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Daily Kos : Election Outlook : 2016 Race Ratings [1]

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Date: 2022-09

Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings

This continually updated page contains Daily Kos Elections' current competitiveness ratings for all 2016 federal and gubernatorial elections.

Jump to: Senate Ratings | Gubernatorial Ratings | House Ratings | Definitions

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R CA (OPEN) CO (Bennet) CT (Blumenthal) HI (Schatz) IL (Kirk) MD (OPEN) NY (Schumer) OR (Wyden) VT (Leahy) WA (Murray) NV (OPEN) WI (Johnson) IN (OPEN) MO (Blunt) NC (Burr) NH (Ayotte) PA (Toomey) AZ (McCain) FL (Rubio) AK (Murkowski) AL (Shelby) AR (Boozman) GA (Isakson) IA (Grassley) ID (Crapo) KS (Moran) KY (Paul) LA (OPEN) ND (Hoeven) OH (Portman) OK (Lankford) SC (Scott) SD (Thune) UT (Lee)

Same-party races

Race Party Candidates Rating CA-Sen (D) Kamala Harris Loretta Sanchez Safe Harris

Democrats currently control 46 seats in the Senate, including two independents who caucus with the Democrats. Republicans control 54 seats. In total, 34 seats are up for election in 2016.

Past ratings changes

Race Date Old Rating New Rating NV-Sen 07-Nov-2016 Tossup Lean Democratic IL-Sen 07-Nov-2016 Likely Democratic Safe Democratic MO-Sen 28-Oct-2016 Lean Republican Tossup IL-Sen 28-Oct-2016 Lean Democratic Likely Democratic CA-Sen 24-Oct-2016 Likely Harris Safe Harris OH-Sen 07-Oct-2016 Likely Republican Safe Republican NC-Sen 07-Oct-2016 Lean Republican Tossup IA-Sen 07-Oct-2016 Likely Republican Safe Republican FL-Sen 07-Oct-2016 Lean Republican Likely Republican AZ-Sen 23-Sept-2016 Lean Republican Likely Republican FL-Sen 16-Sept-2016 Tossup Lean Republican MO-Sen 16-Sept-2016 Likely Republican Lean Republican OH-Sen 9-Sept-2016 Lean R Likely R CO-Sen 9-Sept-2016 Likely D Safe D NC-Sen 19-Aug-2016 Likely Republican Lean Republican PA-Sen 19-Aug-2016 Lean Republican Tossup CA-Sen 5-Aug-2016 Lean Harris Likely Harris IN-Sen 5-Aug-2016 Lean R Tossup IN-Sen 11-July-2016 Likely R Lean R CO-Sen 5-July-2016 Lean D Likely D IL-Sen 21-June-2016 Tossup Lean D CA-Sen 13-June-2016 --- Lean Harris IA-Sen 4-March-2016 Safe R Likely R WI-Sen 28-Jan-2016 Tossup Lean D NH-Sen 10-Oct-2015 Lean R Tossup

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R DE (OPEN) OR (Brown) WA (Inslee) MT (Bullock) IN (OPEN) MO (OPEN) NC (McCrory) NH (OPEN) VT (OPEN) WV (OPEN) ND (OPEN) UT (Herbert)

Twelve governorships are up for election in 2016. Eight are held by Democrats and four are held by Republicans.

Past ratings changes

Race Date Old Rating New Rating OR-Gov 07-Nov-2016 Likely Democratic Safe Democratic WA-Gov 07-Nov-2016 Likely Democratic Safe Democratic IN-Gov 14-Oct-2016 Lean Republican Tossup DE-Gov 07-Oct-2016 Likely Democratic Safe Democratic WV-Gov 19-Aug-2016 Lean Republican Tossup WA-Gov 23-May-2016 Lean D Likely D ND-Gov 16-May-2016 Likely R Safe R LA-Gov 12-Nov-2015 Lean R Tossup LA-Gov 29-Oct-2015 Likely R Lean R

Final 2015 ratings:

KY (OPEN): Tossup

LA (OPEN): Tossup

MS (Bryant): Safe R

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R NY-03 (OPEN) AZ-01 (OPEN) CA-07 (Bera) CA-24 (OPEN) FL-13 (Jolly) NH-01 (Guinta) NV-03 (OPEN) NV-04 (Hardy) CA-10 (Denham) CA-25 (Knight) CA-49 (Issa) CO-06 (Coffman) FL-07 (Mica) FL-18 (OPEN) FL-26 (Curbelo) IA-01 (Blum) IL-10 (Dold) MI-01 (OPEN) ME-02 (Poliquin) MN-02 (OPEN) MN-08 (Nolan) NE-02 (Ashford) NJ-05 (Garrett) NY-19 (OPEN) NY-22 (OPEN) PA-08 (OPEN) TX-23 (Hurd) VA-10 (Comstock) CA-21 (Valadao) CO-03 (Tipton) IA-03 (Young) IN-09 (OPEN) KS-03 (Yoder) MI-07 (Walberg) MN-03 (Paulsen) NY-24 (Katko) WI-08 (OPEN) AK-AL (Young) AZ-02 (McSally) IL-12 (Bost) IN-02 (Walorski) MI-08 (Bishop) MT-AL (Zinke) NY-01 (Zeldin) NY-21 (Stefanik) NY-23 (Reed) PA-16 (OPEN) UT-04 (Love) VA-05 (OPEN)

Same-party races

Race Party Candidates Rating CA-17 (D) Mike Honda Ro Khanna No Favorite CA-44 (D) Nanette Barragán Isadore Hall Lean Hall CA-46 (D) Lou Correa Bao Nguyen Likely Correa WA-07 (D) Pramila Jayapal Brady Walkinshaw Lean Jayapal

Past ratings changes

Race Date Old Rating New Rating NV-03 11-07-2016 Tossup Lean D CA-10 11-07-2016 Lean R Tossup CA-17 11-07-2016 Lean Khanna No Favorite CA-25 11-07-2016 Lean R Tossup CA-52 11-07-2016 Likely D Safe D MI-06 11-07-2016 Likely R Safe R NY-01 11-07-2016 Lean R Likely R IN-09 10-28-2016 Likely R Lean R MD-06 10-28-2016 Likely D Safe D NH-01 10-27-2016 Tossup Lean D CA-49 10-24-2016 Lean Republican Tossup ME-02 10-24-2016 Lean Republican Tossup FL-07 10-24-2016 Lean Republican Tossup VA-10 10-24-2016 Lean Republican Tossup UT-04 10-24-2016 Lean Republican Likely Republican CA-21 10-24-2016 Likely Republican Lean Republican AZ-01 10-21-2016 Tossup Lean D NY-03 10-21-2016 Lean D Likely D NY-24 10-21-2016 Tossup Lean R KS-03 10-19-2016 Likely R Lean R CA-36 10-17-2016 Likely D Safe D NJ-05 10-07-2016 Lean R Tossup NY-03 10-07-2016 Tossup Lean D CA-49 10-07-2016 Likely R Lean R CA-25 10-07-2016 Likely R Lean R CA-10 10-07-2016 Likely R Lean R IA-03 09-30-2016 Tossup Lean R IN-02 09-30-2016 Safe R Likely R MD-08 09-30-2016 Safe D Likely D WI-08 09-30-2016 Tossup Lean R AZ-02 09-23-2016 Lean R Likely R FL-07 09-23-2016 Likely R Lean R NY-19 09-23-2016 Lean R Tossup MN-08 09-16-2016 Lean D Tossup IA-01 09-13-2016 Lean D Tossup CO-06 08-19-2016 Lean R Tossup KS-03 08-19-2016 Safe R Likely R WA-07 08-19-2016 --- Lean Jayapal MI-01 08-05-2016 Lean R Tossup WI-08 07-25-2016 Lean R Tossup VA-05 07-25-2016 Safe R Likely R PA-16 07-25-2016 Safe R Likely R PA-06 07-25-2016 Likely R Safe R MI-06 07-25-2016 Safe R Likely R CA-52 07-25-2016 Lean D Likely D IN-09 07-25-2016 Safe R Likely R NH-02 07-25-2016 Likely D Safe D MI-08 07-25-2016 Safe R Likely R FL-07 07-01-2016 Safe R Likely R CA-46 06-22-2016 --- Likely Correa CO-03 06-21-2016 Likely R Lean R IA-03 06-21-2016 Lean R Tossup NV-04 06-21-2016 Tossup Lean D NY-18 06-17-2016 Likely D Safe D NY-25 06-17-2016 Likely D Safe D FL-13 06-17-2016 Likely D Lean D NV-03 06-15-2016 Lean R Tossup CA-49 06-13-2016 Safe R Likely R CA-17 06-13-2016 --- Lean Khanna CA-44 06-13-2016 --- Lean Hall CA-16 06-10-2016 Likely D Safe D CA-31 06-10-2016 Likely D Safe D IA-01 06-10-2016 Tossup Lean D AZ-09 06-02-2016 Likely D Safe D MN-07 06-01-2016 Likely D Safe D MI-08 05-25-2016 Likely R Safe R WV-02 05-11-2016 Likely R Safe R VA-10 05-04-2016 Likely R Lean R PA-07 04-27-2016 Likely R Safe R IL-12 04-19-2016 Safe R Likely R MN-03 04-18-2016 Safe R Lean R CO-03 04-08-2016 Safe R Likely R VA-02 04-06-2016 Likely R Safe R

All seats not listed above are "Safe" for the party that currently holds him, except for the Republican-held seats inand, which are both rated Safe Democratic, and the Democratic-held seat in, which is rated Safe Republican.

Tossup: Both (or all) parties have a strong, though not necessarily perfectly equal, chance of winning. Some Tossups may be shown with their backgrounds shaded blue or red, meaning they "tilt" toward the indicated party (i.e., that party has a slight advantage). In races featuring two candidates of the same party, this category is called "No Favorite."

Lean: One party has an identifiable advantage, but an upset victory is possible for the other party.

Likely: One party has a strong advantage and is likely to win, though the race has the potential to become more competitive.

Safe: Barring unforeseeable developments, one party is certain to win.

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[1] Url: https://web.archive.org/web/20170728191150/https://www.dailykos.com/pages/election-outlook/2016-race-ratings

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