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Ukraine Invasion Day 204: Stochastic Black Swans attack bridge supports, maybe. [1]
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Date: 2022-09-14
There remains a continuing worry about energy infrastructure and spinning disinformation about battlefield success including how Ukraine will need a force of 300k troops to drive the Russians out.
The Russian federation could have some “Blue State” problems with its republics as a Russian state media war correspondent accidentally reveals the scale of their losses in Ukraine. GOP congress-critters who have allied themselves with Putin might now see themselves holding a losing hand.
Several members of the Russian State Duma expressed concern about the dire situation on the frontlines in Ukraine during the Duma’s first plenary meeting of its autumn session on September 13. Leader of the Russian Communist Party Gennady Zyuganov stated that Russia needs to announce full mobilization because the Russian “special military operation” is a war.[7] Zyuganov said that one can end a “special military operation” at any time, but that a war can end only in victory or defeat, and “we have no right to lose” this war. Leader of the “Fair Russia—For Truth” Party Sergey Mironov called for social “mobilization,” in which regular Russians would pay attention more to the war in Ukraine, rather than for full military mobilization. Leader of the Russian Liberal Democratic Party Leonid Slutsky also noted that Russia will continue to fight in the geopolitical “scrum” with the West. All three MPs had publicly advocated for Putin to recognize the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) before the February invasion and were instrumental in setting information conditions for the invasion itself.[8] The MPs also discussed a December date for the next hearing on a bill that will simplify the delivery of the semiannual conscription notices.[9] The bill, which is likely to pass, will allow Russian military recruitment centers to send out conscription notices via mail instead of presenting them in person and will oblige men who have not received a notice in the mail to show up at the local recruitment center anyway.[10]
Kremlin sources are now working to clear Putin of any responsibility for the defeat, instead blaming the loss of almost all of occupied Kharkiv Oblast on underinformed military advisors within Putin’s circle. [4] One member of the Kremlin’s Council for Interethnic Relations, Bogdan Bezpalko, even stated that military officials who had failed to see the concentration of Ukrainian troops and equipment and disregarded Telegram channels that warned of the imminent Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkiv Oblast should have their heads ”lying on Putin’s desk.”[5] ISW has previously reported that the Kremlin delayed Putin‘s meeting with Russian defense officials immediately after the withdrawal of troops from around Kharkiv, increasing the appearance of a rift between the Kremlin and the Russian MoD.[6] The Kremlin’s admission of defeat in Kharkiv shows that Putin is willing and able to recognize and even accept a Russian defeat at least in some circumstances and focus on deflecting blame from himself.
The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Kremlin officials and state media propagandists are extensively discussing the reasons for the Russian defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, a marked change from their previous pattern of reporting on exaggerated or fabricated Russian successes with limited detail.[1] The Kremlin never admitted that Russia was defeated around Kyiv or, later, at Snake Island, framing the retreat from Kyiv as a decision to prioritize the “liberation” of Donbas and the withdrawal from Snake Island as a “gesture of goodwill.”[2] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) originally offered a similar explanation for the Russian failure in Kharkiv, claiming that Russian forces were withdrawing troops from Kharkiv Oblast to regroup, but this false narrative faced quick and loud criticism online.[3] The Kremlin’s acknowledgment of the defeat is part of an effort to mitigate and deflect criticism for such a devastating failure away from Russian President Vladimir Putin and onto the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the uniformed military command.
Exclusive: Vladimir Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead
https://t.co/d7mw7NMGDN
According to Reuters, the agreement reached by Dmitry Kozak, the Kremlin's deputy chief of staff, didn't satisfy Putin's ambition to annex swathes of Ukrainian territory, so it was dropped. The Kremlin spokesman denied the report, saying it has nothing to do with reality.
7 days of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of the Kharkiv region in 15 seconds. The map shows the progress of the Ukrainian army based on official sources. #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/LjmNU1pxQ0
A Russian helicopter struck a pillar of the bridge over Dnipro river, which Nazis were trying to build during WWII. They passed off this as an attack on barges with Ukrainian troops. Video below⬇️ pic.twitter.com/0RKcv8KfIl
GeoConfirmed. "Another fake news story: Russians claim they have footage of the attack on the barge with Ukrainian Special Forces, but in fact they attacked a bridge support." note: i can't believe i am writing this. Support: 47.516334, 34.381451 GeoLocated by @ua_industrial pic.twitter.com/3XdX87syYR
In recent days, the Ukrainian Forces were able to recapture large parts of their territory. In his newest Video, Colonel Markus Reisner calls it the third distinctive phase of this war. Reisner analyses the offensives in Cherson and Charkiv. #Bundesheer
https://t.co/DmnYB5wgRx
Recent developments in Kharkiv have shown the world that the Ukrainians are serious about winning the war, writes Mark Temnycky.
https://t.co/WNx69b4jsI
"The past life of the Russian Federation is crumbling": Zahorodnyuk "Now, Russian soldiers’ main exercise is to avoid becoming victims of yet another failure of their army... Defeat in Kharkiv Oblast will haunt all commanders of the Russian army"
https://t.co/Sdl5VxlGeg #Ukraine
"The Russians made sure everyone could hear the screams" - accounts of brutality and the killing of civilians emerge in areas in Kharkiv province newly liberated by #Ukraine . Our report from the city of Balakliya with @goktay @marianaMatveic1 @Wburema pic.twitter.com/wPpYyLSWJZ
There are fallen poles all along the road from Kharkiv to Izium. I couldn't figure out what happened. It couldn't have been a blast wave. It turned out Russians knocked down those poles with tanks to steal batteries and solar panels. Murderers and looters. pic.twitter.com/lHMscLIGei
x I asked him for an update. Will keep you informed. — Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) September 10, 2022
x The new stage is what now, stage 5? — Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) September 10, 2022
x Reported losses of Armed Forces of Ukraine by #Russian MOD. How to stop laughing pic.twitter.com/2iYhkB4q5Q — Svitlana Khytrenko 🇺🇦🌻 (@s_khytrenko) September 14, 2022
x In Belgorod, locals complain about the smell from train loads of refrigerated wagons from Ukraine, likely full of dead Russian soldiers. pic.twitter.com/K0GcxahTq3 — Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) September 14, 2022
In contrast to the NATO planning system, where there are clear indicators of combat capability and combat readiness of units, in the Russian army, the doctrine does not even have the very concept of comprehensive capabilities. In fact, the Russian language does not have the word "capability."
There is no effective control system and no system for determining the quality of events and the combat potential. As a result, thousands of supposedly existing tanks turned out to be incapacitated, and hundreds of missiles fell without reaching their targets.
Western analysts could not calculate this difference between quantity and quality and, therefore, expected much more from the Russian Armed Forces at the beginning of the war.
Russian forces are trying to make up for their losses within the first six months (of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine) by recruiting new troops, unprepared for actual combat. But for officers, it is important to fulfill the quantitative part and only formally implement the task of forming additional units and restoring the old ones.
Any officer who served in the Soviet or the old-style Ukrainian army knows these old traditions destroy efficiency.
According to these traditions, what is required is not victory but the fulfillment of a narrowly set task. Before receiving the rank of general, an officer of the Soviet-style army builds a career, understanding that his opinion is of no interest to anyone – the only important thing is the conscientious execution of orders, no matter how absurd they might be. And in every failure, there must be a designated guilty person.
In contrast to the NATO planning system, where there are clear indicators of combat capability and combat readiness of units, in the Russian army, the doctrine does not even have the very concept of comprehensive capabilities. In fact, the Russian language does not have the word "capability."
There is no effective control system and no system for determining the quality of events and the combat potential. As a result, thousands of supposedly existing tanks turned out to be incapacitated, and hundreds of missiles fell without reaching their targets.
Western analysts could not calculate this difference between quantity and quality and, therefore, expected much more from the Russian Armed Forces at the beginning of the war.
kyivindependent.com/...
x Meanwhile in Russian TV's alternative universe, Araik Stepanyan claims America wants to "colonise Ukraine like Australia" and then hand out positions of authority such as governorships to mercenaries who fought in the war against Russia pic.twitter.com/UnnrCU0H0w — Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) September 14, 2022
x Whether in the regular formations or “Territorial” followers, Ukraine’s only usefully defined “interior line” is from the Kiev-Chernigov area
Any shifting of forces along the south and east is very limited and vulnerable pic.twitter.com/VFZ8JMakYe — Matt Davies (@MNormanDavies) September 14, 2022
Allies across Europe have also pulled from their own stocks in the massive international emergency aid operation, and the $1 billion in U.S. financing to restock and modernize their militaries will be key in showing American commitment to the alliance. That will ease some fears, particularly in the Baltic NATO countries, that they have become more vulnerable after giving up so much weaponry.
The administration did not provide details of what specific capabilities the money will go toward, but it’s likely officials are looking to bolster air defenses in NATO’s eastern region. Poland is already asking for additional Patriot missile defense batteries from the U.S., and potential new NATO member Finland is also looking to boost its defense capabilities. The money will also likely go toward capabilities that have proved effective in Ukraine’s current fight, such as drones and missiles, as well as replacing the Soviet-era weapons European nations have sent to Ukraine, said Jim Townsend, a senior fellow with the Center for a New American Security. “There is mounting concern in the interagency, State and Defense, that more has got to be done quickly to assist the allies who are on the frontlines and have these needs and don’t have the budget to be able to buy everything,” Townsend said. The $1 billion in financing will allow countries to use American grants to buy military equipment from U.S. defense companies, with Washington’s support and guidance. The gesture recognizes a growing need in many Eastern European countries that are either eager to get rid of their older Russian equipment or have given most of it away to Ukraine since February. www.politico.com/...
x ⚡️ Over the past week, Germany handed over 4 more Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled artillery installations to Ukraine, bringing their total number to 24, according to the German government.
Another 6 Gepard units are being prepared for shipment to Ukraine.
👉 @Flash_news_ua pic.twitter.com/CYzZslsNWO — FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) September 14, 2022
x I would trust these 5000 troops over any 10000 presently in the Russian Army
https://t.co/CWI5vg4H9b — Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) September 14, 2022
x ⚡️Russia is striking the energy infrastructure of Ukraine. If you do not count the attack on the thermal power plant on September 11, then Ukraine has already suffered losses of UAH 13.4 billion in the energy sector.
👉 Follow @Flash_news_ua pic.twitter.com/aWyQ7MIFje — FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) September 14, 2022
x UPDATE: Germany is looking at options including a straight equity increase that would result in the government taking a significant majority stake in Uniper, the utility said in a statement, confirming an earlier Bloomberg report 🇩🇪
➡️ No decisions have been made — Stephen Stapczynski (@SStapczynski) September 14, 2022
x Russia estimates that its financial sector has suffered hundreds of billions of dollars in “direct losses” from the sanctions imposed by the US and its allies over the invasion of Ukraine
https://t.co/zP0rJIdAko — Bloomberg Politics (@bpolitics) September 14, 2022
It is becoming increasingly clear that Ukraine is going to win this war and that the Kremlin faces a historic crisis of confidence. Indeed, I now believe it is a genuine possibility that Vladimir Putin’s exposed weaknesses are so severe that we might be witnessing the beginning of the end – not only of his regime, but of the Russian Federation itself.
This vast empire encompassing more than 120 ethnic groups is on an unsustainable footing, and like that famous Hemingway quote, its collapse may be gradual at first but could quickly become a sudden, violent and uncontrollable event. If we fail to prepare for this possibility in the way that we failed to prepare for the collapse of the Soviet Union, it could introduce immense instability to our geopolitics.
I see at least three factors that could lead to the Federation’s collapse. The first is the breakdown of domestic confidence in the Russian Army, which has traditionally been at the core of the Kremlin’s legitimacy. Its humiliation in Ukraine is now almost complete, with the proud Black Sea Fleet still hiding behind Crimea, too frightened to take action against a country that doesn’t even have a navy.
[...]
Second, the damage suffered by the Russian economy has been too devastating to sustain a population of 144 million. The loss of energy markets, which compensated for the country’s lack of modern industries, cannot be reversed. European governments will not rely again on Nord Stream 1, having witnessed how easily it can be turned off, and are already making long-term investments in domestic energy supply.
[...]
This brings us to the third factor, which is the sparse nature of Russia’s population. For despite possessing 70 times the landmass of the United Kingdom, the Federation has just twice the population. These numbers make civic solidarity difficult to achieve in the best of times, but now, with the metropole in a weak position, any sense of national identity could rapidly deteriorate.
Western sanctions will force Moscow’s elites to make difficult economic trade-offs. They will inevitably bail-out the middle classes in the capital, who pose a more immediate threat to officials, to the detriment of minority populations in the constituent nations.
Seen this way, it is shocking how little discussion there has been about the potential end of the Russian Federation. We ought to be asking difficult questions now lest they be sprung on us out of nowhere.
www.telegraph.co.uk/...
x You are making my case as to why it’s a black swan event. It requires forethought, analysis, war gaming and planning because we know it is likely coming. — Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) September 13, 2022
x "The possibility of a succession crisis in a nuclear power––and the added possibility that a figure more hawkish than Putin could prevail in such a crisis––is the stuff of nightmares," @conor64 writes.
https://t.co/yyNPKpw4Yu — The Atlantic (@TheAtlantic) September 14, 2022
Wars against seemingly beaten enemies can still get ugly quickly, as America learned when it sought to liberate the entire Korean Peninsula in late 1950 but found itself in a larger, more dangerous fight with China instead. No doubt the Biden administration is mulling carefully which Ukrainian war aims are desirable and which are truly indispensable.
A Ukraine that is politically independent, economically viable and militarily defensible is certainly in the latter category. So is an outcome that leaves Putin so bloodied and bereft of new gains that no reasonable observer can think that aggression has paid.
All this involves pushing Russia back to the lines of Feb. 24, 2022, if not further. But it may not, in Biden’s view, require reclaiming Crimea or putting Putin and his henchmen on trial.
A debate over ending the war isn’t imminent — it will take further offensives to evict Russia from the land it has occupied since February. Zelenskiy may eventually prove willing to trade away certain demands to secure others. Or maybe there will be a Russian military collapse that Putin meekly accepts.
But barring that best-of-all-worlds outcome, the coming months may see some difficult conversations between the US and Ukraine over how much Kyiv should seek in a peace deal with Moscow — and some quiet consideration in Washington of whether to try to restrain Zelenskiy if he pushes for more than Biden thinks wise. www.washingtonpost.com/...
x Ukraine May Become More Successful Than Biden Wants
https://t.co/aj4DlyxIcO — Post Business (@washpostbiz) September 14, 2022
On Aug. 29 Tucker Carlson of Fox News attacked President Biden’s policy on Ukraine, asserting among other things: “By any actual reality-based measure, Vladimir Putin is not losing the war in Ukraine. He is winning the war in Ukraine.” Carlson went on, by the way, to assert that Biden is supporting Ukraine only because he wants to destroy the West. Carlson’s timing was impeccable. Just a few days later, a large section of the Russian front near Kharkiv was overrun by a Ukrainian attack. It’s important to note that Putin’s forces weren’t just pushed back; they appear to have been routed. As the independent Institute for the Study of War reported, the Russians were driven into a “panicked and disorderly retreat,” leaving behind “large amounts of equipment and supplies that Ukrainian forces can use.” The Russian collapse seemed to validate analyses by defense experts who have been saying for months that Western weapons have been shifting the military balance in Ukraine’s favor, that Putin’s army is desperately short on quality manpower and that it has been degraded by attrition and missile attacks on its rear areas. These analyses suggested that Russian forces might eventually reach a breaking point, although few expected that point to come so soon and so dramatically.
To be fair to Carlson and other right-wing cheerleaders for Putin, they aren’t the only people clinging to delusions of Russian success. There’s a whole school of self-styled “realists” who considered Ukrainian resistance to Russia futile and who, despite the failure of Putin’s initial assault, have spent the past six months calling on Ukraine to make big concessions to supposedly superior Russian power.
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