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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Ukraine's gains in Kharkiv Oblast are significant but not conflict's end [1]
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Date: 2022-09-12
x This lines might be the most powerful of the war so far
https://t.co/e68KD55AnF — Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) September 12, 2022
ISW:
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis. Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around Izyum. Russian forces have previously weakened the northern Donbas axis by redeploying units from this area to Southern Ukraine, complicating efforts to slow the Ukrainian advance or at minimum deploy a covering force for the retreat. Ukrainian gains are not confined to the Izyum area; Ukrainian forces reportedly captured Velikiy Burluk on September 10, which would place Ukrainian forces within 15 kilometers of the international border.[1] Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April.
x Strong 1905 vibes about Russia's current war. — David Frum (@davidfrum) September 10, 2022
Well, then. The 1904-5 Russo-Japanese war ended badly for the Tsar, and led directly to the 1905 Russian Rebellion (setting the stage for 1917).
x Russia lost 7.7% of the occupied territory since 20220602.
Most of that was lost during 1 week of Ukrainian offensive, 6.9%
It was last week. This tells us a little bit about what RuAF can expect in the future, it is what they call an ass whopping. pic.twitter.com/TGigjcQibH — Def Mon (@DefMon3) September 12, 2022
Mark Galeotti/Twitter:
Rossiiskaya Gazeta, the Kremlin's 'newspaper of record,' is as stodgy as you might expect, but in light of the extraordinary Ukrainian successes in the past few days, it's instructive to see what it's telling Russians today (and what it's not). A short thread First, and most obvious, there's not even a hint of the Ukrainians' advance from Kharkov deep into Russian-held territory. Quite the opposite, instead there are tallies, drawn directly from MOD briefings, of alleged enemy losses (4000 KIA since 6 Sept) … The Kremlin is happy to lie, but can't just ignore realities, and so is really struggling to create any positive narratives on issues where some basic fact-checking is possible. This is the kind of dilemma we saw in Chechnya (x2) and the Sov war in Afghanistan, and tends to be a sign that the state's control over the narrative is cracking. It is not so much IMO that Russians up to now have necessarily *believed* the official line so much as that they have had no reason to both *disbelieving* it as that is dangerous both politically and also morally. I remember one parent of a vet from Afghanistan I interviewed for my PhD. She said "I didn't want to believe what people were saying about the war, because if I did, then I would either have to act or be a part of it."
x It turns out that culture war bugaboos are not a smart basis for geopolitical and military analysis. pic.twitter.com/OSo3lUS0c2 — Nicholas Grossman (@NGrossman81) September 10, 2022
Lawrence Freedman/Substack:
Gradually, then Suddenly “How did you go bankrupt?” Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises. As with bankruptcy so with military defeat. What appears to be a long, painful grind can quickly turn into a rout. A supposedly resilient and well-equipped army can break and look for means of escape. This is not unusual in war. We saw it happen with the Afghan Army in the summer of 2021.
x "The war in Ukraine is a test of whether a tyranny that claims to be a democracy can triumph", - @TimothyDSnyder ponders the future of democracy and the crucial role of Ukrainian victory.
https://t.co/7sdgNzUvCT — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 9, 2022
And in other news:
David M Drucker/Washington Examiner:
'The president comes up in most conversations': New Hampshire GOP Senate contender navigates Trump Republican Senate contender Chuck Morse acknowledged Donald Trump is a polarizing figure in the Granite State but said the former president’s agenda was a boon for the country while declaring he “would love to have his endorsement.” Campaigning ahead of Tuesday’s primary, Morse told the Washington Examiner in an interview Trump has been a hot topic as Republicans vie for the right to challenge Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) in the general election. Most Republican voters Morse talks to want a return to Trump policies, he said, while conceding not all of them miss the constant controversy the former president stirred up with his provocative attitude. “The president comes up in most conversations throughout the state of New Hampshire,” Morse, the president of the state Senate and a key ally of Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH), said Friday in Rochester, a town of 35,000 people 40 miles northeast of Manchester, New Hampshire, that is something of a political bellwether in statewide elections. “In almost every conversation, people want to get back to Trump’s policies,” Morse added. “They believe what he did on the border, what he did with energy, what he did with budgeting, was the right way to head as a country. What they didn’t like was the way he presented it, so I get both sides of that when I’m out on the campaign trail.”
His opponent, retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, and more hard right, currently leads in the polls.
x "Texas added about 300,000 new voters from June 24, the day of the high court's ruling, to late August. Democrats now have a 10-percentage point advantage among new registrants."
Register to vote by Oct. 11.
https://t.co/j8rGTDUonx — Chris Hollins (@CGHollins) September 9, 2022
Rachel Monroe/New Yorker:
The Supreme Court’s Abortion Decision Has Given Beto O’Rourke a Fighting Chance As a candidate for Texas governor, the Democrat was considered a long shot. But the state’s new—and extreme—restrictions have galvanized his campaign. Even before the trigger law went into effect, Texas’s punitive abortion policies were generating uncertainty and fear—and political opportunities for Democrats. O’Rourke appeared alongside Elizabeth Weller, one of a number of Texas women carrying nonviable fetuses who have been forced to continue their pregnancies despite physical and emotional risks. In May, during Weller’s eighteenth week of pregnancy, her water broke. Doctors determined that her amniotic sac had ruptured; the fetus would not survive outside the womb. After consulting with her physician, Weller and her husband decided to have the pregnancy terminated, but, because of uncertainty about the legal circumstances in Texas, the hospital refused to perform the procedure unless she developed certain severe symptoms, she said. “The administration of the hospital told me that I was not sick enough at the time that this happened to me,” she said. “And they sent me home to wait for either my baby to die or for me to incur an infection.” After several days, as Weller’s symptoms worsened, an ethics board finally determined that she could undergo the procedure.
x For those thinking about telling Ukraine it must agree to this or that term for peace….
https://t.co/5fCGfgEAKe — Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) September 11, 2022
WaPo:
Americans are finally feeling better about the economy Gas prices are falling, and there are signs households are learning to deal with inflation After months of gloom, Americans are finally starting to feel better about the economy and more resigned to inflation. Consumer sentiment, which hit rock bottom in June, has begun inching up in recent weeks. Gas prices are down. Decades-high inflation appears to be easing. And at the same time, Americans are making small changes — buying meat in bulk, for example, or shifting more of their shopping to discount chains — suggesting that many families are learning to deal with higher prices. “While consumer sentiment is still fairly low by historic standards, we’re starting to see pretty dramatic improvements,” said Joanne W. Hsu, an economist at the University of Michigan and director of its closely watched consumer surveys. “It’s very much being driven by a slowdown in inflation, particularly with the decline in gas prices.”
x One of the biggest cases the Supreme Court will hear next term could totally upend American elections — and the conservative legal establishment is bought in. Thanks to POLITICO Nightly for giving me space to write about the independent legislature theory
https://t.co/gx93xulkLY — Zach Montellaro (@ZachMontellaro) September 9, 2022
Nicole Lafond/TPM:
Where Things Stand: Watching The Christian Right’s Power Play Out In Real Time Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told reporters yesterday that a vote on the bill could happen in coming weeks. He also suggested that Democrats would rather vote on the bill as its own package with enough GOP support to overcome the filibuster then to have to tuck it into a short term spending bill. But getting Republicans on the record on same-sex marriage ahead of the midterms is proving to be an uphill battle as some key senators, like Johnson, come out against the bill. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) even used the same religious liberties language in explaining his opposition. As we wait for more clarity on the dynamics of any possible impending vote, I want to re-up this piece from last month from TPM contributor Sarah Posner. In it, Sarah argues that the leaders of the Christian right’s powerful political apparatus are already signaling that, for them, Obergefell is the new Roe. Senate Republicans have heard the message. And they fear the movement’s power.
x Karamo said: "They were too busy championing to kill their children ... so they can live sexually promiscuous lives so they didn't have time to watch their porn."
https://t.co/ZFxNkGxJnq — Steve Neavling (@MCmuckraker) September 11, 2022
Philip Bump/WaPo:
Can Mastriano win in a purple state while staying in right-wing bubble? It’s not uncommon that candidates will work to appeal to their party’s poles as they try to win a primary. Often, they then tack back to the middle. But when [PA Republican Senatorial candidate Doug] Mastriano won his primary in May, he made clear that very night that he’d be doing no such thing. His acceptance speech was a mélange of culture-war rhetoric and talking points that could have been pulled from a Tucker Carlson monologue. Not only was he going to govern as a hard-right conservative, he assured any observers, but it became clear that he was going to continue to run as one.
[END]
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