are many more weeks left in the season. So far it has been a relatively quiet season, but things can change rapidly. The effects of climate change on ocean currents and ocean temperatures are real and storms are predicted to get stronger and wetter, even if the number of storms does not change much.

Please keep an eye on the weather forecasts and pay attention to local announcements and make preparations before the storm gets too close.

And let’s convince a few more folks to get out and vote for Democrats; that’s the only chance we have to save our precious earth.

Additional links and resources

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