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Global Warming - and just to make it interesting, we’ll have a volcanic eruption on the side (1). [1]

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Date: 2022-08-30

The giant ash cloud that erupted from Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai, taken by the Japanese satellite Himawari-8.Credit: EyePress News/Shutterstock

It is scientifically accepted that the anthropogenic increase in CO 2 in the atmosphere is disrupting the Earth’s climate. However, on shorter timescales, large volcanic eruptions can modify the weather for a year or so. Famously, the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo injected large amounts of SO 2 /sulfate into the atmosphere with subsequent cooling on a global scale (2)

On January 15 this year, the Hunga Tonga submarine volcano in the South Pacific underwent a catastrophic eruption (3). Its shockwaves travelled around the planet several times. Because the eruption was so large and under water, it injected significant quantities of water vapor directly into the stratosphere. The accumulating data indicate that this water vapor is responsible for a significant cooling of the stratosphere in the Southern Hemisphere.

In an article published today by Andrej Flis in Severe Weather Europe (4), he details these data and speculates about any potential effects of this cooling on the upcoming winter in the Northern Hemisphere. To quote from his summary:

“The January eruption of Hunga Tonga in the South Pacific has injected a large amount of water vapor into the stratosphere. That water vapor is now causing significant cooling of the southern stratosphere.

We looked at the historical data and found that there is a weak indication of the south stratospheric cooling, coinciding with later stratospheric warming events over the northern hemisphere. However, much more research is needed, as other background signals can be at play.

Stratospheric warming during the northern hemisphere winter can mean a heavy disruption of circulation. This causes pressure changes and can unleash cold air from the Arctic into the United States and Europe.

It would make sense for the changes in the stratosphere on the southern side of the planet could also impact the northern hemisphere. As the cooling in the southern hemisphere is substantial, the upcoming winter will be a great real-life “lab test” of the potential global weather changes.”

The article by Flis is very readable, puts things in context and steps through the data. By “heavy disruption of the circulation,” he means a breakdown of the polar vortex, with large masses of cold air whipping down the US. I seem to remember frozen swimming pools in Houston and an ignoble Senator flying south for the winter.

1. With apologies to the late, great Benny Hill. See at 2:15: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8e1xvyTdBZI

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_eruption_of_Mount_Pinatubo

3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hunga_Tonga%E2%80%93Hunga_Ha%27apai_eruption_and_tsunami

4. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

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