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Ukraine update: Russia wants out of Kherson, as the reality of their trap finally dawns on them [1]

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Date: 2022-09-12

Working the southern Kherson front

Remember when Russia walked into an obvious trap in Kherson Oblast and everyone knew it except Russia? Well, they finally caught on.

x The information was provided by the spokesperson of Operational Command "South" Natalia Gumenyuk.



Apparently, the Russians want to be allowed to withdraw with their weapons intact. — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 12, 2022

Rumors about this have swirled for the past several days, with reports of entire units abandoning their positions or of Russian forces collapsing their lines closer to Kherson city, so that artillery on the other side of the Dnipro River can help support them. But this isn’t a rumor. It’s sourced to the Ukrainian military itself. So several things might be happening:

1) It’s psyops. It’s all fiction, meant to pressure Russian units in the area into quitting. If they believe their fellow countrymen are negotiating a way out, they might not want to be left holding the bag.

2) It’s true, but it’s some units negotiating. There’s no single command for this axis—there’s Rosgvardia (Putin’s personal national guard), VDV airborne, Russian naval infantry, regular Russian army, proxy forces from Luhansk and Donetsk, and who knows what else, and all answer to different commands.

3) It’s true, and somehow, Ukraine is negotiating with that entire mishmash of an occupying force.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych thinks it’s the second option.

x Regarding low morale in Russian forces. Ukrainian south command report that junior officers of the Russian army are looking for contacts with Ukrainian security forces to surrender. Units in the right bank of Dnieper are deserting. — Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 12, 2022

Assuming it’s the second or third option, Ukraine’s negotiating position should be simple: Russian forces can happily withdraw into a POW camp after handing their equipment over. Seriously, “We’re out of ammo, please let us out with all our gear” is not a particularly well-leveraged negotiating position. There’s no plausible “or else...” that is even remotely compelling to Ukraine. The only one that applies here is “or else the occupiers die.”

So yeah, this:

x Surrender cards are being distributed to 🇷🇺forces:



'Your ticket to a peaceful life. Show this card to a Ukrainian soldier - it will save your life and help you get back home'



On the back: a telegram chat & phone number they can contact 'to receive detailed support'.#Ukraine️ pic.twitter.com/sGFqZTiDyu — WhereisRussiaToday (@WhereisRussia) September 12, 2022

Aretovych says that “In places where Russian forces demonstrate resistance, Ukrainians are firing shells with leaflets calling for surrender. An unofficial report says there are 5,000 Russian POWs in Ukrainian hands.” This pause to rest, refit, refuel, and repair forces used in the Kharkiv offensive is a great time to coax Russian and proxy forces to surrender.

We’ve seen Russians overrun, and we’ve seen them run. We hadn’t seen them play dead though:

x Goodnight #Ukraine. You know things are bad for Russia, when its hardware starts playing doggo. Must have heard a Ukrainian UAV. Looks like a Kamaz Typhoon armoured vehicle. pic.twitter.com/kpBHj53N0x — Glasnost Gone (@GlasnostGone) September 12, 2022

This is pretty:

x A new🗺️from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats depicts total liberated Ukrainian territory as of September 11, 2022.#Ukraine has liberated over 60,000 square km of territory since the Russians began retreating from around Kyiv in early April. Quick🧵below. pic.twitter.com/bORyqNNHWY — ISW (@TheStudyofWar) September 12, 2022

That chunk of red in the northeastern corner of the country will soon be blue.

As for the current situation on the ground, it’s mostly mopping up in Kharkiv right now. Lots of rumors on other fronts, but I’m not sure most are believable. What better way to sow panic in Russian soldiers than to tell them that all the fronts are collapsing? Ukrainian forces will need a week or two to catch their breaths after that Kharkiv sprint.

The one rumor I’ll mention, because it’s all over Russian Telegram, is that Ukraine is massing forces around Vuledar, presumably for a push toward Mariupol. If true, and not saying it is, why would anyone assume that Ukraine would do the obvious thing? Hasn’t Kherson-Kharkiv taught us that Ukraine thrives on misdirection, and is quite capable of pulling it off? If Ukraine is genuinely massing forces around Vuledar, nothing guarantees that’s where Ukraine will launch a major attack.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/12/2122470/-Ukraine-update-Russia-wants-out-of-Kherson-as-the-reality-of-their-trap-finally-dawns-on-them

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