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Ukraine Invasion Day 210: Crimea is always in play regardless of sham referenda [1]
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Date: 2022-09-20
Continued combat losses compel Russia to try legitimating its annexed territories in the hope for negotiated settlements that might let them keep their imperialist spoils. Even then, there's the issue of the port of Sevastopol.
After weeks of battlefield setbacks in Ukraine, Moscow appears to have buckled under pressure and plowed ahead with a new phase in the war: urgent “referendums” to annex stolen Ukrainian land and harsh prison terms for defiant troops.
Recent Ukrainian counter-offensive successes are further reducing the already poor morale among Russian units that had been considered elite before February 24. Independent Belarusian media outlet Vot Tak posted images of intercepted documents left behind by Russian soldiers of Unit 31135 of the 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division as they fled Izyum en masse. [4] The signed documents (dated to August 30, prior to Ukraine’s counter-offensive in Kharkiv on September 7) include written pleas to commanders of Unit 31135 to dismiss the letters’ authors due to persistent “physical and moral fatigue.” [5] Ukrainian intelligence claimed that 90% of the personnel of the 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment wrote damning reports on the state of morale as early as May 23, 2022. [6] The 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division is one of three divisions of the 1st Guards Tank Army, which, prior to the current war in Ukraine, was considered Russia’s premier mechanized force and was to be Russia’s key force in a large-scale conventional war with NATO. [7] The intercepted letters indicate pervasive morale issues among Russia’s most elite units and the degradation of Russia’s conventional capabilities against NATO.
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued ground attacks south of Bakhmut on September 19. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks around Mykolaivka Druha (18km south of Bakhmut), Kurdyumivka (20km southwest of Bakhmut), Zaitseve (12km southeast of Bakhmut), and Vesela Dolyna (8km southeast of Bakhmut). [25] Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group fighters took control of the Donbasskaya 750 electrical substation, about 12km southeast of Bakhmut, although ISW cannot independently verify these claims. [26] Russian forces additionally fired on Ukrainian positions along the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontlines. [27] Several Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops are conducting counter-offensive operations southwest of Donetsk City near the border with eastern Zaporizhia Oblast. [28] ISW cannot independently confirm claims of Ukrainian counterattacks in western Donetsk Oblast, but growing concern amongst Russian sources regarding Ukrainian actions may prompt Russian forces to reallocate forces to this area.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Eastern Ukraine: (Vovchansk-Kupyansk-Izyum-Lyman Line)
Ukrainian forces likely continued to consolidate their gains on the eastern bank of the Oskil River on September 19. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops destroyed a Ukrainian grouping in Dvorichne, a settlement on the left bank of the Oskil River near the Kharkiv-Luhansk border and approximately 40km south of the Russian border. [8] Another Russian source similarly noted that Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian pontoon crossing near Dvorichne and that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are operating in the area. [9] These unconfirmed Russian claims suggest that Ukrainian troops have continued limited and localized operations to cross the Oskil River and threaten Russian positions on the opposing bank. A Russian source additionally noted that Ukrainian troops are strengthening their grouping in Kharkiv Oblast using captured Russian T-72 tanks, suggesting that the initial panic of the counter-offensive led Russian troops to abandon higher-quality equipment in working order, rather than the more damaged equipment left behind by Russian forces retreating from Kyiv in April, further indicating the severity of the Russian rout. [10]
Ukrainian forces likely continued offensive operations along the Lyman-Yampil-Bilohorivka line on September 19. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed that fighting is ongoing in Yarova, 20km northwest of Lyman, confirming that Ukrainian troops likely advanced eastward from previously captured positions in Sviatohirsk. [11] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are still in control of Yampil and Lyman, but that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are operating along the entire Lyman-Yampil-Bilohorivka line. [12] Geolocated combat footage confirms that Ukrainian troops have retaken Bilohorivka, which lies along the Donetsk-Luhansk Oblast border and within 20km of the Lysychansk-Severodonetsk area. [13]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in full control of Bilohorivka. The liberation of Luhansk region is underway.
The flag of Ukraine has been raised over Yarova in the north of Donetsk region. Ukrainian defenders battle retreating rashist militants on the outskirts of Drobysheve. pic.twitter.com/XNI2D02isG — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) September 19, 2022
Supporting Effort- Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces did not conduct any ground attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast west of Hulyaipole and continued routine shelling against Ukrainian positions on September 19. [29] Ukraine’s Zaporizhia Regional Military Administration reported that Russian forces shelled critical infrastructure and residential areas across the oblast. [30] Ukrainian Zaporizhia Regional State Administration head Oleksandr Starukh reported that Russian S-300 missiles struck a transformer substation and several villages in central Zaporizhia Oblast. [31]
Official Ukrainian forces reported several Russian strikes on Mykolayiv City and the surrounding areas on September 19. [32] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that six S-300 missiles and three Smerch (MLRS) rockets struck industrial and civilian facilities in Mykolayiv City on September 19. [33] Local city authorities reported that the Russian strikes damaged several buildings and a segment of the city tram network. [34]
www.understandingwar.org/...
“Today we want to give a shout-out to a unique entity,” the Ukraine Defense Ministry tweet read, before pointing to an unusually named group — the North Atlantic Fellas Organization. www.washingtonpost.com/…
x Clearly the only rational response to a pack of cartoon dogs is to nuke the country they are defending.🙄
https://t.co/IlVIeBoka2 — Khashoggi’s Ghost 🇺🇦🌻 (@UROCKlive1) September 20, 2022
x The last two weeks have answered a central question of the Russo-Ukraine War; can Ukraine undertake the offensives required to liberate their people & reoccupy their territory? They have answered this question emphatically with their Kharkiv offensive. 1/19 pic.twitter.com/zBgdMVtJgC — Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) September 20, 2022
2/ During this offensive, I had the opportunity to visit #Ukraine and to speak with high level military and government officials. I took away three key observations from the visit. During this offensive, I had the opportunity to visitand to speak with high level military and government officials. I took away three key observations from the visit.
3/ First, the Ukrainians are competent. This is a gross understatement. No military this century has had to fight across all the domains of war concurrently, and do so against a larger and better armed adversary. With successful Kharkiv operation, Ukraine turns the war in its favor
4/ Their most important preparation for this war was not physical but intellectual. They re-trained their troops away from Soviet centralised command methods to adopt more decentralised C2. This has been a clear difference between the two belligerents.
5/ Beyond this, the Ukrainians have adopted what I have described elsewhere as a strategy of corrosion. They have attacked the Russians at their weak points constantly, destroyed their logistics, and slowly killed as many Russian battlefield leaders as possible.
6/ At the strategic level, their global influence campaign has set a new benchmark for effectiveness. This Ukrainian competence has resulted in a military institution that is now without peer in the art and science of 21st century warfare.
7/ Second, the Ukrainians are proud of their national effort - military, civil, diplomatic and informational - to defend their nation against the depredations of the murderous, yet bungling, Russian Army.
8/ It is not a pride that features flag waving and empty patriotic gestures. It is a quiet, humble pride that one finds in the alert posture of every soldier, and confident step of the officials and military officers with whom I met.
9/ Finally, the Ukrainians are confident. They know they can win this war. Zelensky stated that “we don’t believe there is compromise when it comes to Russia. There are only conditions, especially the departure of Russia from Ukraine.”
10/ Partially, this is a result of their achievements in the Battles of Kyiv, Kharkiv and elsewhere. The Ukrainians have seized the strategic initiative in this war, and are taking back huge swathes of their territory from the Russians.
11/But there is another more vital source of their confidence; the Ukrainians know exactly what they are fighting for. They fight for their people and their country. And they believe strongly that they are fighting for the larger idea that all democracies matter.
12/ Every single Ukrainian interlocutor I met with in Kyiv had but a single message; give us the right tools in the right quantity to get the job done. They know they can beat the Russians, but appreciate that this is predicated on continued western aid.
13/ The coming winter is an opportunity for the west to surge its support to Ukraine. President Zelensky noted in our talks, “we are not after countries compromising their own security, but we need more military assistance.”
14/ There was a consistent message in what is needed: air defence; tanks and armoured infantry fighting vehicles; long range fires; soldier equipment; UAVs; and, counter UAV systems.
15/ Some in the west talk of the limits of Ukraine to absorb additional military aid. But Ukrainians know themselves, and this war, better than any western official, and have mastered modern war to a degree not achieved in any western military. We should defer to their judgement.
16/ There is much more we can do to support them. I have proposed that my own country send more armoured vehicles and equipment, and that it better amplify Ukrainian messaging in the global information domain. I met President Zelensky, an even larger presence than social media suggests
17/ The coming months are an opportunity for Australia and others to demonstrate true commitment to Ukraine and their victory over Russia. This is an even more compelling need if Russia does begin to mobilise. Russian parliament toughens punishment for crimes during military mobilisation
18/ The sacrifices of #Ukraine in the past 8 months have been to ensure that ‘government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish’ from their small patch of this earth. It’s why they fight. And why the west must support them more. End The sacrifices ofin the past 8 months have been to ensure that ‘government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish’ from their small patch of this earth. It’s why they fight. And why the west must support them more. End
19/ Thank you to the following whose images appeared in this thread: @IAPonomarenko @DefenceU @RALee85 @UAWeapons @TDF_UA Thank you to the following whose images appeared in this thread:
• • •
x
https://t.co/hKofkoqzaO
The aggressors are helping Ukrainians with projectiles inventory to hit at all those aggressors still in Ukraine? — Lee Kee Pheow (@sporelee) September 20, 2022
x WATCH NOW via MEMRI TV
Russian Oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin Recruits Russian Prison Inmates To Fight In Ukraine For PMC Wagner: If You Serve For Six Months, You Will Be Pardoned... via @memrireports #MEMRI
https://t.co/4s0onOjLZC — Steve Stalinsky (@SteveStalinsky) September 20, 2022
x San Francisco: we spent a decade and $1.6B and we still need a few months to soft launch this line
Kyiv: apologies we’re being invaded by a dictator’s army so you may have to wait up to 7 minutes for a train
https://t.co/eZc0GkAWot — Kane 謝凱堯 (@kane) September 20, 2022
x Russian-installed leaders in occupied areas of four Ukrainian regions set out plans for referendums on joining Russia, a move Ukraine dismissed as a stunt by Moscow to try to reclaim the initiative after crushing losses on the battlefield
https://t.co/zwkBNhwenO pic.twitter.com/0Xi9lMe8kg — Reuters (@Reuters) September 20, 2022
x If Russia does stage these sham “referenda”, the United States and the international community will never recognize Russia’s claims to any purportedly-annexed parts of Ukraine. We continue to stand with the people of Ukraine. — Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) September 20, 2022
After weeks of battlefield setbacks in Ukraine, Moscow appears to have buckled under pressure and plowed ahead with a new phase in the war: urgent “referendums” to annex stolen Ukrainian land and harsh prison terms for defiant troops.
The double whammy began with the announcement early Tuesday that Russia’s State Duma passed legislation introducing stricter punishments for any troops who “voluntarily” surrender on the frontline or refuse to follow orders.
Deserters would get up to 15 years behind bars, while those who surrender face a 10-year sentence. Those who refuse to follow the orders of their commanders face three years.
The legislation, which for the first time also adds the concepts of “mobilization, martial law and wartime” to the Russian Criminal Code, has widely been seen as the first step to launching full-scale mobilization.
After unanimous approval by the State Duma, the legislation will be sent to the Federation Council on Wednesday, according to state media. With the Federation Council also expected to get on board, the new prison terms will come into force as soon as Putin signs the bill–which could happen as soon as Wednesday.
Bizarrely, the legislation was already marked as having been approved at all stages in the government portal as of Wednesday afternoon.
www.thedailybeast.com/...
x Sham ‘referendums’ will not change anything. Neither will any hybrid ‘mobilization’. Russia has been and remains an aggressor illegally occupying parts of Ukrainian land. Ukraine has every right to liberate its territories and will keep liberating them whatever Russia has to say. — Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) September 20, 2022
Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of the latter of which is not under Russian control) suggests that Ukraine’s ongoing northern counter-offensive is panicking proxy forces and some Kremlin decision-makers. The legislatures of Russia’s proxies in occupied Ukraine, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR), each called on their leadership to “immediately” hold a referendum on recognizing the DNR and LNR as Russian subjects. [1] Russian propagandist and RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan spoke glowingly of the call, referring to it as the “Crimean scenario.” She wrote that by recognizing occupied Ukrainian land as Russian territory, Russia could more easily threaten NATO with retaliatory strikes for Ukrainian counterattacks, “untying Russia’s hands in all respects.” [2]
This approach is incoherent. Russian forces do not control all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Annexing the claimed territories of the DNR and LNR would, therefore, have Russia annex oblasts that would be by Kremlin definition partially ”occupied” by legitimate Ukrainian authorities and advancing Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian strikes into Russian-annexed Crimea clearly demonstrate that Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s illegally annexed territory do not automatically trigger Russian retaliation against NATO, as Simonyan would have her readers believe. Partial annexation at this stage would also place the Kremlin in the strange position of demanding that Ukrainian forces unoccupy “Russian” territory, and the humiliating position of being unable to enforce that demand. It remains very unclear that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be willing to place himself in such a bind for the dubious benefit of making it easier to threaten NATO or Ukraine with escalation he remains highly unlikely to conduct at this stage.
www.understandingwar.org/...
x Absolutely the core of their messed-up plan. This is the land Russia has been planning to annex for a decade, ever since UKR began leaning toward the West. They can only let Kyiv go if they can hold Sevastapol. — Sean Phillips (@Jacksons_Dad) September 20, 2022
Sept 20 (Reuters) - Russia's Black Sea fleet has relocated some of its submarines from port of Sevastopol in Crimea to Novorossiysk in Krasnodor Krai in southern Russia, the British military said on Tuesday.
On 23 February 2014, a pro-Russian rally took place in Sevastopol’s Nakhimov Square declaring allegiance to Russia and protesting against the new government in Kyiv following the overthrow of the president, Viktor Yanukovych.[33] On 27 February, pro-Russian militia, including Russian troops, seized control of government buildings in Crimea, and by 28 February, controlled other strategic locations such as the military airport in Sevastopol.[34][35]
On 16 March 2014, an internationally unrecognized referendum was held in Sevastopol with official results claiming a 89.51% turnout and 95.6% of voters choosing to join Russia. Almost all countries of the United Nations General Assembly, as well as Ukraine consider the referendum illegal and illegitimate.[36][37]
On 18 March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, incorporating the Republic of Crimea and federal city of Sevastopol as federal subjects of Russia.[38][39] However, the annexation remains internationally unrecognized, with most countries recognizing Sevastopol as a city with special status within Ukraine.[40]
en.wikipedia.org/...
x Judging by old historical maps, it seems that Ukraine has a legit claim on Belgorod 👀 pic.twitter.com/ZYeQtEcgdh — Alejandro M. Mendoza🇺🇦 Слава Україні! (@Alejo22_88MM) September 20, 2022
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/20/2124134/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-210-Crimea-is-always-in-play-regardless-of-sham-referenda
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