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2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania [1]
[]
Date: 2022-09
The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 8, 2022, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. It will be held concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. senators, elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, and a gubernatorial election. Republican surgeon Mehmet Oz and Democratic lieutenant governor John Fetterman will seek the Senate seat.
The election is expected to be competitive and important to determine party control of the Senate in 2023 due to incumbent Republican senator Pat Toomey not seeking re-election after two terms.[1][2] As the election is for an open Republican-held seat in a state won by Democratic president Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, it is seen by many Democrats as the best possible Senate pick-up in 2022.[3][4]
In the May 17 primary, Fetterman won the Democratic nomination with 59% of the vote.[5] Oz finished with a 0.1% difference between him and David McCormick in the Republican primary, triggering an automatic recount. McCormick conceded the nomination on June 3,[6] making Oz the first Muslim candidate to be nominated by either major party for U.S. Senate.[7]
Republican primary [ edit ]
Campaign [ edit ]
In October 2020, incumbent Republican senator Pat Toomey announced that he would not run for re-election, stating that he wished to return to the private sector.[8]
By October 2021, businessman Jeff Bartos, who had posted strong fund-raising totals, and veteran Sean Parnell, who had the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, emerged as the race's front-runners.[9] Parnell's campaign was rocked in November 2021, after Parnell's ex-wife, Laurie Snell, testified in court during a custody hearing for the couple's children that Parnell strangled and spit on her, abused their children, and told her to "go get an abortion."[10] Even prior to these allegations doubts had arisen among Republicans regarding Parnell's fundraising ability, and it became widely assumed that he would suspend his campaign if he did not win custody of his children.[11] On November 22, 2021, Snell was given custody of the children and Parnell subsequently announced that he was suspending his campaign.[12]
On November 30, with Parnell out of the race, Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor and television personality, announced his candidacy.[13] Oz's campaign entered an immediate controversy over whether Oz himself was a resident of Pennsylvania, as he had lived in Cliffside Park, New Jersey, for most of his life and had only registered to vote in Pennsylvania in October 2020.[13][14] The January 2022 entrance of David McCormick prompted attacks for McCormick's past detraction of Trump and criticism of "America First" economic policies from Oz allies.[15] Super PACs allied to McCormick hit back with a spate of highly funded television advertisements, accusing Oz of being a "Hollywood liberal."[16]
Republican straw polls in January 2022 indicated strong support for Bartos and political commentator Kathy Barnette among party activists as the campaign started to escalate. Bartos won the Republican State Committee Central Caucus's straw poll, placing first with 49 votes, while Barnette finished in second place with 30 votes. McCormick and Sands trailed at third and fourth place; and Oz and former Boxing Commissioner George Bochetto performed poorly, each receiving only one vote.[17][18]
The McCormick campaign targeted Oz's ties to Turkey and called on him to renounce his Turkish citizenship, accusing the candidate of harboring dual loyalties.[19] Oz later stated that if he were elected to the Senate, he would renounce his Turkish citizenship.[20] Former President Trump endorsed Oz on April 10, citing the popularity of his television show and perceived appeal to female voters.[21]
Oz had been ahead of the other candidates in the polls since the start of his campaign, with McCormick soon rising quickly in the polls to challenge Oz in the low 20s. Barnette had also begun to rise in the polls at this point after a string of attention-getting debate performances and an ad spend in support of her by the Club for Growth, and her late surge prompted a change in tactics from the two frontrunners, who had largely ignored her as irrelevant until then.[22] Pro-Oz Super PAC American Leadership Action launched an ad campaign accusing Barnette of supporting Black Lives Matter, while McCormick stated that Barnette was unelectable, citing her heavy loss in a U.S. House race the previous election cycle.[22] Oz himself also accused Barnette of Islamophobia, pointing to a 2015 tweet in which she stated, "Pedophilia is a Cornerstone of Islam."[23]
Nominees [ edit ]
Eliminated in primary [ edit ]
Disqualified [ edit ]
Withdrew [ edit ]
Declined [ edit ]
Debates and forums [ edit ]
2022 Pennsylvania Senate election Republican primary debates No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants Key:
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn Kathy Barnette George Bochetto Jeff Bartos Sean Gale David McCormick Mehmet Oz Carla Sands Everett Stern 1 Feb. 22, 2022 BroadandLiberty.com
Pennsylvania Chamber of Business & Industry Becky Corbin Video P P P N A A A P 2 Apr. 25, 2022 ABC27 Dennis Owens
Lisa Sylvester Video P N P N P P P W 3 May 4, 2022 Newsmax TV Greta Van Susteren
Rick Dayton P N P N P P P W
Endorsements [ edit ]
Robert Jeffries Individuals Roger Stone, political consultant and lobbyist[77]
Polling [ edit ]
Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation Dates
administered Dates
updated Kathy
Barnette Jeff
Bartos David
McCormick Mehmet
Oz Carla
Sands Other[a] Margin Real Clear Politics May 3–16, 2022 May 17, 2022 24.2% 5.4% 19.6% 26.8% 6.0% 18.0% Oz +2.6
Hypothetical polling Poll source Date(s)
administered Sample
size[b] Margin
of error David
McCormick Mehmet
Oz Undecided TargetPoint Consulting (R) February 25–28, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 56% 26% 18%
Results [ edit ]
Following the first night of results, it became clear that Oz and McCormick were the top two vote-getters in the election; however, the margin between them was too close to declare a victor.[102] A mandatory recount then began.[103][102] Former President Trump encouraged Oz to declare victory on election night, stating that Oz would only be defeated as a result of election fraud; these claims were noted by Politico as echoing Trump's baseless claims of election fraud in the 2020 presidential election.[104] With McCormick having done better with mail-in ballots, Oz opposed counting ballots which were received by election offices before election day but were missing dates on the envelopes.[105] A state court later required counties to count undated ballots as valid.[106]
On June 3, McCormick conceded to Oz, saying he could not make up the deficit in the recount.[107]
Oz 20–30%
30–40%
40–50% McCormick 20–30%
30–40%
40–50% Barnette 30–40% Results by county:
Republican primary results[103] Party Candidate Votes % Total votes 1,346,091 100.0%
Democratic primary [ edit ]
Campaign [ edit ]
The first two major Democratic candidates to announce were Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania John Fetterman and state representative Malcolm Kenyatta.[108] Both Fetterman and Kenyatta were considered to be staunchly progressive Democrats, but the two men were felt to appeal to different demographics.[108] By July 2021, Fetterman was considered the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, as a result of his high name recognition and strong fundraising.[109] U.S. Representative Conor Lamb, a moderate member of the party establishment, entered the race on August 6, 2021.[110][111]
As the campaign progressed, Lamb and Fetterman became the two most prominent candidates, with Kenyatta and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh also receiving media attention. Fetterman had maintained his frontrunner status as of December, and the other three contenders were viewed as mainly competing with each other in order to claim the anti-Fetterman mantle.[112] On February 4, 2022, Arkoosh withdrew from the race, her campaign having previously suffered from poor poll results and low support from party activists, leaving Kenyatta as the only major candidate from the Philadelphia region.[113] Both Kenyatta and Lamb were considered to have a good chance at picking up voters who had previously supported Arkoosh, Lamb for ideological reasons and Kenyatta for geographical ones.[113]
In addition to Fetterman, Kenyatta, and Lamb, two minor candidates also made the Democratic primary ballot, namely Kevin Baumlin, a hospital physician, and Alexandra Khalil, a municipal official. Baumlin withdrew from the race on March 31, leaving only Khalil in addition to the three major candidates.[114]
Nominee [ edit ]
Eliminated in primary [ edit ]
Disqualified [ edit ]
Kael Dougherty, data operations associate [121]
Larry Johnson, attorney [122]
Alan Shank, retail worker [123]
Walter Sluzynsky, postal worker [124]
Lew Tapera, retail worker[125]
Withdrew [ edit ]
Declined [ edit ]
Debates [ edit ]
2022 Pennsylvania Senate election Democratic primary debates No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants Key:
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn John Fetterman Malcolm Kenyatta Conor Lamb 1 Apr. 3, 2022 Muhlenberg College Becky Corbin
Jenny DeHuff
Ari Mittleman Video A[x] P P 2 Apr. 21, 2022 ABC27 Dennis Owens
Lisa Sylvester Video P P P
Endorsements [ edit ]
Polling [ edit ]
Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation Dates
administered Dates
updated John
Fetterman Malcolm
Kenyatta Conor
Lamb Other
[z] Margin Real Clear Politics March 26 – May 1, 2022 May 5, 2022 43.0% 6.0% 12.0% 39.0% Fetterman +31.0
Results [ edit ]
Fetterman won the Democratic primary by a landslide, winning all 67 counties in Pennsylvania, with Lamb in second place. Lamb's loss was attributed by Vanity Fair to numerous reasons, such as his not being known to voters in Eastern Pennsylvania, where the director of a progressive Democratic organization said the majority of Democratic voters were located, and the far more contested Republican primary taking media attention that Lamb might have used to gain recognition.[188] Fetterman was also widely considered to have run an effective populist campaign, with The Atlantic noting that his campaign focused on the issues of "workers, wages and weed".[189]
Fetterman 30–40%
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90% Results by county
Democratic primary results[103] Party Candidate Votes % Total votes 1,284,908 100.0%
Libertarian convention [ edit ]
The Libertarian Party nominee qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[190][191]
Nominee [ edit ]
Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, small business owner, and candidate for president in 2020[192][193]
Withdrew [ edit ]
Green convention [ edit ]
The Green Party nominee qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.[190][191]
Nominee [ edit ]
Independents and other parties [ edit ]
Qualified for ballot [ edit ]
Dan Wassmer (Keystone nominee), lawyer and Libertarian nominee for attorney general in 2020[190][191]
Declared write-in [ edit ]
General election [ edit ]
Campaign [ edit ]
Fetterman's campaign has framed Oz as a wealthy outsider who lived outside of Pennsylvania before 2020, including by airing ads that note his past residency in New Jersey. Fetterman has also flown banners and published social media posts described by The Hill and The Washington Post as "trolling" his opponent. In one post, Fetterman started a petition to get Oz inducted to the New Jersey Hall of Fame.[206] In response to the carpetbagging criticisms, Oz said during the primary debate that Pennsylvanians "care much more about what I stand for than where I'm from".[207]
Oz's campaign has criticized Fetterman for being inactive since he suffered a stroke in May and has made an issue of Fetterman's health.[208][209][210] In September, Oz published Fetterman's medical records, which prompted Fetterman to state he was medically cleared to serve in the Senate.[211][212][213] Oz's campaign has also framed Fetterman as a socialist, highlighting his endorsement of Bernie Sanders in 2016. Fetterman countered that he has differences in policy proposals with Sanders in issues such as fracking.[214][215]
Fetterman's refusal to debate Oz has been criticized by Oz's campaign.[216][217] Fetterman's team has not cited a reason for not debating, but criticized debate concessions from Oz's team for allegedly mocking Fetterman's stroke recovery.[218] In September, Fetterman said he agreed to debate Oz; the first debate is scheduled for October 25.[219]
"Crudités" video [ edit ]
On August 15, 2022, an April 2022 campaign video of Oz shopping in a Redner's Warehouse supermarket went viral.[220] In the video, Oz says he is shopping for produce to make crudités and attributes the allegedly high prices to Democratic president Joe Biden. The video was widely ridiculed on social media and was the subject of several news articles. Most observers focused on Oz's usage of the French term "crudités", his choice of items, and several factual errors.[221][222]
When asked by Newsmax about the video, Oz said it demonstrated his desire to help others, which he had done throughout his career.[223]
Predictions [ edit ]
Debates [ edit ]
2022 Pennsylvania Senate race general election debates No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants Key:
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn Mehmet Oz John Fetterman 1 Oct. 25, 2022 Nexstar Media Group TBA I[af] I[ag]
Endorsements [ edit ]
Polling [ edit ]
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation Dates
administered Dates
updated Mehmet
Oz (R) John
Fetterman (D) Other
[ah] Margin Real Clear Politics August 20 – September 26, 2022 September 26, 2022 44.5% 48.5% 7.0% Fetterman +4.0% FiveThirtyEight December 3, 2021 – September 26, 2022 September 26, 2022 42.4% 49.4% 8.2% Fetterman +7.0% Average 43.5% 49.0% 7.5% Fetterman +5.5%
Graphical summary
Results [ edit ]
2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania Party Candidate Votes % Total votes N/A
Notes [ edit ]
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined. a b c d e f g h Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear ^ Bochetto and Gale with 2% ^ Bochetto with 1%, Gale with 0% ^ Bochetto, Gale, and "Other" with 1% ^ Bochetto with 1% ^ Bochetto and Gale with 1% ^ Bochetto and Gale with 1% ^ Gale with 2%, Bochetto and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1% ^ "Someone else" with 5%, Gale with 1%, Bochetto with 0% ^ Bochetto with 3%, Gale with 1% ^ "Someone else" with 6%, Bochetto with 2%, Gale with 0% ^ Bochetto and Gale with ≤1% ^ Bochetto with 4%, Gale with 3% a b c d Bochetto with 1% ^ Bochetto with 2%, Gale with 1% ^ Bochetto, Stern, and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1% ^ Bochetto, Gale, and Stern with 2% ^ "Another Candidate" with 11%, Gale with 1% ^ Gale with 4%; Jeffries with 2%; Xu with 1%; Stern with 0% ^ Gale with 2% ^ "Someone else" with 3%, Gale with 0% ^ "Someone else" with 7%, Gale with 3% ^ Fetterman was invited to the debate, but declined to attend ^ Conor Lamb received the most delegate votes of 169, but failed to reach the self-imposed threshold of a two-thirds majority vote, meaning that no candidate received the endorsement of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; Baumlin and Khalil with 1% ^ "Someone else" with 9%; Baumlin and Khalil with 0% ^ Khalil with 4% ^ Baumlin with 9%; Khalil with 3% ^ Houlahan with 8% ^ Oz was invited to the debate and plans to attend ^ Fetterman was invited to the debate and plans to attend ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined. ^ Stern (I) with 3%, "other" with 1%, and 3% "wouldn't vote," ^ Stern (I) with 2%, "other" with 1% ^ Gerhardt (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 4% ^ "Another party's candidate" with <1% ^ "Neither/Other" with 5% ^ Gerhardt (L) and "Other" with 4% ^ "Someone else" with 3% ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%; Gerhardt (L) with 3%; Wassmer (K) and Weiss (G) with 1% ^ Gerhardt (L) and "Other" with 2% ^ Stern (I) with 3%; "other" (volunteered response) with 2% ^ Gerhardt (L), Magee (I, W/I), Stern (I), and Weiss (G) with 1%; Johnson (C) and "someone else" with <1%
Partisan clients
a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by Honor Pennsylvania PAC, which supports McCormick. ^ Poll sponsored by Oz's campaign. ^ Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign. ^ Poll sponsored by Parnell's campaign. a b c d e f g h i Poll sponsored by Fetterman's campaign. ^ Poll sponsored by pro-Lamb super PAC Penn Progress. ^ Poll sponsored by Kenyatta's campaign. a b This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Oz ^ This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC ^ This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project ^ This poll was sponsored by EDF Action and NRDC Action Fund a b Poll sponsored by Collective PAC.
References [ edit ]
2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania at Ballotpedia
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