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Biden vs. Trump 2022: Net Favorability As Proxy for Generic Ballot Looking Very Promising [1]

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Date: 2022-08-25

That about sums up the last 40 years.

The Generic Ballot is one of the most useful data sources for determining the chances of either party winning in the next election and the degree of success.



The Democratic improvement of odds to hold the House and Senate mapped exactly in line with the improvement in the generic ballot.



Currently it's a dead heat stuck right around 43/44% for both parties but it does seem to be lagging behind the massive shift in political calculus caused by the SC overturning Roe v Wade.



The polling doesn't seem to have been able to fully adapt to this entirely reshaped political landscape. One in which the 2022 electorate that pollsters are guesstimating is increasingly unlikely to be the electorate that actually shows up to vote in November.



We've seen not only Kansas but a wide range of special elections that indicate Democrats are consistently overperforming, where conventional wisdom says they should be, by 6-10 pts. Not to mention the disparity between Women and Men new voter registrations.



This is despite the fact that they should be, and were, underperforming going into this midterm, down a substantial but not terrible 3-4 pts on the Generic Ballot pre-Roe v Wade.



So while the Generic Ballot waffles in this competitive state, where else can we look to more clearly understand where the American electorate currently stands right now?



Net Favorability between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is looking like a fantastic and more accurate real-time proxy and maybe leading indicator.



While Trump is not on the ballot this year, him and Biden are the two most well known politicians in America on either side of the isle.



And thanks to Trump's dependence on controversy to stay relevant, he is far more salient in voters minds than any failed presidential candidate from times past.



Anyone remember McCain's out-sized influence on 2010 or Romney's influence in 2014?



Exactly.



Generic Dems and Generic Republicans are not real political figures that exist anymore in 2022.



Everything is higher stakes now and as we see with the flailing GOP Trump-fluffing candidates trying to win state-wide races, Dems are stepping increasingly into the mainstream politician role while Republicans nose dive into the deep end of conspiratorial outrage and White Christian grievance politics.



The Generic Republican in particular is an extinct species now that Liz Cheney and nearly all the representatives who rightfully voted to impeach Trump are preparing to exit stage left leaving almost exclusively only conspiracy promoting or supporting Trump sycophants on the Republican side of the isle.



So where does that leave the state of our Proxy Generic Ballot?



Biden, while currently neck and neck with Trump at this point in Trump's p*#sidency, is actually sitting at -12.3 Net Approval today while Trump is -15.8 Net Approval today.



Thus using Joe Biden and Donald Trump as more accurate representations of a Generic Dem or Republican would land Democrats at +3.5.



That is a figure more in line with what we're actually seeing since the abortion of Roe v Wade.



This might be considered a more noisy leading indicator of the Generic Ballot and if this Biden/Trump Net Approval disparity holds or continues to grow, the Dem chances of holding the house are gonna likely end up at least a coin flip if not more in Dems favor.



And let's not forget the remaining J6 hearings that could further disintegrate Trump's (and by extension Republican’s) standing, let alone his likely crimes, which will be still be hanging overhead.



The release of the heavily redacted affidavit isn't likely to affect much and it’s clear the FBI doesn’t intend to take further action against Trump before the midterm but now that the Republican Outrage Bomb™ has passed, this ongoing investigation is certainly not going to help Trump any further.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/25/2118830/-Biden-vs-Trump-2022-Net-Favorability-As-Proxy-for-Generic-Ballot-Looking-Very-Promising

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