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Arizona Heats Up: Voters are Taking It More Seriously (Arizona Canvass Wrap up) [1]

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Date: 2022-09-13

Hope Springs from Field PAC started knocking on doors in Arizona on March 5th. It was a new state for us, not having crossed the Mississippi in 2021. We started with 3 Obama alums as organizers who agreed to get things started but weren’t committed to the entire Spring and Summer. But we started in March with more than 2,500 names of people who had knocked on doors for them before.

Volunteers in Arizona ea week

So we started slow. 31 volunteers showed up our first weekend, and no one really knew what to expect. It got better. In total, 5,177 volunteers showed up for these canvasses, led by 19 volunteer organizers in the two major metropolitan areas of the state. Because this was new, many people did not understand the whole cooling vehicle concept before the heat started to be a factor. This was a major concern and the heat definitely affected volunteer turnout (our turnout chart to the right is definitely different than elsewhere).

Doors Knocked ea week

Over the Spring and Summer, they knocked on 363,415 doors. We felt pretty good about our progress given the restraints of the weather. Especially because we ended on a high note.

More than 28,877 voters talked to our volunteers since March 5th. Voters opened their doors at a 7.9% rate. (8% is a rule of thumb.) Like i said, we felt like we ended on a high note in Arizona.

Voters who answered questions w/ Issues Survey

18,014 voters filled out, in whole or in part, our Issues survey. Their data has been entered in VAN, the Democratic database, and is available to Democrats who use VAN in the area. This averaged out to a 62.38% response rate. I posted the Issues Survey every week, so i’ll forego doing so again. But the four main queries (outside of the Job Approval questions) were these:

Are you a registered voter at this address?

What Issue do you believe is most urgent?

If you could send one message to your Member?

Is there a single issue that will determine how you vote? What is it?

The voter registration question allowed us to register (or re-register) voters, which will be discussed below. The Urgent Issue data can be seen to the left. Some issues were obvious, but others were not. Nor were they consistent over time. But you can see this was a more (former) military (or parents of military) population. For March, there were three issues that people talked about but as we knocked on more doors, they got more diversified. June 25 was the one that really jumped out at me and it wasn’t because we have more female respondents than men (we did, but it wasn’t that much).

One of the more unique concerns was unique to Georgia because we were canvassing in rural Georgia. That is Agricultural Loans (specifically loan equality for Black farmers) and Ag Policy. We didn’t see this elsewhere because we weren’t canvassing in rural America elsewhere. We did see more border issues or concerns in Arizona than anywhere else, but we also found that people who talked about this were more likely in the Phoenix metro area than Tucson, which is closer to the border.

We heard a lot additional comments when we asked voters if they could send one message to their Member of Congress, what would it be? We got a lot of feedback in this question, but specifically about Reproductive Rights and Gun Violence. Whereas Reproductive Freedom didn’t appear that often among the Urgent Issues unless the issue was favored in the media that week. But these two issues became pretty consistent in the Message to Members query.

Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First Round of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of the communities most effected (the intended targets or victims) of these new voter suppression laws.

Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing

Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that repeated face to face interactions are critical. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors — and we didn’t register new voters (while Republicans dud). We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be cured.

The most interesting question on the Issues Questionnaire was, If there a single issue that will determine how you vote, what is it? In Arizona the most frequent response was where candidates stood on Abortion Rights. 27% of those who gave a response to this question was on Reproductive Rights.

Questions about politicians were also popular. Voters seem to love sharing their opinions about whether or not the like or approve of their elected officials and candidates. The most significant thing i see here is that both Biden and Kelly improved from their lows.

President Biden averaged 58.84% approval over the Summer and Spring. In the Spring, Biden was significantly higher than average, and he finished at his average. Biden averaged 13.96% Disapproval over this time. Sen. Kelly averaged 72.92% over this same time. He finished significantly higher than that. Kelly averaged 10% disapproval over this time period. You can compare what we found at the door from Democratic and Unaffiliated voters with 538’s polling average of the electorate to the left.

We registered 473 New Voters at the doors this year. We re-registered (or updated their addresses) 2,525 voters at their doors.

Over the six calendar months we canvassed in Arizona, we collected 1,418 Constituent Service Request forms. These were mostly local problems on primarily public properties that voters believed needed to be addressed. In general, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.

We also collected Q(uestion)-slips, or questions that voters had for candidates and office-holders. In Arizona, we collected 94 Q-slips which were sent directly to the campaigns of Democratic candidates. We send them to campaigns to forward to their public servant/candidates so that they campaigns could use them, if they so desired.

Volunteers also filled out Observation Forms when they saw or heard something that could be useful in the upcoming campaign. These are things like presence of children, or military family, etc. These are entered into VAN, as well, available to any Democratic candidate who uses VAN in the area.

We also ask voters in the Issues Survey if they have any concerns about the upcoming elections. Voters who tell us they have experience voter intimidation or other problems with voting are asked to fill out Incident Reports. We found 8 voters who wanted to fill out an Incident Reports since March, primarily in Tucson. We collate these Incident Reports, to be shared with local, state and federal officials in charge of voting, as well as use them to plan out our Election Protection strategy in the fall. They could also be used in court cases.

But asking — and collecting — Incident Reports has a second purpose at this time. We are reminding voters that we care about Election Protection, that if they witness something, they can say something and it will matter. It also assures them that we are ready to do something if they see something.

By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions in some states, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.

I am aware of the volume of data presented in this post. But it is the result of the data we collect at the door, to be entered in VAN and accessible by all Democratic candidates who utilize VAN this Fall. The focus on the “horse-race” aspect of this data is unintentional, because the data is what the it is. It is useful for Democratic candidates and provides paths to victory for data-driven candidates (which most campaigns are these days).

If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing

Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/13/2122608/-Arizona-Heats-Up-Voters-are-Taking-It-More-Seriously-Arizona-Canvass-Wrap-up

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