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Ukraine Invasion Day 203: still not near a turning point, black swans may yet appear [1]

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Date: 2022-09-13

Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which began on September 6, took the Kremlin by surprise, both in terms of speed and the dynamism of advances with large pockets in Kharkiv oblast being reclaimed. According to the British defence ministry, in recent days, Ukrainian forces have captured territory at least twice the size of London. Ukrainian fighters were able to take advantage of a weaker presence of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, following the redeployment of Russian fighters to Donetsk and the southern axis, where a Ukrainian offensive in Kherson presented a threat.

Sadly, it’s still early in an attrition-focused war where the organizational limits on the Russian side have become more obvious, but they may yet prevail because of the size of their materiel resources. By comparison, Ukraine continues to fight to regain their borders, as a few Putin proxies engaged in defeatist hand-wringing.

Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive is continuing to have significant impacts on Russian morale and military capabilities in southern Ukraine. Satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15km northwest of Kherson City, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed from previous forward positions, consistent with rumors that Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) troops have abandoned Kyselivka and moved back towards the Dnipro River. [1] Kyselivka is an operationally significant location for Russian forces around Kherson City because it is the last major settlement along both the E58 highway and a railway line between current Ukrainian positions and Chornobaivka, the outermost part of Kherson City. The apparent withdrawal of Russian troops from this position may compromise the Russians’ ability to defend the northwestern outskirts of Kherson City and suggests that Russian troops in this area perceive an imminent threat to their positions. Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, Natalya Humenyuk, stated on September 12 that Russian forces located along the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast are attempting to negotiate for surrender under the auspices of international law. [2] Ukrainian operations in Kharkiv Oblast are unlikely to have had such a dramatic psychological effect on Russian troops this far south, and both the withdrawal of troops from forward positions in Kyselivka and reports of surrender negotiations are indicators that Ukrainian counteroffensives in the south are progressing in a significant way, even if visibility on this axis is limited by the shift in focus to Kharkiv. The success of recent Ukrainian counteroffensive operations may be impacting the will or ability of the Russian military command to use newly formed volunteer units in Ukraine in a timely fashion. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian military command has suspended sending new, already-formed units to Ukraine due to recent Russian losses and widespread distrust of the Russian military command, factors which have caused a large number of volunteers to categorically refuse to participate in combat. [3] This assessment is still unconfirmed, but low morale due to Ukrainian counteroffensive success may prove devastating to the Kremlin’s already-poor ability to generate meaningful combat capability. The deployment of these newly formed units to reinforce defensive lines against Ukrainian counteroffensives would be an operationally-sound decision on the part of Russian military leadership; and the delay or potential suspension of these deployments will afford Ukrainian troops time to consolidate and then resume the offensive, should they choose to do so, without having to face newly arrived and fresh (albeit undertrained and understrength) units. www.understandingwar.org/... Key Takeaways Ukrainian forces are continuing to make impactful gains in Kherson Oblast and are steadily degrading the morale and combat capabilities of Russian forces in this area.

The Russian military command may be suspending the deployment of newly formed units to Ukraine due to recent Russian losses and overall degraded morale.

Russian forces are failing to reinforce the new frontline following Ukrainian gains in eastern Kharkiv Oblast and are actively fleeing the area or redeploying to other axes.

Ukrainian forces continued targeting Russian military assets and positions in Kherson Oblast, likely steadily degrading them.

The Ukrainian recapture of Izyum has likely degraded Russian forces’ ability to conduct artillery strikes along the Izyum-Slovyansk highway.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced the restoration of the second reserve power transmission line to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

Ukraine’s sweeping counteroffensive is damaging Russian administrative capabilities and driving Russian departures from occupied parts of Ukraine far behind the line of contact. www.understandingwar.org/… Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kharkiv could mark a turning point in the war , , while Moscow described its pullback as a decision to “regroup.” The lightning advance in the Kharkiv region could raise pressure on Moscow to call up more forces. “The question will be how the Russians will react, but their weaknesses have been exposed and they don’t have great manpower reserves or equipment reserves,” a U.S. official told The Washington Post. Western officials said , while Moscow described its pullback as a decision to “regroup.” The lightning advance incould raise pressure on Moscow to call up more forces. “The question will be how the Russians will react, but their weaknesses have been exposed and they don’t have great manpower reserves or equipment reserves,” a U.S. official told The Washington Post.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke over the phone for 90 minutes on Tuesday. During the call, Scholz said “any further Russian annexation steps would not go unanswered” and would not be recognized, according to a by German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit. After the call, Scholz wrote in a tweet that Russia must withdraw its troops and recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity — “otherwise, a diplomatic solution is inconceivable.” During the call, Scholz said “any further Russian annexation steps would not go unanswered” and would not be recognized, according to a statement by German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit. After the call, Scholz wrote in a tweet that Russia must withdraw its troops and recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity — “otherwise, a diplomatic solution is inconceivable.”

Russia said its war in Ukraine will continue “until the goals that have been set are achieved,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday. Russia’s ambitions have shifted during the war: After failing to capture the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, Russian forces turned their fire to the eastern Donbas region. Peskov on Tuesday ruled out plans for a general mobilization to reinforce troops in Ukraine. “At the moment, no, it’s out of the question,” he told reporters. “until the goals that have been set are achieved,” Kremlin spokesmansaid Monday. Russia’sduring the war: After failing to capture the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, Russian forces turned their fire to the eastern Donbas region. Peskov on Tuesday ruled out plans for a general mobilization to reinforce troops in Ukraine. “At the moment, no, it’s out of the question,” he told reporters.

in a rare gesture of symbolic dissent. Analysts said they would probably face serious consequences for the protest. So far, the Nearly 50 Russian municipal deputies have called for Putin’s resignationin a rare gesture of symbolic dissent. Analysts said they would probably face serious consequences for the protest. So far, the original petitioners , among them lawmakers and politicians, have faced fines of up to 50,000 rubles ($850). Fighting is still raging in Kharkiv as Ukrainian forces advance, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar told Reuters on Tuesday. “It is still early to say full control has been established over Kharkiv region,” she added. See maps of Ukraine’s gains here. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyaron Tuesday. “It is still early to say full control has been established over Kharkiv region,” she added.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his forces recaptured more than 2,300 square miles in the country’s south and east this month. Ukraine’s military said Monday it took 20 more towns and villages in 24 hours. The claims could not be independently verified. Photos of Ukrainian flags raised in Bohorodychne and , on the banks of the Donets River, circulated widely on social media. in the country’s south and east this month.Ukraine’s military said Monday it took 20 more towns and villages in 24 hours. The claims could not be independently verified. Photos of Ukrainian flags raised in Bohorodychne and Sviatohirsk , on the banks of the Donets River, circulated widely on social media.

Pentagon press secretary Patrick Ryder declined Tuesday to say whether the United States had helped Ukraine plan the Kharkiv counteroffensive. But he also emphasized the ongoing military cooperation between Washington and Kyiv. “We do engage with the Ukrainians at a variety of levels on the military side," he said at a briefing with reporters. “We do provide time-sensitive information to enable them to conduct their operations and defend their homeland.”

Oleksandr Shapoval, a renowned dancer at Ukraine’s National Opera ballet, was killed in combat in eastern Ukraine. Shapoval went to battle and served as a grenade launcher, said Anton Gerashchenko, a Ukrainian official. www.washingtonpost.com/...​​​​​​​ x Losses in Ukraine Prompt Something New on Russian TV: Debate

Because I'm a subscriber, you can read it through this gift link without a subscription. https://t.co/1QCh4Wi55B — Fat Cat 🌐 (@FATCAed) September 13, 2022 As Russia suffered its most humiliating defeat since the initial stage of the war in Ukraine, cracks emerged in the official narrative as lawmakers and pundits on state television cast doubt on Moscow’s prospects. While some urged the Kremlin to start peace negotiations, others demanded that its forces double down. The divergence of views, even on tightly controlled state television networks, highlighted how Moscow’s narrative has quickly shifted from a conviction that it was only a matter of time before Russia subjugated Ukraine to a sense of alarm over the rapid progress of Kyiv’s forces. And it was a contrast from the muted response after Russia’s drive to take Kyiv failed in the spring. On Friday, as the Russian front line in northeastern Ukraine collapsed, Boris Nadezhdin, a Russian municipal lawmaker, told viewers of a political talk show on NTV, a state-owned television channel, what had once been unspeakable: Moscow cannot, under current conditions, win this war. “We are now at the point when we have to understand that it’s absolutely impossible to defeat Ukraine using those resources and colonial war methods with which Russia is trying to fight,” said Mr. Nadezhdin, who serves as a municipal deputy in a town near Moscow. “The Russian army is fighting against a strong army that is fully supported by the most powerful countries in the economic and technological sense.” Mr. Nadezhdin suggested that negotiations for peace should begin — a suggestion vehemently refuted by others in the studio, who argued that Russia cannot give up its existential fight against NATO. www.nytimes.com/... x Watch Putin loyalist on Russian state TV concede that Russia should acknowledge its recent defeats in Ukraine. He also proposed a radical solution of "the Ukrainian question": recognizing that Ukrainian people really do exist. More in my latest article: ⤵️https://t.co/Io3SKofbsV pic.twitter.com/n3VPBLVoyu — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) September 13, 2022 x Looks like Ukraine kicked some butt.



Time lapse of Ukraine counter attack in Kharkiv pic.twitter.com/HqTPZcZs8w — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) September 12, 2022

The officials were skeptical that Putin, who has resisted calling up additional forces, would resort to extreme tactics such as the use of chemical or tactical nuclear weapons. For all their shortcomings, the Russians still have the capability to regroup and hit back hard, some officials cautioned. But the recent gains have fueled a new sense of optimism that Ukrainian forces could recapture more territory in the coming weeks and potentially force the Russians out of the land that they have held since the war began in February. Ukrainian military and intelligence officials have long been confident of their eventual victory, often in the face of skepticism from U.S. and Western allies. “Certainly it’s a military setback. I don’t know if I could call it a major strategic loss at this point,” the U.S. official said, echoing others who said that it was too soon to say if the momentum had fully shifted in Kyiv’s favor and that heavy fighting was likely to continue. Russia holds large amounts of territory in the east and in southern Ukraine, including the strategically important cities of Mariupol and Kherson. Ukrainian breakthroughs there would be more significant than those of recent days, officials said. But fighting in those regions has taken a heavy toll on Ukrainian forces, who say they lack the artillery needed to dislodge better equipped and entrenched Russian forces. www.washingtonpost.com/... x Ukraine's advances justify the West's military strategy https://t.co/zrliA5TdJz — Le Monde in English (@LeMonde_EN) September 13, 2022 www.aljazeera.com/... Ukraine consolidated its control of the Kharkiv region on Tuesday, raising flags on towns and villages occupied by Russian troops for six months, and reclaiming areas seized by Moscow on the first day of Vladimir Putin’s invasion. The state border service in Kyiv said it had liberated the city of Vovchansk, a couple of kilometres from the international border. Russian soldiers left on Sunday, it added, after the stunning Ukrainian counter-offensive. In the space of a few days Ukraine has pushed the Russians out from more than 6,000 sq km of territory, including zones in the south of the country where a separate counter-offensive is ongoing to recapture the city of Kherson. [...] According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Russian army has retreated from the right-hand (north/west) bank of the Dnieper River, practically abandoning a position outside the southern city of Kherson. Demoralised troops from the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic have also pulled out of the village of Kyselivka, leaving behind just four vehicles, it said. Kyselivka is strategically important for Russian forces and 15km north west of Kherson. The Russian soldiers defending the city are effectively marooned after Ukraine clinically destroyed all four bridges across the wide Dnieper River. The north-western outskirts of Kherson were now vulnerable to a Ukrainian counterattack, the ISW wrote. Amid tentative signals from Moscow that peace talks might resume, Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said Kyiv would only take part in diplomatic negotiations on condition Russia leaves all Ukrainian territory. www.theguardian.com/... x This video published by Ukraine's State Border Guard Service shows the Ukrainian military in Vovchansk, a recently liberated city in Kharkiv Oblast less than 20 kilometers away from the Ukrainian-Russian border on Sept. 13. pic.twitter.com/h8yQAmtdOo — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 13, 2022

x This story is from a RU conscript soldier captured in Ukraine in the area south of Izium.

h/t @GringoKillah for the story

Video below. pic.twitter.com/4LNtTSLr2h — Def Mon (@DefMon3) September 13, 2022 x This is supposed to be the POWs group being captured. https://t.co/6YxngnNdSI — Def Mon (@DefMon3) September 13, 2022 Click here to see interactive map, updated daily: arcg.is/09O0OS www.understandingwar.org/... The stakes were huge. Ukraine needed to demonstrate that this was not going to become just another frozen conflict, and that it could retake territory, for the morale of its people and to shore up support of the West. Throughout August, at the behest of Ukrainians, U.S. officials stepped up feeds of intelligence about the position of Russian forces, highlighting weaknesses in the Russian lines. The intelligence also indicated that Moscow would struggle to quickly reinforce its troops in northeast Ukraine or move troops from the south, even if it detected Ukrainian preparations for the counteroffensive. “We saw the fact that the Russians actually relocated a lot of their best forces down to the south in preparation for the other counteroffensive that the Ukrainians kicked off,” Mr. Kahl said. “So we had reason to believe that because of the persistent morale challenges, and the pressure of the Ukrainians, that there might be pockets of the Russian military that are a little more brittle than they appear on paper.” Instead of one large offensive, the Ukrainian military proposed two. One, in Kherson, would most likely take days or weeks before any dramatic results because of the concentration of Russian troops. The other was planned for near Kharkiv. Together Britain, the United States and Ukraine conducted an assessment of the new plan, trying to war game it once more. This time officials from the three countries agreed it would work — and give Mr. Zelensky what he wanted: a big, clear victory. But the plan, according to an officer on the general staff in Kyiv, depended entirely on the size and pace of additional military aid from the United States. www.nytimes.com/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort- Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) The Ukrainian recapture of Izyum has likely degraded Russian forces’ ability to conduct artillery strikes along the Izyum-Slovyansk highway. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces did not conduct artillery strikes in the Slovyansk direction on September 12, likely referring to settlements northwest of Slovyansk on the E40 highway. [22] Russian forces continued routine fire on Slovyansk and the surrounding area to the east, southeast, and south. [23] Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on September 12. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults on various settlements around Bakhmut and Avdiivka. [24] The continued ground attacks in this area far from the counteroffensive frontlines are noteworthy because Central Military District Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin was given responsibility for the western grouping of forces that had been in Kharkiv Oblast following the loss of most of that oblast to Ukrainian forces. Lapin has shown no indication that he intends to alter his ongoing limited offensive campaign despite suddenly receiving responsibility for a collapsing front. He appears instead determined to continue attacks that have no meaningful chance of securing operationally significant, let alone decisive, gains. Russian forces continued routine fire along the line of contact in Donetsk Oblast. [25] Russian sources did not conduct any ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast or eastern Zaporizhia Oblast and continued routine fire along the line of contact east of Hulyaipole. [26] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are concentrating in the Vuhledar area and expressed concern that Ukrainian forces may launch ground attacks towards Vuhledar in the coming days. [27] However, one Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces in this area have since dispersed. [28] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast) Ukrainian military officials emphasized on September 12 that Ukrainian troops are making tangible gains in Kherson Oblast. Ukraine’s Kakhovka Operational Group announced that Ukrainian forces have penetrated the front line at depths between 4 and 12km in unspecified areas, amounting to over 500 square kilometers of liberated territory. [14] The Kakhovka Group stated that Ukrainian troops have liberated 13 settlements, including Vysokopillya, Novovoznesenske, Bilohirka, Sukhyi Stavok, and Myrolubivka. [15] Ukrainian military officials also stated that Ukrainian troops are continuing an operational interdiction campaign and regularly striking Russian military, logistical, and transportation assets in southern Ukraine. [16] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade has lost more than 85% of its personnel and is now refusing to return to combat, suggesting that even brigade-level elements have suffered substantial losses as a result of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. [17] Social media footage taken by residents of Kherson Oblast provides further visual evidence for Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets and positions in Kherson Oblast. Footage posted on September 12 shows smoke near the Antonivskyi Bridge in Kherson City following a Ukrainian strike, and residents reported the sound of explosions around Kherson City. [18] Ukrainian sources additionally reported that Ukrainian troops successfully destroyed two Russian pontoon bridges near Darivka (15km northeast of Kherson City) and Nova Kakhovka (55km east of Kherson City), thus temporarily rendering passage across the Inhulets and Dnipro Rivers impossible in these areas. [19] Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources discussed ground maneuvers along the Kherson-Mykolaiv frontline on September 12. Russian and Ukrainian sources discussed Russian indirect fire attacks on Ukrainian positions in northern and western Kherson Oblast, confirming that Ukrainian troops are holding recently recaptured positions near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and near the Sukhyi Stavok pocket in western Kherson Oblast. [20] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continued to provide likely excessive figures for Ukrainian losses in Kherson Oblast but did not make any additional claims on September 12. [21] Russian sources are increasingly focused on providing commentary on Ukrainian advances in Kharkiv Oblast. www.understandingwar.org/... x #UkraineWar: Overview of Russian equipment losses added on 13/09/2022



Another massive 2-page list!



Full list: https://t.co/wxuwtueKnD pic.twitter.com/4AhK3kSyI8 — Jakub Janovsky (@Rebel44CZ) September 13, 2022

x The developments are a direct result of successful Ukrainian counteroffensives, the report said. — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 13, 2022 x Unless they want an unpleasantly hot summer break, we advise our valued russian guests not to visit Ukrainian Crimea.



Because no amount of sunscreen will protect them from the hazardous effects of smoking in unauthorised areas.

🎶Bananarama pic.twitter.com/NnWnpZqMhR — Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 11, 2022 x On August 27th, a user called "Sergey Shturman" posted 2 photos of himself near BM-21 "Grad"(https://t.co/KmKUuC37Fg). He didn’t switch off geo, so here it is: water pump station near Berislav. No other buildings are in the vicinity, which proves it's correct (46.8621, 33.3627) pic.twitter.com/eNuGuHOOwH — Mark Krutov (@kromark) September 1, 2022 x Another valuable Ukrainian trophy: captured EW station



The automatic jamming station R-934BMV of the electronic warfare complex Borysoglebsk-2 was captured in Kharkiv Oblast. Back in March Ukrainian troops captured another unit of this equipment.

📷https://t.co/g96Jp665M8 pic.twitter.com/PjdXrCmfwx — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 13, 2022 x ⚡️Document on security guarantees for Ukraine presented in Kyiv.



Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak and former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen presented the first document with recommendations on international security guarantees for Ukraine. — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 13, 2022 x Disappointing signals from Germany while Ukraine needs Leopards and Marders now — to liberate people and save them from genocide. Not a single rational argument on why these weapons can not be supplied, only abstract fears and excuses. What is Berlin afraid of that Kyiv is not? — Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) September 13, 2022 The Pentagon responded to a request to confirm this information as follows: "The Ukrainians are showing that they are quite effective in the counter-offensive in using armor as part of their counter-offensive. So, clearly, that kind of capability is important. But we don't have any specific plans about a specific capability at this point for that medium- to longer-term thinking about actual programs of provision." Thus, the discussion on whether to provide such tanks as Abrams and Leopard 2, as well as IFVs, in particular the American M2 Bradley, is at a similar stage as it is with fighter jets. In other words, it is objectively impossible to say Ukraine will receive Western heavy armored vehicles in the near future. [...] But given the current composition of the armed forces in the allied counties, the only realistic source of a sufficient number of tanks can only be the United States. According to Military Balance, the US Army has 3,700 Abrams M1A1/A2 tanks in stock. When it comes to these, we should take into account that even after a positive decision on their supply, it will take some time to bring them out from reservation. In particular, for Poland, the deadline for receiving 116 Abrams M1A1 SA under the "ring exchange" agreement – as compensation for the T-72 and PT-91 provided to Ukraine – is about a year. en.defence-ua.com/...

x We are watching the collapse of Russian power in real time https://t.co/ThaUCaiPOa — Dr Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) September 13, 2022

x The city of Izium. Putin's "Russian world" came to it for 6 months



Destroyed houses and bridges and military equipment everywhere - this is how the Russian army left #Izium in #Ukraine. Locals say they hoped for liberation, but did not expect it to come so "suddenly".



Video: DW pic.twitter.com/NKDAsCw2TE — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 13, 2022

x More than 80% of Izium's infrastructure is destroyed because of the Russian aggression. "The worst thing is that winter is coming, and the centralized heating system, which was used by most of the residents, is broken" - Maksym Strelnyk, Member of Izium City Council pic.twitter.com/b8x4UIAca0 — UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) September 12, 2022

x Ukraine's Army was likely as surprised as so many others with the speed & success of their Kharkiv offensive over the last five days. It is & continues to be brilliant.



But as one who saw both success & failure in combat, I have some concerns...



Here a 🧵on some thoughts.

1/ — Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) September 13, 2022 Like others, I'm euphoric about UA's advance in Kharkiv & Kherson & their continued active defense on the Donbas front. A brilliant advance resulting from a solid maneuver plan, deception, technologically advanced weapons, use of intelligence, leadership & morale.

@PhillipsPOBrien perfectly describes the action as a Ukrainian military "masterstroke" in @TheAtlantic (attached). And while @laraseligman suggests western officials were surprised by the speed of the advance... 2/ Ukraine Pulled Off a Masterstroke

Ukrainian leaders announced one counteroffensive against Russia—but had another in the works.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/ukraine-russia-putin-kharkiv-kupyansk/671407/

..in this solid piece, I'd sure Ukraine's army were also stunned when their force - w/ great leadership, high morale, good tactics - shaped the battlefield, met a dispersed RU force with low morale, & "ran thru them like crap thru a goose." (Patton) 3/ Western officials ‘surprised’ by Ukraine’s rapid gains in northern counteroffensive

Kyiv notified top U.S. generals in advance of the plan to launch the two-front attack simultaneously.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/12/ukraines-rapid-gains-in-northern-counteroffensive-00056244

Yes, it's been an uplifting week of news from UKR. But there's lots of fighting remaining.

-RU forces fled dozens of villages in Kharkiv Oblast (an 12k sq mile area, 1/2 of West Virginia), & have relocated to Belgorod in Russia or Luhansk (about 10K sq mi, size of Vermont). 4/

RU commanders will likely try to defend the key logistics hub of Kupyansk on the Donets River. To the south (in northern Donetsk), RU forces are likely shoring defenses and probing with artillery near Sloviansk, Spirne, Mykolaivka, & other cities, believing the UA might continue their advance... ...while RU military & their families leave those locations. 5/

In Kherson Oblast (size of Maryland), there's not as much attention, but UA continues offensive operations there. Remember, RU forces that moved there are now fighting & sustaining casualties in an attrition fight. I still see mass RU POWs in the future. 6/

So, what are my concerns? Three things:

Tempo, fatigue, black swans. First, tempo. 7/

Tempo is defined in US Army doctrine (ADP 3-90) as"the rate of speed & rhythm of military operations with respect to the enemy's activities." Tempo doesn't always mean "fast." Sometimes it's fast, sometimes it's slow...tempo is based on capabilities & support to the fight. 8/

The commander determines the tempo of the ops based on the ability to maintain the initiative for offensive operations. Better said: "Don't go too far, too fast, without thinking about everyone that's trying to keep up (artillery, intelligence, fuel, ammo, supplies)." 9/

At times, a commander will see an opening & want to push. But it's important to remember supplies, intel, arty, air defense, engineers...all drive tempo. 2 mentors taught me:

GEN Franks: "know when to go fast & when to slow down"

GEN Dempsey: "Be quick, but don't hurry!" 10/

In truth, there are some elements of Ukraine's force that can't "keep up" with the front line fighters. That's not an insult, it's an understanding of the UA force. Right now, UA field commanders - while excited about gains - must consider operational tempo. It's required. 11/

2d Item: Fatigue. Whether it was Vince Lombardi, Patton, or Shakespeare who said it, it's true: "Fatigue makes cowards of us all." Forces in the attack can attack for about 4-5 days without breaking down. That's not equipment, that's human beings. 12/

My experience in combat - as well as at our Army's national training center, where we study this - is that units will begin to fail if they aren't rested on day 5 of an offensive. And commanders/leaders start making really bad decisions after 3 days of little/no sleep. 13/

We're waking up each day -after 5 days - looking at reports of UA's advance & saying "hope they go farther, take more!" UA forces are whipped right now. Not just caused by movement & lack of sleep, but emotions associated with fighting. I anticipate some needed "pauses." 14/

Finally, "black swans." "An unpredictable event beyond what is normally expected in a situation that may have severe consequences. Black swans are characterized by unpredictability, rarity, severe effects & the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight." 15/

-What are the effects of Putin targeting power infrastructure in many UKR cities?

-What are effects of damage to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station?

-How will UA handle the capture of thousands of RU POWs?

-What is the status of UKR economy, labor market...& grain shipments? 16/

-Will there be a coup at the Kremlin? Who might succeed Putin, and what will it mean?

-Will UKR attempt to recover Crimea?

-What has become of UKR citizens (and children) who have been shipped to camps and unknown RU locations?

-What if RU uses WMD? 17/

All are Issues that have "severe consequences" that require thought, as we all cheer UA's actions on the battlefield. All that said, I'm thankful for those in Ukraine who continue to fight for their sovereignty against an illegal invasion...and those who support them! 18/18 • • •

x footage: https://t.co/b9La5qFk9l — Southern Adirondack Democrat 𝔽ella 🇺🇦 (@upstate_farmer) September 13, 2022

x that's all great but did you ever liberate your own mama's village pic.twitter.com/wnZK97Mr72 — jabuttee - luxurious memes and takes (@jabuttee) September 13, 2022

Many thanks to those who gave me props yesterday. And to whom it may concern, I do have a template for doing these daily stories and try to combine curating a range of media stories with links to other OSINT HUMINT SIGINT stories largely using Twitter. What's been important to me is trying to get credible open sources, including some Russian ones which while having a specific POV, also provide other information, much like those geolocating the enemy’s cellphones for fire control purposes. There is an order to the arrangement with some attention to journalistic message structure as well as the inclusion of quality infographics. Strategic and tactical information are interspersed as well as loss reports, despite their inaccuracy. These juxtapositions are more important to me, as it should be for you in terms of filtering disinformation. I try to be sensitive to propaganda inferences and “official bias”, as well as paying attention to the liberal and radical differences in standpoint or POV about war, anti-war, and peace. Some people have reading issues with my use of a less-linear message style but the point is that the reader and commenter needs a sense that we have a collective authorial purpose in understanding both the barbarism and the humanism of warfare at every level. Think of it as equilibrium rather than balance, and I am glad for the opportunity to contribute even if in these daily pieces it’s more about timely curation than strictly longer-form expository writing, with some intuited attention to the overall editorial position of DK. I try not to repeat what Kos and Mark cover. Likely there would be a different journalistic product if I were part of the DK editorial process.

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