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Abbreviated pundit roundup: The pro-fish candidate gears up for an Alaskan November [1]
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Date: 2022-09-21
x Male GOP nominee tells female Dem Senator focusing on the loss of abortion rights to “get over it.” That should take care of any gender gap issues he’s facing. Can’t imagine how any NH woman-in an overwhelmingly pro choice state-would find that condescending or dismissive.
https://t.co/GBjwSL8fj6 — Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) September 19, 2022
Susan J Demas/Slate:
Dixon’s ‘parents’ rights’ message: You’re only a real mom if you vote GOP What a kick in the face to millions of moms in Michigan and beyond Just over 20 years ago, I gave birth to my first child early on in my journalism career. In the years that followed, I would be told by several editors, some who were trying to be helpful and others who appeared to still reside in the Stone Age, that my decision to start a family with my husband was a very bad professional move. I pushed on, as women have to do, and worked my way into covering state and national politics. By that time, I was a single mom who had no choice but to bring my daughter to night and weekend events I was expected to cover (which some of my male colleagues sniped was unprofessional, as they happily left most of the parenting to their wives). At one event, I saw then-state Sen. Gretchen Whitmer juggling her kids and we locked eyes, as moms who get the struggle do. I went back to my office and mentioned that moment. An older male reporter rolled his eyes and declared: “I knew she wasn’t a serious person and would never go anywhere in politics when she got pregnant after getting elected.” That was about 15 years ago. That punditry, of course, hasn’t aged well, as Whitmer is now the 49th governor of Michigan.
x Trump's bluff (and Cannon's incompetence) called on declassification issue. Trump’s team also whining that Dearie is moving expeditiously. If Trump bet on Dearie dragging his feet, he miscalculated. If Cannon wanted to avoid embarrassment, she failed.
https://t.co/ve5im0M4G6 — Jennifer "Pro-privacy" Rubin (@JRubinBlogger) September 20, 2022
Jennifer Rubin/WaPo:
Nazi analogies are dangerous. But they are increasingly relevant today. For a long time, politicians, media and Jewish organizations agreed it was virtually never appropriate to analogize modern political movements to Nazis or compare today’s human rights atrocities to the Holocaust. If every right-wing politician was dubbed a Nazi and every inhumane policy decision was compared to the Holocaust, the memory of the historical crimes against the Jewish people would be cheapened. Then came the rise of Donald Trump, replete with racist rhetoric, demonization of immigrants, overt antisemitism, grand conspiracy theories, frightful mass rallies and incitement to violence for political purposes.
x The latest @ajc poll paints a bleak picture for Georgia Democrats in November, with every statewide candidate aside from U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock facing a sizable deficit less than two months before the election. #gapol
https://t.co/bOj2ZwlG0B — Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) September 20, 2022
This poll looks at likely voters. Marist looks a tad better and looks at registered voters. Who’s right? Who’s a likely voter this year? Stay tuned.
David Byler/WaPo:
This little-known election predictor should worry Democrats According to pollster John Couvillon, 52 percent of 2022 primary voters cast ballots in GOP races, while 48 percent voted in Democratic races. That’s a good sign for Republicans. High primary turnout signals enthusiasm for the general election — and the party with the stronger primary turnout typically does better in the midterms. We don’t yet know whether this pattern will repeat in November. But a thorough examination of the data shows that Republicans do have a primary turnout advantage — even considering Dobbs and the other complexities of this election cycle.
Except when they don’t. Couvillon is a good pollster, but the n here is smallish and other factors sometimes apply (i.e., defending incumbents mean a less interesting primary; see New Hampshire).
Nonetheless, it brings up an interesting point about parallel elections.
Democrats are motivated by abortion and the defense of democracy. Republicans are motivated by crime and immigration. Everyone cares about the price of gas and eggs.
So the cliches of elections were never more true: Candidates matter, turnout will decide it, and the cross-currents are hard to predict.
x Our takeaways are consistent with the new NYT/Siena: in most states, Latino support for Dems has neither declined since 2020 nor rebounded. Latino voters are in limbo — but Rs aren't closing the deal. Great uncertainty in the vote, and in the polling!
https://t.co/tbi5EVWjGv — Carlos Odio (@carlosodio) September 19, 2022
Politico:
‘Huge mistake’: DeSantis’ migrant transports could undercut support in South Florida The move by DeSantis dominated the radio and television airwaves in South Florida — where large swaths of Hispanic voters live. Democrat Charlie Crist, who is challenging DeSantis, on Saturday rushed out a new digital ad targeting Hispanics and the Venezuelan community as part of a six-figure buy pounding DeSantis over his attention-getting move. “From a Miami perspective, it’s a huge mistake,” said state Sen. Annette Taddeo, a Democrat challenging incumbent Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.). “All these Republicans — including my opponent — historically talk about socialism and communism and that we are standing up to these horrible dictators. The migrants are fleeing exactly what Republicans say they are fighting against.”
x If you report on cult-like rallies and post photos of Trump's audience in a stage-managed production, while the back 1/3 of a small arena (capacity <10K) is empty, you should mention that, too. Otherwise, you further the illusion of massive support.
https://t.co/gTWaOQo7PF — Andrea Pitzer (@andreapitzer) September 18, 2022
Zack Beauchamp/Vox:
The Republican Party is an authoritarian outlier Compared to center-right parties in developed democracies, the GOP is dangerously far from normal. Experts on comparative politics say the GOP is an extremist outlier, no longer belonging in the same conversation with “normal” right-wing parties like Canada’s Conservative Party (CPC) or Germany’s Christian Democratic Party (CDU). Instead, it more closely resembles more extreme right parties — like Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in Hungary or Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP in Turkey — that have actively worked to dismantle democracy in their own countries. The Supreme Court saga can’t be considered in isolation. It is symptomatic of a profound brokenness in American politics, one party dragging us away from the developed-world political standards we aspire to and towards a fight over the most basic of democratic principles: whether power should be shared. And that’s a disaster for American democracy. “The only way we move forward is when Republicans reform, and cease to be an increasingly authoritarian white nationalist party,” says Steven Levitsky, a Harvard professor and the co-author (with Daniel Ziblatt) of How Democracies Die.
WaPo:
Trump lawyers acknowledge Mar-a-Lago probe could lead to indictment Explaining whether Trump declassified documents could be ‘a defense’ to a future criminal charge, attorneys say Trump’s lawyers have repeatedly suggested in court filings that the former president could have declassified the documents — but they have not actually asserted that he did so. In Monday’s filing, Trump’s lawyers wrote that they don’t want Dearie to force Trump to “fully and specifically disclose a defense to the merits of any subsequent indictment without such a requirement being evident in the District Court’s order” — a remarkable statement that acknowledges at least the possibility that the former president or his aides could be criminally charged.
In the above piece, Trump claims protection from Judge Aileen Cannon. He thinks what we think.
x Tomorrow at noon: Trump’s response due in 11th Circuit
Tomorrow at 2PM: Dearie convenes hearing, open to public
Puts Trump in a tough spot. If he tells 11th Cir maybe he declassified,or just b/c Gov says it’s classified doesn’t mean it is, he can get whipsawed in Dearie ‘s court — Harry Litman (@harrylitman) September 20, 2022
Here’s a taste of some insight into how long things take when legally working with classified documents:
Secrets and Laws/Twitter:
Here we go:
–Since [Special Master] Dearie is still a judge, he won’t have to be cleared (the government doesn’t require clearances for federal judges). But any staff he wants to hire will have to be cleared and then read-in to the various compartments at issue. –Trump’s counsel will have to be cleared (likely not all of them; I’m also dubious that Trusty’s clearance is active). They’ll receive what’s called a “limited security approval.” I could see DOJ objecting to Corcoran since he has exposure or at least is a witness. –They’ll have to figure out where to securely store the classified documents (in a SCIF) so Dearie, Trump’s counsel, and even Trump himself can access them. Dearie will want them in Brooklyn. Trusty is in DC. Kise is in Florida. –The documents will have to be copied and securely transported to those SCIF locations. You can’t just email TS/SCI/SAP records, even on a classified computer network. Given the volume and lack of infrastructure, they'll likely need to be transported by hand.
This is why Trump thought this was a winner for delay. However, Judge Raymond Dearie said “get your arguments together by yesterday,” and it may be that if Trump can’t prove he declassified documents, he doesn’t get them back however long the delay.
[END]
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