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How the party ends... [1]
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Date: 2022-09-11
I am starting to really think hard about what the end of the conflict in Ukraine would look like. I am assuming there will be a third major push by Ukraine which will lead to an unraveling of Russian forces on mainland. We have seen many times now that when faced with certain loss, Russia withdraws to the border — they do not fight over trifles like a small town. When they left Kiyv — they left everywhere right up to the border. Same thing now in Kharkiv. Likely, the same will happen in Donetsk and Luhansk areas.
Russia is in many ways like the titular character in La Femme Nikita — the unholy feminine with a big gun and no worries over the little things. (And yes, Russia is seen internally as having a fundamentally feminine character despite all the male bravado of its thugs). So for a country that collectively thinks in terms of subjugating entire nations and nothing less will do, fighting over scraps of land near the border just is not an option.
Now once they lose mainland Ukraine holdings, the focus will likely shift to Crimea. Kerch bridge is directly within sight from Azov coast of Ukraine at a distance of about 145 miles. So a lot of Harpoon versions (and likely other missiles Ukraine has) would be able to hit it and so we can assume it would come down soon after Ukraine reaches Azov sea. A direct invasion is a possibility but a prolonged siege is far more likely since it would be the best pressure point for Ukraine to force Russia to the negotiating table. This would look roughly as follows: water to Crimea is shut down, fuel depots are blown up, and all deliveries by ship are made impossible by drone attacks and missiles. Every military installation including black sea fleet ships are then slowly blown up one by one, with someone like Zelensky making a speech after each hit asking whether Russia has had enough.
The timetable is also clear. Ukraine would ideally want to get to the Crimea siege by November of 2022. Why? Because that’s the time of the G20 meeting. There is a high likelihood that this summit will be THE place where the new world order will get hammered out between NATO and China:
odessa-journal.com/…
Assuming this all goes to plan, the big question is… who and how will prevent crazy Vlad from pressing the button. We have not yet seen all the tricks Ukraine has up its sleeve and we do not yet know exactly how huge and how humiliating Russian losses will be but everything except the nuclear aspect seems to be in place for the grand finale.
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