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Recent Senate Polls Suggest Republican Losses [1]

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Date: 2022-09-08

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…

It’s not quite Fall yet, but Republican prospects for winning control of the US Senate are certainly cooling off, according to a wide variety of opinion polls that have been released in the last couple of weeks.

Recent Polls of US Senate Races Date State Democrat Republican Other Pollster 9/3 PA Fetterman 49% Oz 40% Raba Res. 8/29 PA Fetterman 49% Oz 44% PPP 9/1 UT Lee 46% (i) McMullin 47% Impact Res. (D) 9/7 WA Murray 48% (i) Smiley 39% PPP 9/5 OH Ryan 48% Vance 39% Center St. PAC 8/23 OH Ryan 50% Vance 47% Impact Res. (D) 9/4 NC Beasley 44% Budd 47% (2 others) 3% Trafalgar (R) 8/30 NC Beasley 42% Budd 41% (2 others) 6% PPP 9/3 FL Demings 44% Rubio 47% (i) Susquehanna 8/31 FL Demings 47% Rubio 49% (i) Impact Res. (D) 9/1 FL Demings 45% Rubio 46% (i) Clarity Res. (D) 8/18 FL Demings 46% Rubio 49% (i) Impact Res. (D) 8/24 NV Cortez Masto 44% (i) Laxalt 40% (3 others) 4% Impact Res. (D) 8/31 CO Bennett 46% (i) O’Dea 35% Peotter 7% PPP 8/25 CO Bennett 48% (i) O’Dea 47% Tarrance Grp (R) 8/24 IN McDermont 42% Young 45(i) Change Res. (D) 8/29 GA Warnock 44% (i) Walker 46% Susquehana 8/27 GA Warnock 47% (i) Walker 48% Oliver 3% Trafalgar (R) 8/28 IL Duckworth 58%(i) Salvi 35% Victory Geek 8/22 AZ Kelly 50% (i) Masters 43% RMG Res. 8/27 AZ Kelly 48% (i) Masters 44% Victor 4% Trafalgar (R) 8/25 WI Barnes 49% Johnson 47%(i) Trafalger (R)

The table has the dates the polling concluded. The Website 538 gives Democrats a 70% chance of controlling the Senate in January. Looking only at polling, 538’s “Lite” model gives Democrats 82% chance of holding the US Senate.

A Democratic gain looks likely in Pennsylvania and quite possible in Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina. Republican Senator Lee could lose to Independent/Republican Evan McMullin in Utah, according to a poll paid for by McMullin’s campaign.

The Democratic seat most in danger appears to be Senator Warnock in Georgia who is locked in a tight race with Herschel Walker. If you look at an average of all the polls in Georgia over the last couple of months, Warnock has a slight lead.

Most congressional race models for 2022 lean Republican since the party of the President has suffered major losses in Midterm elections-- 2018, 2014, 2010, and 2006, a consistent pattern. Joe Biden has not been popular and most voters say the country is on the wrong track. That adds to a preception Democrats will not do well.

However, all recent polls asking which party do voters want to control the US Congress show a Democratic preference, averaging 3%. Whether is from abortion, Trump, lower gas prices, recent legislative successes, or quality of candidates, Democrats in Senate races are exceeding expectations.

US House Races Shifting Slowly from Republicans

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…

For the US House, 538 says Democrat odds are improving and are now at 26% chance of keeping control. Using the “Lite” model using only polling, Democrats have a 39% chance of having a majority. These models are slowly improving for Democrats.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/8/2121577/-Recent-Senate-Polls-Suggest-Republican-Losses

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