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Pandemic Observations -- September 16, US States & Canadian Provinces: [1]

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Date: 2022-09-17

End of the Road in Sight?

Despite a significant jump up in Canada’s Covid-19 death toll this week, and the stubborn refusal of US deaths to drop below the 400 per day average thus far, this phase of the pandemic clearly seems to be winding down. New infections in Canada appear to be back to their pre-Omicron level, and new infections in the US are actually down to their pre-Delta level -- even if they are still more than twice the rate reached during late March and early April nadir at the end of Omicron’s initial wave.

As long as new infections continue their now 8-week trend toward ever lower numbers, the weekly death toll will of necessity have to follow suit, and we may be seeing the start of that hoped for trend in hospitalizations, which are now beginning to pick up downward momentum. The one discordant note here is that Canada (along with Florida and a couple of other US states) is experiencing a significantly higher Case Fatality Rate (CFR) during this second Omicron phase compared with the initial Omicron tsunami last winter— a pattern not seen in most of the rest of the world, and something worth further study.

US States & canadian Provinces: September 10-16 New deaths 7-Day D/1M 7-Day Deaths Weekly Change 14.Day Change Change fr max Canada USA NN WV QC MI ME KY KS NM FL NS GA MB SD ND AK WI AL LA AZ PR PA VA MS WA AR CT ID NY MD NH MN OH IN IA NL MA IL HI TN WY BC MO AB DE SK ON NB OR NJ CO OK TX NC UT SC MT CA NE NV RI DC VT US.Hos 10.4 8.7 38.9 23.5 21.5 19.6 19.3 17.4 15.4 15.3 15.0 14.5 14.2 13.9 13.6 13.1 12.3 12.0 11.6 11.6 11.3 11.2 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.5 9.5 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.2 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 393 2,886 7 42 182 196 26 78 45 32 322 14 150 19 12 10 9 70 57 54 82 38 139 92 32 77 30 35 17 185 54 12 49 99 56 26 4 52 91 10 48 4 33 40 27 6 7 81 4 21 44 28 19 139 49 12 17 3 99 2 0 0 0 0 3,456 50% 0% 133% 50% 189% 136% 0% 18% 463% 129% -26% 75% 46% 533% 33% 67% 13% 141% -14% 42% 71% -7% 21% -26% 23% 38% 25% 40% 143% 40% 13% 50% 29% 15% -15% -7% 0% -29% 21% -9% -4% 33% -13% -51% -36% -40% 0% -15% -33% -52% 5% 47% -10% -1% 81% 50% -53% -57% -67% -89% -100% -100% 0% -100% -10% 13% -19% 233% 17% 25% 6% 300% -6% -13% -62% -25% 47% -16% 0% 50% -16% 6% 19% 137% -15% -2% -10% 5% 1% 57% -9% -31% -33% -14% 7% 11% 33% 12% 3% -15% -7% 0% 3% -13% -16% -43% -30% -34% -19% 10% -48% 0% 12% 0% -24% -34% -31% -60% -26% 31% -29% 47% -17% -31% -20% -35% 50% -100% -40% -8% -67% -88% -90% -80% -74% -80% -80% -83% -88% -87% -88% -48% -84% -82% -93% -93% -90% -88% -95% -88% -93% -79% -91% -93% -92% -74% -90% -95% -91% -97% -88% -86% -89% -94% -92% -94% -78% -95% -93% -87% -95% -95% -74% -94% -83% -95% -84% -81% -85% -90% -98% -94% -97% -94% -94% -91% -97% -98% -97% -99% -100% -100% -100% -100% -87% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62

D/1M = New Covid-19 deaths per 1 million population over prior 7 days

C/1M = New Covid-19 cases per 1 million population over prior 7 days

Weekly Change = Net change from previous week's stats

14-Day Change = Net Change from previous 14-day period

Change fr Max = Net change from week of peak deaths or new cases

Bold = States/Provs experiencing significant upward movement in cases and/or deaths

US.Hosp = Serious/Critical cases

NN = Navajo Nation (population estimate 180,000)

USA data derived from worldometer, Canadian data from Canada Covid-19 Interactive Data

US States & canadian Provinces: September 10-16 New Cases 7-Day C/1m 7-day Cases Weekly change 14.Day change Change fr Max Canada USA ND PR WV NN KY NC MI CT SC OH OK IA NJ NY AR MO AL WI KS DE IL PA VA SD TX AK MA ME MT MS LA TN MD NS MN FL NH CO WA HI NE ID GA IN VT AZ UT NM WY DC NB OR QC ON SK CA MB AB NL BC NV RI 489 1,251 2,594 2,582 2,569 2,267 2,051 2,020 1,838 1,795 1,768 1,758 1,727 1,724 1,638 1,590 1,577 1,520 1,498 1,483 1,429 1,416 1,388 1,367 1,359 1,326 1,315 1,312 1,306 1,271 1,229 1,216 1,208 1,156 1,143 1,128 1,125 1,064 1,053 1,048 950 948 916 914 912 895 869 841 839 812 788 747 744 615 588 504 425 300 251 246 224 114 0 0 18,440 413,997 1,977 8,746 4,603 408 9,163 21,189 18,375 6,398 9,106 20,552 6,833 5,439 14,547 30,930 4,760 9,327 7,345 8,635 4,164 1,379 17,584 17,506 11,600 1,173 38,134 960 9,004 1,709 1,314 3,619 5,618 7,894 6,912 1,091 6,346 22,854 1,432 6,034 7,234 1,343 1,772 1,634 9,683 6,026 542 6,119 2,689 1,702 456 527 575 2,595 4,970 7,296 497 11,848 342 1,072 117 574 0 0 0% -15% 253% -9% -19% -88% -11% 18% 16% 46% -32% -5% -30% -4% 15% 9% -14% -8% -23% 10% -8% 15% -12% 4% -12% 22% -11% 9% 23% 42% 14% -48% -25% -45% 10% 1% -1% -21% 50% 28% 14% 11% -16% 73% -24% -31% 25% 67% 13% -3% -1% 3% -2% -30% -1% -16% -1% -74% -28% -1% -46% -7% -100% -100% -16% -23% 4% -33% -14% -30% -32% -19% -11% 25% -5% -13% -17% -15% -9% -2% -23% -1% -43% -22% -19% -13% -26% -10% -28% -26% -30% -36% -7% -9% -21% -4% -46% -54% -13% -20% -29% -37% 1% -25% -18% -36% -32% -34% -46% -43% 8% -43% -17% -48% -32% -22% -23% -29% -20% -17% 7% -58% -26% -32% -51% -14% -64% -21% -94% -94% -87% -87% -86% -93% -89% -89% -87% -90% -92% -90% -92% -88% -93% -94% -92% -90% -94% -94% -93% -94% -92% -91% -91% -91% -92% -96% -94% -89% -92% -92% -95% -93% -92% -85% -93% -95% -93% -95% -94% -96% -94% -92% -93% -94% -96% -96% -96% -96% -95% -96% -89% -95% -95% -93% -94% -99% -98% -97% -97% -97% -100% -100% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62

Following are the Power Rankings for the top 25 States/Provinces driving the pandemic in the US & Canada in terms of total new cases and new deaths during the past week:

Top 25 States/Provs: September 10-16 New Deaths 7-Day Deaths 14.Day Inc %Tot <<>> New Cases 7-Day Cases 14.Day Inc %Tot FL MI NY QC GA PA TX OH CA VA IL AZ ON KY WA WI AL IN LA MD MA MN NC TN KS 322 196 185 182 150 139 139 99 99 92 91 82 81 78 77 70 57 56 54 54 52 49 49 48 45 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 9.8% 6.0% 5.6% 5.6% 4.6% 4.2% 4.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TX NY FL NC OH MI IL PA NJ CA VA GA MO KY SC MA PR WI TN AL ON WA MD OK CT 38,134 30,930 22,854 21,189 20,552 18,375 17,584 17,506 14,547 11,848 11,600 9,683 9,327 9,163 9,106 9,004 8,746 8,635 7,894 7,345 7,296 7,234 6,912 6,833 6,398 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 1.2% 0.8% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 0.8% 2.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 8.8% 7.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5%

14-Day Inc = Net increase of current 14-day numbers over prior cumulative totals

%Tot = Share of US & Canadian Totals

[END]
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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/17/2123597/-Pandemic-Observations-September-16-US-States-Canadian-Provinces

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