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What impact will covid deaths have on mid term elections? [1]

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Date: 2022-09-12

Does anyone know if any of the polling organizations or election analysts are taking the disparate number of deaths from covid between Republicans and Democrats into account in election projections?



When the pandemic started, it hit the heavily populated areas first, and that probably means that more D’s died than R’s but those areas are typically heavily D. New York City and San Francisco are not any less blue than they were.



As the pandemic spread, covid became an “equal opportunity” killer and the deaths were (probably, but I have no proof of this) pretty evenly split between Republicans and Democrats.



BUT once the vaccines were available, anecdotal evidence indicates that most vaccine deniers were republicans (and probably most MAGA Republicans) and therefore, an outsized number of the deaths were Republicans who had refused the vaccine. There are still roughly 500 covid deaths a day in the US.



I would not expect it to make a difference in heavily red areas. Alabama and Mississippi are not going to be voting democratic in this election cycle, but what about purple districts or states? Ohio? New Mexico?



Is there any data on the partisan split on covid deaths, and any kind of analysis on the potential impact on the midterms?

Poll 104 votes Show Results What impact will the disparity in covid deaths have in midterm election? None Marginal at best, no difference for states less than 3 congressional districts flip blue Moderate, flips at least one stat and 5-10 house seats blue Strong, flips 3 or more states, and more than 10 house seats Other - please see comments 104 votes Vote Now! What impact will the disparity in covid deaths have in midterm election? None 17 votes Marginal at best, no difference for states less than 3 congressional districts flip blue 46 votes Moderate, flips at least one stat and 5-10 house seats blue 35 votes Strong, flips 3 or more states, and more than 10 house seats 5% 5 votes Other - please see comments 1% 1 vote

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