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Et tu Krugman? [1]

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Date: 2022-08-26

The beatings will continue until morale improves we bring on a recession.

On the other hand:

Today, Fed Chair Powell said the Fed would keep rates high:

While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses.

And Paul Krugman tweeted this:

x Scary news: I don't disagree with anything in Powell's speech https://t.co/A74Js3gnn6 — Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) August 26, 2022

But Zachary Carter, author of the great Keynes Biography, The Price of Peace, says this:

x decent chance we see great numbers in August and rising layoffs in September / October, just in time for the midterms — Zachary D. Carter (@zachdcarter) August 26, 2022

Krugman is a liberal hero, but he’s just wrong here. My story quoted at the top cites many economists who believe hikes in interest rates do NOT bring down inflation unless they cause a recession, especially when the recession is supply-driven like the present one. Here’s what TCU economist John T. Harvey says in The Fed’s Interest Rate Hike: Salt In The Wound?

Stop for a second and assume that those pushing this policy don’t have “PhD” after their names. Imagine instead that someone on a street corner is yelling to anyone passing by, “Listen to me, people! Prices are rising and we are all hurting! Demand that your government lower your incomes today!” You’d rush by as quickly as possible, avoiding eye contact and keeping one hand on your wallet. What an idiot: help people afford to put food on the table by depriving them of income? Insanity.

And here’s Professor Robert Hockett of Cornell and Georgetown:

if you make enough people poor by taking away their jobs, they won’t be able to buy goods or services, which will result in lower demand and, eventually, lower prices. But a policy of killing demand by taking jobs from 18 million Americans will leave an awful lot of collateral damage.

I know. Unlike Paul Krugman, I don’t have a Nobel Prize (and neither do the economists I cite. . . yet). But for me, common sense and history favor the views of the latter.

Maybe Ivermectin, rather than Hydroxychloroquine is the better metaphor.



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