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Abbreviated pundit roundup: Trumptimism versus hopeium [1]

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Date: 2022-08-20

x 4 other GOP polls were better for Rs but all 4 then found big movement towards Ds.



Rasmussen 39-49 to 43-46 (7 pt shift to the Ds)

American Greatness 42-50 to 44-45 (7 pt shift)

Fox News 39-46 to 41-41 (7 pt shift)

Senate Opportunity Fund 42-47 to 44-45 (4 pt shift)



4/ — Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) August 19, 2022

Axios:

Even Republicans are beginning to acknowledge that their path back to power in the Senate in November's elections is far less clear than in the House, Axios' Andrew Solender reports. Why it matters: The sharp divergence between the GOP's fortunes in the two chambers highlights the role candidate recruitment — and the involvement of former President Trump — has played in this midterm cycle. Driving the news: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) admitted at an event in his home state today that "there's probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate." "Senate races are just different, they're statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome," he said.

Minutes before the Republican leader's comments, news broke that the McConnell-affiliated Senate Leadership Fund is intervening in Ohio with a massive $28 million ad reservation.

$28 million ad reservation. In a state Trump won by 10 points and was thought to be comfortably red, Republican J.D. Vance is running neck and neck with Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio).

Remember the days of Mean Jean Schmidt? This was 2012. She, Michele Bachmann, and Sarah Palin were the forerunners of today’s Republican Party, direct descendents of Newt Gingrich. All are gone, though Palin may be back.

x Starting in PA, where women have accounted for >56% of new registrants in that time period. Those women new registrants are 62%D to 15% R and 54% are under the age of 25. Compare that to men new registrants at 41% <25 and 43% D, 28% R. — Tom Bonier (@tbonier) August 19, 2022

Punchbowl News:

In the last few days, there have been growing signals that the 118th Congress may end up split – a GOP-run House with a Democratic-controlled Senate. This isn’t an outcome that a lot of Senate insiders or political experts had picked heading into this cycle. But it’s looking like a real possibility, if not probability, absent a shift. Let’s put a finer point on that: The Senate is staying Democratic unless GOP candidates in key Senate races start performing dramatically better, raise more money and begin hitting their opponents a lot harder. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who knows a thing or two about elections, said this in Kentucky on Thursday: “I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different – they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.” There’s a lot in this McConnell statement, including an implied dig at former President Donald Trump, who played a key role in endorsing Republican candidates in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. These are the Senate hopefuls who McConnell is referring to when he says “candidate quality.”

So maybe it’s not all hopeium.

x Any Trump motion challenging the search is going to be a perfect opportunity for DOJ to respond with damning facts, which DOJ otherwise would not do (“we speak through court filings”). So bring it on! — Andrew Weissmann (@AWeissmann_) August 20, 2022

AJC:

Stacey Abrams defends Fani Willis’ investigation of Donald Trump Stacey Abrams has quickly moved to capitalize on the revelation that Gov. Brian Kemp is no longer cooperating with investigators and instead seeking to quash the subpoena seeking his testimony. And on CNN Thursday night, she defended the investigation itself. … Kemp’s attorney accused prosecutors of a “politically motivated” investigation and expressed concern about potential leaks of his testimony in emails included in recent court filings. His lawyers want his testimony delayed until after the election or canceled altogether. Shortly after the CNN appearance, Abrams hammered home another angle: That “bowing to Donald Trump scores political points” for Kemp.

x "If Trump would just go away, it might make sense to let him — which is basically what Ford did with Nixon. But Trump won't ... He plans to install himself as dictator. To stop him, we need a better plan than to just let him continue committing crimes." https://t.co/btChL8NChu — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 19, 2022

John Stoehr/The Editorial Board:

Why is the left demanding that Biden cancel student loan debts when Biden is in the process of canceling student loan debts? To cancel or not to cancel is not the question. If those involved in the debate were closely paying attention, rather than continually affirming their priors for the entertainment of TV audiences, they’d know that the question is not if or whether the Biden administration can or should cancel some or all debts – because the administration is in the process of doing just that. The real question is for whom and why. “For whom and why” is why pundits don’t pay attention. While dulling sameness raged on, Biden has become a champion of the poor and vulnerable people, ie, Black women, who have been scammed by for-profit colleges, which is to say scores of hundreds of thousands of people, all just trying to better their lives and fortunes.

x I wrote a big explainer on the major criminal investigations into Donald Trump.https://t.co/6LpV8UYSGT — Ian Millhiser (@imillhiser) August 19, 2022

Marcy Wheeler/emptywheel:

WHICH OF THE MANY INVESTIGATIONS TRUMP HAS OBSTRUCTED IS DOJ INVESTIGATING? As I’ve written in the past, there are several different theories about how DOJ is applying the obstruction statute, 18 USC 1519, in its investigation into Trump’s stolen documents. Three possibilities have been floated: DOJ is investigating Trump for obstructing the investigation it opened in February of Trump’s theft of classified documents by moving documents at Mar-a-Lago around to hide them from DOJ and his own lawyers DOJ is investigating Trump for obstructing prior investigations and current January 6 investigations (both the January 6 Committee and DOJ’s own investigation) by trying to keep incriminating Presidential Records out of the Archives, either by destroying documents or hiding them DOJ is investigating Trump for obstructing the Archives’ ability to fulfill the requirements of the Presidential Records Act The differences are subtle, but important for assessing how significant Trump’s legal exposure on this count might be.

x The reference to “willful retention” in the description of the Espionage Act charge on the warrant’s cover sheet seems to confirm the widespread assumption that the application was based upon a violation of § 793(d), specifically—that Trump was told to return material and didn’t. https://t.co/zufKX1oUno — Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) August 18, 2022

Ben Jacobs/Vox:

The Never Trump wing of the GOP never had a chance Liz Cheney’s loss made clear Trump’s GOP detractors have little electoral sway. Even an ardent Never Trumper like Tim Miller, a former top Republican operative and author of a recent New York Times bestseller, Why We Did It, conceded that Trump won the battle for the soul of the GOP. “A lot of people misunderstand what is happening in this moment and think the Republican Party might somehow go back to being the party of Liz Cheney and Paul Ryan,” Miller said. “It’s never going back — at least not any time on the horizon.” Part of that wing’s irrelevance owes to the fundamental structure of American politics. The only three Republicans who voted to impeach or convict Trump who have advanced to the general election this cycle all ran in states without traditional party primaries. In Alaska, maverick Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski advanced in the state’s unusual primary system, where the top four candidates on a nonpartisan primary ballot advance to a ranked choice general election. Two House members who won their primaries, David Valadao of California and Dan Newhouse of Washington, both did so in states where the top two vote-getters on a nonpartisan primary ballot advance to the general election. But it wasn’t just structural. None of the winning candidates emphasized their opposition to Trump. In fact, they all ran localized races and focused on issues that voters in Republican primaries were concerned about. But it required that combination for anti-Trump Republicans to succeed in a primary.

x @EJ_Burrows is tweeting out a briefing by an anonymous western intelligence official. This tweet and the one after by far the most important imho. If this Russian Army runs short of ammo, it’s in big, big trouble. https://t.co/4PFM8mMZ1W — Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) August 19, 2022

WaPo:

‘It’s a rip-off’: GOP spending under fire as Senate hopefuls seek rescue A cash crunch at campaigns and the NRSC set off a panic as GOP candidates emerged from bruising primaries playing catch-up in polls and advertising In a highly unusual move, the National Republican Senatorial Committee this week canceled bookings worth about $10 million, including in the critical states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona. A spokesman said the NRSC is not abandoning those races but prioritizing ad spots that are shared with campaigns and benefit from discounted rates. Still, the cancellations forfeit cheaper prices that came from booking early, and better budgeting could have covered both. “The fact that they canceled these reservations was a huge problem — you can’t get them back,” said one Senate Republican strategist, who like others spokes on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters. “You can’t win elections if you don’t have money to run ads.” The NRSC’s retreat came after months of touting record fundraising, topping $173 million so far this election cycle, according to Federal Election Commission disclosures. But the committee has burned through nearly all of it, with the NRSC’s cash on hand dwindling to $28.4 million by the end of June.

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