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Russian Reservists? ISW concludes "Meh" [1]
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Date: 2022-09-21
Shoigu and Pu-gu
INSTITUTE For the Study of War (ISW), which puts out much of the information which we’re relying on here at DKos, issued a report titled, “Explainer on Russian Conscription, Reserve, and Mobilization” in March this year. www.understandingwar.org/...
Though this report reflects ISW’s estimates of Russian reserve capabilities as of March, I’m struggling to see how anything could have, uh, “improved” very much for them in the meantime.
Some passages in that report:
The cadre-and-reserve units of the Russian Armed Forces are maintained at a low readiness with a limited number of professional staff and conscripts, with the expectation that they would be staffed with reservists in the event of mobilization. [2] The Russians have already used many cadre-and-reserve units in Ukraine, and they have not performed well against the Ukrainians, with some units suffering heavy losses. Russia does not likely have a large reserve of highly skilled contract units remaining, although there are probably some uncommitted forces.
I can’t help but wonder what use 45 year old overweight reservists, on a steady diet of cheap booze, cigarettes and couch-potatoism, could possible be, and if they haven’t fired a weapon in twenty years. How much training do any of them ever get?
Not much, according to ISW:
The Russian reserve has over two million former conscripts and contract servicemen on paper, but few are actively trained or prepared for war.[11] Historically, only 10 percent of reservists receive refresher training after completing their initial term of service. [12] Russia lacks the administrative and financial capacity to train reservists on an ongoing basis. According to a 2019 RAND analysis, Russia only had 4,000 to 5,000 troops in what would be considered an active reserve in the Western sense, meaning soldiers attending regular monthly and annual training. [13] Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has repeatedly stated that the Russian Armed Forces hoped to have 80,000-100,000 active reserve members. [14]
Of course, how excited will these guys be when they are called back from whatever they are doing as civilians? to hunker down in a muddy, freezing trench in Donbas, with the only music being ka-BAM any old time during their miserable day at the office?
ISW says it looks as if the Rooskies have had trouble interesting anyone in this:
The Russian Armed Forces sought to create exclusively reservist units but likely did not accomplish its goals due to low engagement. [21] The Russian Defense Ministry hoped to recruit more than 100,000 reservists starting in August 2021, but it is unlikely the Kremlin was able to achieve its goals on such a short timeline.
Some bottom lines:
Russia is likely rapidly exhausting the manpower it can readily use to generate additional effective combat power even as its forces lose combat effectiveness in Ukraine amid high losses. Russian efforts to mobilize more manpower can bring more people into Russian combat units, but those people are unlikely to be well-enough trained or motivated to generate large amounts of new combat power. // A declaration of martial law and general mobilization would not overcome the structural challenges of Russia’s hybrid cadre-and-reserves and contract-soldier system. Creating cohesive fighting units cannot be accomplished overnight. Replacing individual combat casualties in Ukraine with recalled reservists who have gone years without military training is unlikely to dramatically increase Russian combat power.
**SPECIAL word to DKos armed service veterans: what do you think? Please weigh in!
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/21/2124413/-Russian-Reservists-ISW-concludes-Meh
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