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Weekly DataDump from Senate Swing 2022 Canvassing in AZ, FL, GA, NV, NC, OH, PA & WI [1]
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Date: 2022-08-27
The Four Smiling Ladies. They Get Around!
Since March 5, Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors (as weather and primaries permitted) in Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin — all critical states that will determine the Senate majority for the next two years. And nothing is more important this election than maintaining a Democratic Senate and even expanding upon it.
3,440 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday. As you can see, we are seeing the effects of Labor Day approaching, organizers moving to regular campaign jobs and schools starting up again. Regardless, our volunteers knocked on 251,964 doors, and had conversations with 18,884 voters. Some of our volunteers have really taken to heart the numerical goals we originally set out. We have now surpassed our original 2 Million Doors Knocked by Labor Day goal and are shooting for a new 3 million doors knocked goal by Labor Day. Even if we don’t get there our volunteers are now invested in “the game:” doors knocked, conversations, predicting whether there is anyone home (and whether they should even pause in response to a knock or doorbell) before they knock, because they see how it makes them to be more productive. And they really like these goals. This is even true in Georgia (which has been producing a phenomenal number of volunteers in areas we were told would never knock on doors), where both organizers and my own observations suggest that they are taking more time at the doors.
Voter Conversations (Opened Doors) ea week
I was reminded by someone who reads these posts that my number one piece of advise (something all our organizers are supposed to start with) is, Smile! When I lead trainings, I tell them to “Smile, because no one you talk to today will remember a single thing you say. But they will always remember the impression you left.” Some people have told me that this takes the pressure off, because they think they have to memorize the script. We don’t have a script, although most campaigns do. But I like to end that segment of training with this thought: it may be the only smile they see today. And isn’t that just sad. Other Leads, of course, train volunteers differently.
We walk with an Issues Canvass, where we ask voters what they think and whether they had a message for their elected officials. 11,493 voters answered questions from the survey, in whole or in part. This was about 600 responses fewer than last week (8/13) even though we had almost 100 more volunteers knocking on doors. Like our Palm Sunday Saturday canvass (say that 3 times fast), you can see the effects of (in this case) schools starting and Summer (unofficially) ending for families.
By far, the highest response numbers always are in the second question, about what issue voters think “is most urgent” at this time. The “send a message to your Member” is very popular, as well. But we are getting a lot of responses to the “Is there a single issue that will determine how you vote” question, too — far higher than I expected.
The ‘what is their opinion of the job Biden is doing’ question also receives a lot of responses. 6,702 voters (58.3%) told us that they have a favorable opinion of the job Biden was doing as president. 3,874 voters (33.7%) didn’t express an opinion of the president at this time. 827 voters (7.1%) said they had a negative impression of the job the president was doing last Saturday. Remember that we are knocking on doors of Democrats and Independent or Non-Affiliated households. While it is not impossible to reach a Republican through our targeting of these households, we exclude GOP households by and large.
It seemed to me that Biden’s job approval numbers were starting to move up in these Senate Swing States (which, conventionally, would be a good sign), so I graphed them out. And it showed a slight improvement, but the real movement was the decrease in the Job Disapproval number. The fact that people aren’t committing increased as well. The first post-pandemic election is proving to be interesting.
But Biden isn’t on the ballot (this year). But there’s considerable evidence that presidential job approval influences electoral outcomes, especially in senate elections. At least, in the past. And this is one of the basis for asking voters the presidential job approval question. But there’s more! As I’ve noted repeatedly, what Hope Springs from Field has been doing is replicating the First Round of a traditional Five Round canvass. When you look at the graphic above from this perspective, the yellowish line represents voters who be classified as 4s (likely to vote against a Democratic candidate) and the red line could be classified as 3s (undecideds) while the blue line would be classified as 2s (likely to support the Democratic candidate). So not only have we been removing bad addresses in VAN, we have been identifying households among independent or unaffiliated voters where it is risky to send volunteers (as well as Democrats and independent households likely to support them). And for senate races, which have more resources and much more likely to do this, we are leaving real world results, from voters that will allow for more accurate modeling of the electorate. Instead of trying to model from the results of a thousand poll responses, they can model (or test their model) based upon tens of thousands of voter surveys. This is no small thing.
While we are not tracking the “what single issue will you vote on” responses, these are entered into VAN (the Democratic database — which happens to be our biggest expense each month), just like all this data. But it is (probably) the most important piece of information for Democratic candidates who access VAN in the Fall. In more than one Senate Swing State, though, the top response to the single issue driving voting decisions question have been Reproductive Freedom.
Top Issues found at the doors
The Economy was the Top Issue this week, according to the voters we talked to last Saturday. Concerns over Jobs (prospect of Recession) was the top response in Nevada, Inflation was the top concern in Arizona and Schools was Number 1 in Georgia this week.
The Economy was the Number 2 Issue in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Schools was Second in North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania; Jobs was Number 2 in Florida and Wisconsin. The Number Three Issues were Typical again this week.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First Round of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of the communities most effected (the intended targets or victims) of these new voter suppression laws.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that repeated face to face interactions are critical. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors — and we didn’t register new voters (while Republicans dud). We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be cured.
We ask voters who talk to us whether they approve or disapprove of the job the president, their incumbent Senator (up for election this year), and how their governor (if they are up for election this year) is doing. After the primaries, we also ask about the Democratic Senate and nominees.
Florida (top) & Arizona graphs
In Florida, 57% of the voters we talked to who responded had a favorable impression of President Biden while 15% had a favorable impression of Senator Rubio. 4% had a favorable impression of Governor DeSantis last week. Remember that we are only knocking on doors of households with Democratic and Independent voters in Central Florida; we don’t include households that only have Republicans in them. 35% of Florida voters we talked to disapproved of the job Rubio has done in the Senate and 49% disapproved the job by DeSantis in Central Florida.
In Arizona, 58% of the voters we talked to responded they had a favorable impression of President Biden and 78% had a favorable impression of Senator Kelly. 11% of them had a favorable impression of their retiring Governor Doug Ducey while 44% had an unfavorable view.
Georgia (top) & North Carolina graphs
In Georgia, 63% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 80% approved of the job Senator Warnock was doing. Only 14% approved of the job Governor Kemp was doing. 67% of the voters we talked to last week had a favorable impression of Stacey Abrams. Again, we are talking to households identified in the VAN model as Democratic and Independent voters (Georgia doesn’t have party registration). We do our best to eliminate Republican households although we do get mixed addresses, where someone is a Democrat (usually a female or younger voter) and someone is a Republican (usually male).
In North Carolina, 57% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 55% of the voters we talked to approved of the job Governor Cooper was doing. Since the Democratic nominee for Senate is now official, we also asked about Cheri Beasley, the former Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court. 77% of the people we talked to had a favorable impression of Justice Beasley.
Nevada (top) & Pennsylvania graphs
In Nevada, 57% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 53% had a favorable impression of the job Senator Cortez Masto was doing. 56% of voters approved of the job Governor Sisolak was doing. 7% of the Nevada voters we talked to had a negative impression of President Biden (the week’s high), 8% had a negative view of the senator and 7% had a negative view of the governor.
In Pennsylvania, 61% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 75% had a favorable opinion of John Fetterman, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate. People are eager to see him back on the campaign trail. 75% had a favorable view of Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania governor. But Fetterman has really recovered, in more ways than one!
Wisconsin (top) & Ohio graphs
In Wisconsin, 58% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing, 7% disapproved. 2% approved of the job Senator Johnson this week while 53% of the voters we talked to disapproved of their senator. As you can see, the approval numbers for Johnson have been remarkably consistent. In fact, his numbers have been the most consistent of any candidate we have asked about. 66% of voters we talked to approved of the job Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes was doing. 56% approved of the job that Governor Evers was doing; 7% disapproved.
In Ohio, 57% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 8% disapproved. 80% approved of the job Tim Ryan was doing. 24% approved of the job that Governor DeWine was doing. 25% of the Democratic and Independent voters we talked to last Saturday disapproved of the job DeWine was doing. I find it interested that the approval numbers for Ryan and DeWine appear (reversely) synced.
Biden Approval Ratings learned at the door of Democrats & Indy Voters
The trend lines are clearly starting to converge again for President Biden’s approval ratings in the 8 different states. 6 percentage points now separate Biden’s approval ratings in Georgia, 63% (week’s high), and several states at 57% (week’s low). Remember that we don’t knock on doors of Republican households even though there are definitely doors of mixed party households we canvass. But we are getting interesting feedback from voters who seem inclined to support the president. “He’s got to deliver,” said one voter in Wisconsin recently — a sentiment shared by others in not so different language.
2022 Sen Candidates Approval Ratings at the door of Dem & Indy Voters
We can also compare the Job Approval ratings from Democratic and Independent or Unaffiliated Voters over time. There is less data here since we only added non-incumbent Senate candidates after their primary victories. Here again we will note that Nevada is particularly disconcerting, primarily because Senator Cortez Masto seems to have lower name recognition than the other senate incumbents. But among the Democratic incumbents, it seems that Nevada will be the closest race. Georgia, because we are talking about more Republicans (who are not part of this data), is notable because Rev. Warnock has very strong support among the voters we have talked to this year in southern and Southeast Georgia.
116 people filled out new voter registration forms for their states during last weekend’s canvassing. Another 531 voters updated their address, as required by HAVA. We differentiate between the two because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they are also getting robocalls thanking them for registering. Compare this graphic with the first one (above). You can see that the number of voters registered is not a function of the number of volunteers present or doors knocked. Clearly, they help, but there’s no guarantee that more doors equals more voters registered. Even though registering voters is a primary rationale behind early canvassing, it is not the only one. Just wanted to point that out.
We collected 934 Constituent Service Request Forms last week. In general, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the CSR and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We continue to walk with Incident Reports, and we ask people who say they are concerned about the upcoming general election if they want to fill one out. Last Saturday, 51 voters filled them out.
We pass along Incident Reports to the Lawyer’s Committee for Civil Rights and NALEO (those that correspond to Hispanic precincts), and send copies to state Democratic Party committees. But our purpose is to combine this information with the two independent databases of voting incidents to look for patterns before the election and use that information for warning district, state and U.S. attorneys’ offices that we could see those patterns resurface on election day. We will also use it to target Election Day Protection activity.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions in some states, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.
I am aware of the volume of data presented in this post. But it is the result of the data we collect at the door, to be entered in VAN and accessible by all Democratic candidates who utilize VAN this Fall. The focus on the “horse-race” aspect of this data is unintentional, because the data is what the it is. It is useful for Democratic candidates and provides paths to victory for data-driven candidates (which most campaigns are these days).
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!
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