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As Pennsylvania governor’s race kicks into high gear, Doug Mastriano is dark on TV [1]
['Marc Levy']
Date: 2022-09
FILE - Doug Mastriano, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Pennsylvania, speaks at an event at the state Capitol in Harrisburg, Pa., July 1, 2022. In one of the nation’s most important swing states, Pennsylvania Republicans nominated Mastriano as their nominee for governor, even after learning about his leading role in Donald Trump’s push to overturn the 2020 election. (AP Photo/Marc Levy, File) AP
Doug Mastriano has spent much of the summer ignoring mainstream press, setting a new unorthodox precedent for a major gubernatorial campaign.
Now the Republican nominee in Pennsylvania is entering the homestretch of the race without another staple resource: Television ads.
Mastriano has not aired a single commercial since May 16, the day before the primary. And according to advertising tracking firms, to date, he’s reserved no air time for the final 60 days of the general election, when TV wars between candidates traditionally reach their peak.
Josh Shapiro, his Democratic opponent, has allocated nearly $29 million to broadcast and cable advertising between April and November, a number only expected to grow as the well-resourced attorney general builds his messaging campaign as necessary.
Shapiro is already slated to spend $4.4 million in September, more than $5 million in October and $1.5 million in the final week run-up to November 8, per AdImpact, a firm that tallies advertising.
Mastriano’s campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment on the gaping advertising disparity.
“There’s been no indication he’s raised enough money, especially in southeastern Pennsylvania, where it’s expensive to run television,” said Jim Schultz, a Philadelphia attorney who served as general counsel to former GOP Gov. Tom Corbett and has endorsed Shapiro. “I think the lack of support for Mastriano is unprecedented and warranted.”
Shapiro unveiled three new television ads this week. One spot highlights Mastriano’s opposition to abortion and gay marriage, arguing that those positions will push Pennsylvania businesses out of the state. Another mentions Mastriano’s wish to overturn election outcomes he deems as fraudulent and contrasts that with Shapiro’s agenda of a gas rebate and offering more vocational training.
The third Shapiro commercial, airing in the Pittsburgh and Erie markets, features a cancer survivor praising the attorney general for mediating a dispute between health insurance companies.
“Each passing day, voters are learning more about how Josh will bring people together to deliver real results as governor,” said Shapiro spokesman Manuel Bonder.
Even during his successful primary run in the spring, Mastriano spent a paltry amount on advertising. The state senator and retired military officer doled out just $330,000 for cable TV ads and $123,000 on radio. Nonetheless, he cruised to a 24-point victory.
But Mastriano’s financial hardships could prove consequential in a general election where he needs to reach a broader swath of voters outside his conservative base aligned with former President Donald Trump. Pennsylvania’s 67 counties are mostly covered by six local TV markets. Another half dozen counties consume their television from out-of-state markets as far away as Buffalo, New York City and Washington, D.C.
On Tuesday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis pushed out a fundraising appeal for Mastriano, flagging Shapiro’s financial advantage in the homestretch.
While there’s no indication the Republican Governors Association is planning to assist Mastriano as an outside spender on his behalf, analysts say it would be almost impossible for the Republican to near parity with Democratic spending even if it did.
“As far as precedent goes, I can’t think of anything that comes close to this situation – a major party candidate in a tight race with literally $0 of candidate TV spend to show in the general, even post Labor Day,” said Chris Sebastian, a senior data analyst with Kantar, a consulting company that also tracks advertising. “To be blunt, I can’t really imagine a world in which Mastriano’s campaign catches up, so to speak.”
Juanita Byler, chair of the Mifflin County GOP, said Mastriano’s barebones strategy could still prove successful due to his on-the-ground connections with people.
“I think Doug has a really good chance. He’s grassroots so he’s doing it a little bit different than what we’re used to. He’s really good at listening to the people,” said Byler. “You get down to the grassroots, you get down to where people are … you get respect that way. You don’t get it through TV ads, you don’t get it through social media.”
There’s a discrepancy among political operatives about exactly how close the Shapiro-Mastriano race is.
An Emerson College survey in late August found Shapiro with a narrow 3-point advantage, but one Republican operative familiar with private data said he’s seen evidence of the Democrat ahead by as many as a dozen points.
Mastriano continues to campaign without allowing questions from even local media; the Shapiro campaign has characterized the perpetual evasion as the “No Comment Express.”
On Friday, Mastriano is scheduled to make a campaign stop at a winery in Somerset.
And he originally appeared on a flier as an attendee of an “election integrity” conference being held in West Palm Beach, Florida on Saturday.
But on Thursday, Mastriano’s picture was wiped from the website of the American Citizens & Candidates Forum for Election Integrity.
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