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The Atlantic Hurricane season - Update 1 : Fiona is still a threat while Invest 98L is revving up [1]

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Date: 2022-09-22

Hurricane Fiona, after ravaging Puertio Rico over the weekend, is not done yet. It is strengthening and making its way to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. A few other storms have popped up in the Atlantic; the one to watch for is invest 98L (the red cross below Fiono), which is predicted to enter the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters and Bon Henson have an excellent summary of the current situation at yaleclimateconnections.org/… -

x Cat 4 hurricane? Check. Possibly destructive landfall in Canada? Check. New tropical storm? Check. Unsettling new disturbance headed for the Caribbean? Check. Over just a few days, the Atlantic has gone from crickets to cacophony. @CC_Yale https://t.co/4BhjpH6riu — Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) September 21, 2022

Category 4 hurricane Fiona will pass Bermuda to its west and threaten Nova Scotia over the weekend. Invest 98L is entering the Caribbean and will likely strengthen as it heads for the Gulf coast region. Tropical storm Gaston is not a threat to major population centers The 2 tropical waves moving off Africa are unlikely to be threats, but bear watching. There are a few new storms brewing in the Pacific as well.

Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico is still reeling from the damage caused by Hurricane Fiona. Rain amounts are staggering -

x [SEP20] #Fiona

Latest Radar Total Estimate from Hurricane Fiona (Friday Afternoon to Today morning).

Estimados de Radar más recientes totales del Huracán Fiona (viernes hasta la mañana de hoy). #prwx #usviwx pic.twitter.com/trzGnESaKd — NWS San Juan (@NWSSanJuan) September 20, 2022

The power situation is still dire -

Add to that, the misery of excessive heat -

x SEP 22

🚨EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM.

Expect heat index values between 102 and 114 degrees.

☀️IMPACTS...High temperatures and humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. Heat exhaustion likely with prolonged exposure. #prwx pic.twitter.com/CYp03dvnBu — NWS San Juan (@NWSSanJuan) September 22, 2022

The saving grace is that this time we have a competent and caring government -

x Partners Spring Into Action: @NMEADpr, Aguas Buena's municipal Office for Emergency Management & Puerto Rico’s National Guard stabilize a collapsed road due to a run-off caused by Hurricane #Fiona. @FEMA will be there until the job is done. pic.twitter.com/m0eIeaWzEu — FEMA Region 2 (@femaregion2) September 21, 2022

x FEMA generators are moved to a staging area in Ponce, Puerto Rico, on Sept. 21, 2022, to support a Temporary Emergency Power mission assignment from @fema to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers following Hurricane #Fiona. pic.twitter.com/9a3GmaBC8A — USACE HQ (@USACEHQ) September 21, 2022

Hurricane Fiona

Hurricane Fiona is packing 130 mph winds and moving slowly towards Bermuda. Bermuda will not face a direct hit but will likely experience tropical storm winds and storm surge.

x Here's the latest #GOESEast 1-minute IR and Visible imagery of Category 4 Hurricane #Fiona. Updates at https://t.co/JlGSqgHesk pic.twitter.com/c8ittG0QLA — UW-Madison CIMSS (@UWCIMSS) September 21, 2022

Fiona will speed up and hit the Canadian Atlantic states as a very strong extra-tropical storm over the weekend. Meteorologists are seriously concerned about how Fiona will interact with an upper-level trough and pack 100+ mph winds when it hits Nova Scotia.

x Such a broad model consensus on record-setting storm strength is almost unheard of.

Fiona will most likely evolve from hurricane to post-tropical cyclone just hours before landfall, a la Sandy. Either way, Fiona has the potential to cause major havoc. 2/3 — Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) September 21, 2022

x The lowest pressure ever recorded in Nova Scotia is 951 mb (and for all of Canada is 940 mb). EVERY reliable model is well below those when #Fiona comes ashore. It's likely to be a once-in-a-lifetime type of storm. pic.twitter.com/SnW7b3w4Qy — Craig Ceecee (@CC_StormWatch) September 22, 2022

x Let's talk #Fiona's upcoming Extratropical Transition.



Given current intensity of Fiona & strength of the upcoming upper-level trough dropping in, this could be a *very dynamic* warm-seclusion ET, similar to Teddy in 2020.



Unfortunately this may occur near Canadian provinces. pic.twitter.com/EdpmMVaiTy — Philippe Papin (@pppapin) September 22, 2022

Rain forecasts for Fiona -

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches.

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches.

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches.

Invest 98L

There is still a good amount of uncertainty on the path and strength of Invest 98L, currently off the coast of Venezuela, but most models predict that it will enter the Gulf as a strong hurricane and Mexican and US Gulf coast states need to be on alert.

x [Weds, 9/21 Evening] Update on invest 98L:



Forecast track and intensity uncertainty remains large, and it is still too early to narrow down any one particular solution. Interests from the Yucatan Peninsula to the US East Coast should continue to monitor the forecast. pic.twitter.com/fVS31fZKXq — Tomer Burg (@burgwx) September 21, 2022

Invest 98L has the potential to be a very damaging storm and there are quite a few possibilities for where it will make landfall in the Gulf coast region. Significant development isn't expected until this weekend.

x There's a lot of uncertainty and we will see changes, but you should know a couple things about #98L as of right now:

1. This storm does have real potential to impact the US mid/late next week.

2. E Gulf is more at risk than W Gulf.

3. The storm's intensity may be significant. pic.twitter.com/XMlYubRbk7 — Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) September 21, 2022

Ocean heat content is high in the Caribbean region, which will fuel the development of Invest 98L -

x Looking at the ocean heat content, we see a powder keg of energy sitting untapped in the western Caribbean. This could be an important player in the potential for intensification of #98L in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. https://t.co/IVfOq4y0rv pic.twitter.com/YZ8vPLqSTx — Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) September 21, 2022

From yaleclimateconnections.org/...

Odds for development will rise on Saturday, when Fiona’s upper-level outflow will no longer be affecting 98L. The system will then will be in the central Caribbean, where ideal conditions for development are expected: very warm water (at least 30 degrees C or 86 degrees Fahrenheit) with a high heat content, light to moderate wind shear, excellent outflow channels aloft, and a moist atmosphere (mid-level relative humidity around 70 percent). The entire northern half of the Caribbean has been free of tropical cyclones all season, so these untouched waters (running about 0.5 degrees Celsius or 1 degree Fahrenheit above average for late September) will be particularly ripe for supporting any well-organized cyclone with favorable atmospheric conditions.

Hurricanes and Climate Change

It’s good to see more coverage on this issue.

Prof. Mann -

Climate change is super-charging these storms, making them stronger, and packing greater flooding potential," Mann wrote to Salon. "The intensification of Fiona to a strong Category 4 storm is part of larger trend toward more intense hurricanes, and warmer oceans mean more moisture in these storms, and more flooding when they make landfall (like we saw with Fiona in Puerto Rico)."

x While scientists haven't yet determined whether climate change influenced [Hurricane] Fiona's strength or behavior, there's strong evidence that these devastating storms are getting worse.



Here's why.



Via @Reuters https://t.co/F1d6zYtXMK — Conservation Intl (@ConservationOrg) September 21, 2022

From www.reuters.com/… -

IS CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTING HURRICANES?

Yes, climate change is making hurricanes wetter, windier and altogether more intense. There is also evidence that it is causing storms to travel more slowly, meaning they can dump more water in one place.

Epilogue

We are officially in peak Atlantic hurricane season now and there are many more weeks left in the season. So far it has been a relatively quiet season, but things can change rapidly. The effects of climate change on ocean currents and ocean temperatures are real and storms are predicted to get stronger and wetter, even if the number of storms does not change much.

Please keep an eye on the weather forecasts and pay attention to local announcements and make preparations before the storm gets too close.

And let’s convince a few more folks to get out and vote for Democrats; that’s the only chance we have to save our precious earth.

Additional links and resources

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/22/2124497/-Current-and-upcoming-Atlantic-Hurricanes-and-Storms-Update-1

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