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How the Arc of History Bends [1]

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Date: 2022-09-12

I’ve been feeling somewhat cocky lately about our chances for an increased Democratic majority in the Senate. Pride, as they say…

Now, not quite so much. I just ran the 270 to Win Senate election simulator several times. Senate election simulator Yes, we win more often than we lose. No, we don’t win nearly enough.

I remember running the 270 to Win simulations for the 2016 Presidential election. Yes, Hillary beat Donald most of the time. No, she did not win all of the time. It made me nervous… as it turned out, rightly so.

I think I first heard of this fable in Shogun . As a village elder explains to a youngster, “There is an old story about the rabbit and the eagle. The eagle has practically every advantage; size, speed, talons, beak, eyesight, and the fact that is does not have to be exposed to death while feeding. The rabbit has only quickness and alertness. Yet more often than not, the rabbit survives.”

“Why?” asks the youth.

“Because”, explains the elder, “The eagle is striving only for a meal. The rabbit is fighting for its life”.

The odds of victory may, slightly, favor us. The consequences of failure, however, are likely catastrophic. To sum them up, without Senate control, there would be few, if any, significant controls over Republican efforts to undermine Democracy.

Essentially it would be the Executive office versus the Legislative Branch, the still-packed Judicial Branch, and an assortment of state branches of government. That is a lot more power working to undermine democracy than to uphold and expand it. The arc of history does not bend towards justice on its own power. It needs our help.

So...if you are out there working, keep working. If you are not out there working, get out there and work. What is a few months of effort compared to the end of Democracy?

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/12/2122356/-How-the-Arc-of-History-Bends

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