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Majority Savers: Let's Support Laura Gillen for New York-4! [1]

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Date: 2022-09-09

Candidate Background

Her campaign website is the only place to find information about her, and she turned on the firehose and provided a TON of background about herself. Let’s see if I can distillate the novel down to the bare essentials.

She graduated from Georgetown University with a degree in government and political science. She was cum laude during her time at Georgetown and then studied in a studio back in New York and travelled the world. She eventually wound of at NYU Law School and became a lawyer.

Much of her life has been spent volunteering with various charities and other organizations, starting with her youth. The latest organization she volunteered for distributed PPE during the pandemic.

She first won political office in the town of Hempstead, one of the largest townships in New York. During her tenure there, she has handled everything from a $500 million budget to COVID-19 pandemic response to starting up environmental programs.

Signature Issues

Gillen is likely to be a pragmatic liberal in the mold of former Rep. Carolyn McCarthy and Rep Kathleen Rice if elected to Congress. She will be solid on health care, abortion rights, and defending democracy just like nearly every other candidate that I have covered. Let’s see her unique issues instead, as it provides insight into her priorities and what is important to the district.

Tax Reform: Just like many others I have profiled recently, Gillen lists a huge priority in restoring the SALT deduction on the federal taxes. This was taken away by TFG’s tax deform in 2017, and it has hurt high tax states like New York. She would also lower taxes for the middle class in any way possible while making the wealthy pay their fair share.

Pandemic Preparedness: As a supervisor for a large town, Gillen saw the havoc the pandemic caused on her community. She would champion funds for better vaccine development, better viral detection systems, and federal oversight into research in this area. She would be a vote for Biden’s $81 billion pandemic preparedness plan which is sitting languishing in Congress.

Mental Health: With the pandemic, the shoestring mental health system has come into focus. More people than ever need these services, yet funding is lower than it has ever been. Gillen would make it a priority to fund mental health programs for veterans with PTSD and school students who are dealing with the aftermath of the pandemic.

Elections History

Recent Elections —

2020 President: Joe Biden (D) 56.6%, TFG (R-inc) 42.1%

2020 House: Kathleen Rice (D-inc) 56.1%, Douglas Tuman (R) 43.0%

2022 Race Rating: Likely Democratic

2022 PVI: D+5

The last time that Republicans held this district was the 1994 Republican Revolution. A conservative challenger knocked off a moderate Republican incumbent that year, and very narrowly won the election aided by the terrible political environment that year. In 1996, former Rep. Carolyn McCarthy curbstomped the sitting member of Congress to represent this area.

This is a district that Al Gore easily carried in 2000, and John Kerry also carried in 2004. Furthermore, Obama carried it twice, Clinton carried it, and Biden also won it in 2020. Why this district may be competitive is the fact that in midterm elections there tends to be a drop off in voters when a Democratic president is in power. This happened in 1998 and 2010 with narrow races.

Rep. Kathleen Rice came to hold this district after a bruising election battle in 2014. Once again, the midterm blues hit this district and it was a narrow race. Rice wasn’t troubled in any of her other elections, but she is retiring in 2022. Open seats are always the trickiest to defend, which is why the seat is on the board. Laura Gillen is favored, but she cannot assume her path to victory is assured.

Political Tour of the District

NY04 covers the southwestern communities of Nassau County on Long Island. It isn’t as swing as the other three districts, but it is an open seat.

This district has some very dark blue portions where black voters hold sway, some light blue portions that are just becoming majority-minority, and then the rest of the district is pink to red. Gillen will have to connect with various different sets of voters to fully turnout the district and win.

Here’s where this race will be won in the 4th district.

Valley Stream and Belmont Area: The communities here are filled with black voters and are usually attached to a different district. Their inclusion in the 4th district makes it more secure, so long as Gillen is able to make sure they turn out to vote.

The communities here are filled with black voters and are usually attached to a different district. Their inclusion in the 4th district makes it more secure, so long as Gillen is able to make sure they turn out to vote. Hempstead/Uniondale/Freeport: The area around these three towns is filled with minority voters, and it is also the home turf of Gillen. She will have to watch out for midterm drop off, but otherwise this part of the district is very favorable to her.

The area around these three towns is filled with minority voters, and it is also the home turf of Gillen. She will have to watch out for midterm drop off, but otherwise this part of the district is very favorable to her. Long Beach: This beachfront community is a light shade of blue, and it is important that it doesn’t turn against Gillen as it could be a swingy area. She will have to work hard to connect to the people found in this town to ensure they vote in a way that helps her campaign.

Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.

Wantagh and Seaford Area: This area of the district is rather red, and Gillen cannot count on voters here to pull the lever for the blue team. Her goal is damage mitigation and matching the Biden margins here or close to it so that she can defend this seat.

This area of the district is rather red, and Gillen cannot count on voters here to pull the lever for the blue team. Her goal is damage mitigation and matching the Biden margins here or close to it so that she can defend this seat. Southwest Nassau County: Another reliably red area, these communities are sharply polarized from the communities surrounding it. Gillen must once again limit the damage these areas can cause her, and hope that these areas turn out at a lesser rate than favorable ones to her.

Another reliably red area, these communities are sharply polarized from the communities surrounding it. Gillen must once again limit the damage these areas can cause her, and hope that these areas turn out at a lesser rate than favorable ones to her. Garden City Area: This area is swingy in nature, but it has a pinkish to reddish hue to it. Gillen must contest this area to satisfy the voters on our team, but otherwise she cannot count on this area to create her winning margin. It is all about limiting the damage caused here.

Activism — Help How You Can!

Laura Gillen needs more donations urgently. She is being outraised by her GQP opponent, which is a sign of weakness. GIllen only raised $297k for the 2nd quarter, which frankly is not enough to run a modern campaign. Her opponent, Anthony D’Esposito, raised a much more robust $538k for the quarter. If she doesn’t pick up her fundraising, she risks dark money swamping her this election.

Gillen is also struggling with cash on hand, with only $385k to spend at the end of June. She had a contested primary as well, so it is likely she spent most of it to win. D’Esposito is sitting on $550k cash on hand, which is better than Gillen but not by as much as I feared it could be. Laura Gillen needs donations ASAP to hold this seat. Please donate today!

DONATE TO LAURA GILLEN HERE

With so many other Long Island races to choose from, it is quite possible that this race is missed in the scramble to snap up available volunteers. This contest needs them too, and there isn’t a clear “volunteer” link on her campaign website. I would contact the Gillen campaign at the following address to volunteer: https://www.lauragillenforcongress.com/contact/. That may be the best way to reach her at this time.

Gillen has a typical profile for someone who is running for Congress for the first time. She has a respectable 3.6k followers on Twitter. Please help her social media grow by following her today!

x Our campaign owes a tremendous amount of gratitude to so many residents helping us put #PeopleOverPolitics, but the hard work has just begun. We cannot afford to take our foot off the pedal. Join our #NY04 campaign today & let’s win in November together! https://t.co/0PWYtuCnuy — Laura Gillen (@LauraAGillen) August 24, 2022

She also has a Facebook page at LauraAGillen. Go ahead and check it out like I did, even though it is mostly the same material as on her Twitter page.

I’m not too worried about this race, so long as Laura Gillen ups her fundraising to better levels after the primary. The fact that it is an open seat gives me some concern, as those are always the hardest to defend. Majority Savers has written so many articles that I have lost track of the number of them. Thank you for reading, recommending, and retweeting this article. I can’t do this without all of you!

How to find all Majority Savers’ diaries:

To find all past and future diaries of the Majority Savers group, go to their Diaries List. (We suggest that you Bookmark that page.) The home page of the Majority Savers group is here.

Laura Gillen for New York-4

Donate | Volunteer | Campaign | FaceBook | Twitter

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