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Ukraine Invasion Day 178: increased strikes on rear areas previously believed to be secure [1]
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Date: 2022-08-19
Apparently the FSB had terrible planning at the beginning of the war which contrasts with the complexity of the situation that confronted Zelensky.
Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transportation infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian confidence in the security of Russian rear areas. Reports from August 18 about Ukrainian strikes are affecting the Russian information space despite the fact that these reports were likely overblown. Available open-source evidence indicates that Ukrainian forces did not conduct a successful kinetic attack against either the Stary Oskol Air Base in Belgorod or Belbek Air Base in Crimea on August 18. Geolocated footage shows that a fire started at a field just south of the Stary Oskol Airfield (rather than at the airfield itself), and satellite imagery shows Russian forces transporting ammunition and military equipment to a forest close to the field.[1] An unspecified Russian Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official reiterated that Russian air defenses near the Kerch Strait Bridge activated against a Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) rather than an incoming strike.[2] There is no visual evidence of damage to either air base of as August 19. Geolocated footage shows no explosions or evidence of kinetic activity near the Belbek Air Base overnight on August 18-19, lending credence to claims that footage reportedly showing the explosion is recycled footage misattributed to the Belbek Air Base.[3] As ISW reported on August 18, Russian sources largely reported on and disseminated these false or exaggerated reports, indicating broader Russian panic.[4]
Russian authorities are visibly increasing security measures in Crimea, indicating growing worry among Russian authorities and civilians about the threat of Ukrainian strikes on rear areas previously believed to be secure. Russian authorities installed checkpoints to search Ukrainian cars and identify saboteurs in Sevastopol.[5] Certain Russian milbloggers made dramatic, pessimistic assessments that Ukrainian forces used strikes on the Kerch Strait Bridge and Belbek Air Base to conduct reconnaissance on Russian air and missile defense readiness and make assessments for new attacks, particularly the feasibility of a large strike.[6] Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications (UA StratCom) reported on August 19 that Russian forces are not in control of the situation in Crimea as evidenced by the blocking of the Kerch Strait Bridge and activation of air alarms in Sevastopol for the first time since the start of the invasion.[7] UA StratCom warned that Ukrainian forces have not yet struck the Kerch Strait Bridge with full capabilities and that prior Ukrainian strikes on the bridge demonstrate that the bridge is not as safe as the Russians previously believed.[8]
The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remained largely unchanged on August 19, despite the Russian Ministry of Defense’s August 18 claims that Ukrainian forces would stage a provocation at the ZNPP on August 19. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled the ZNPP at night on August 18-19 but did not claim that Ukrainian forces launched a large-scale attack on the facility, contrary to Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) statements on August 18.[9] Zaporizhia Oblast Head Oleksandr Starukh emphasized on August 19 that the situation at the ZNPP remains tense but under control.[10]
Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian authorities are likely preparing to hold show trials for Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol around August 24, notably coinciding with Ukraine’s Independence Day.[11] The GUR warned that Russian authorities intend to hold a show trial of captured fighters from the Azovstal Steel Plant in the Mariupol Philharmonic Theatre and may use the theatre to stage a false-flag attack on August 24.[12] Mariupol Mayor Advisor Petro Andryushchenko confirmed that the Mariupol occupation administration canceled rehearsal schedules at the theatre in order to accommodate the show trials, which ISW previously reported on August 11.[13] As ISW previously reported, these show trials will likely be orchestrated in order to create the impression for Russian domestic audiences that Russian occupation authorities are taking necessary steps to secure occupied areas as well as attempt to demoralize Ukrainian troops.[14] Russian authorities are likely orienting the trials around Ukraine’s Independence Day in order to set further information conditions to exert law enforcement control of occupied areas.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces attempted a limited ground assault north of Kharkiv City near Pytomnyk and shelled Kharkiv City and surrounding settlements on August 19.[28] The UK Defense Ministry (UK MoD) reported that, despite a limited Russian force presence on the Kharkiv City Axis, Russian forces have shelled Kharkiv City consistently since the start of the war and conducted small-scale ground attacks to prevent Ukrainian forces from reallocating personnel from this axis to other axes.[29] The UK MoD’s report confirms ISW’s previous assessments of the limited Russian focus on Kharkiv City and spoiling attacks north of the city.[30] Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Staryi Saltiv and remotely mined both Verkhnii Saltiv and Staryi Saltiv northeast of Kharkiv City on the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets River.[31]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x In Kharkiv region, near the Pechenihy Reservoir, the Russian fascist invaders shelled in the vicinity of Chuhuiv and Korobochkyne. They conducted an airstrike near Leb'yazhe.
–General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational information as of 06:00 on 20 August 2022 pic.twitter.com/OwgCX6nc8j — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) August 20, 2022
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest and southeast of Izyum near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border on August 19. Russian troops attempted to break through Ukrainian defensive lines in the area of Karnaukhivka, Dibrovne, Virnopillya, and Nova Dmytrivka—all within 25 km southwest of Izyum.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces also conducted a ground attack near Dolyna, 25 km southeast of Izyum and along the E40 Izyum-Slovyansk highway.[16] Russian troops also shelled the Kramatorsk Technology and Design College.[17]
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks east of Siversk on August 19. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted to advance on Siversk from Ivano-Darivka (10 km southeast of Siversk) and Vyimka (7 km southeast of Siversk).[18] Russian troops shelled Siversk and the surrounding settlements.[19]
Russian forces continued ground assaults to the east and south of Bakhmut on August 19. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted to advance on Soledar (10 km northeast of Bakhmut) from around Stryapivka and Volodymyrivka.[20] Russian troops, including Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) elements, continued to fight in the eastern outskirts of Soledar, likely in order to consolidate control of the nearby section of the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway.[21] Russian troops also continued ground assaults south of Bakhmut around Kodema, Zaitseve, and Klynove, all within 15 km southeast of Bakhmut. The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Territorial Defense claimed that DNR troops in the Horlivka area took control of the northern part of Zaitseve (different from the aforementioned Zaitseve and about 20 km southwest of Bakhmut) and Dacha (15 km south of Bakhmut).[22] ISW cannot independently confirm the status of control of these two settlements, but Russian forces in the Horlivka area are likely continuing efforts to gain control of settlements along the T0513 Horlivka-Bakhmut highway in order to increase pressure on Bakhmut from the southwest.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks to push west of the outskirts of Donetsk City on August 19. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops conducted assault operations in the direction of Pervomaiske (15 km northwest of Donetsk City) and fought around Opytne and Pisky, both on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City.[23] Russian sources also continued to report that Russian troops control more than two-thirds of Marinka on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City and that attempts to advance through the rest of the settlement are complicated by Ukrainian fortifications.[24] Russian forces continued to target Ukrainian positions along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline with artillery strikes.[25]
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack southwest of Donetsk City in the direction of the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border on August 19. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted to improve their tactical positions near Novomykhailivka, 25 km southwest of Donetsk City.[26] Russian sources also claimed that Russian troops have reportedly moved to support an encirclement of Vuhledar (45 km southwest of Donetsk City) and taken control of the surrounding settlements of Pavlivka and Vodyane.[27] While ISW cannot independently verify these claims, Russian forces will likely continue operations around Vuhledar to gain access to the road that runs northeast into Marinka in order to support efforts to push west of the Donetsk City area.
www.understandingwar.org/...
x The Russian fascist invasion army has few trained soldiers left. Cannot fodder are pulled off the streets of the Moscow empire’s colonies and thrown into the meat grinder of Donbas.
The lives of their soldiers mean nothing to Russian commanders. They send them all to die. — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) August 20, 2022
x “The Russian military ended up showing up to the fight with almost no dismounted infantry…who is going to fight in cities & urban environments if you don’t have infantry?…if you don’t have infantry you can’t hold territory” @KofmanMichael #Ukraine
https://t.co/Dz09I202bI — John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) August 19, 2022
x A Russian diplomat accidentally admitted in a tweet that Russia is, indeed, targeting Ukrainian civilians (which, of course, is a war crime). He then deleted the tweet and followed up with a very strange attempt to claim that he didn’t actually tweet what he just tweeted. pic.twitter.com/PKb1jqVMc7 — Caroline Orr Bueno, Ph.D (@RVAwonk) August 19, 2022
x In the northeast of Donetsk region, the Russian fascist invaders led offensives in the direction of Vyimka, Ivano-Dar'ivka, Soledar, Bakhmuts'ke, Bakhmut, Kodema and Zaytseve. Ukrainian defenders strongly repulsed these assaults and forced the rashists to retreat. pic.twitter.com/19L8rCyXxx — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) August 19, 2022
x Reference images from before the fire pic.twitter.com/oJhnOZK5vb — H I Sutton (@CovertShores) August 19, 2022
x WATCH @SamBendett joins @MSNBC to discuss how a design flaw in Russian tanks is impacting the war in Ukraine.
https://t.co/YY0grsjVeq — CNAS (@CNASdc) August 19, 2022
x Russia's invasion of Ukraine closed the post-Cold War age and marked a turning point in the international order.
But towards what? In the latest @NewStatesman, I assess what the past 6 months have revealed about the emergent new era in world affairs:
https://t.co/pY1GwWXeMz — Jeremy Cliffe (@JeremyCliffe) August 18, 2022
x Amazing ! This video is floating around of Russians leaving Belgorod, Russia. Unlike Russia, Ukraine strikes at military targets not civilians pic.twitter.com/jxAF1rzqSw — Olga Lautman 🇺🇦 (@OlgaNYC1211) August 19, 2022
x ⚡️There are no signs of systematic shelling of Zaporizhzhya NPP, confirm new satellite images of Maxar Technologies — CNN
«This contradicts the Friday statements of Russian President Vladimir Putin that the Ukrainian military repeatedly struck the station», writes the publication pic.twitter.com/gIF5qSH8Ad — Flash (@Flash43191300) August 19, 2022
x Ukraine war: Damage to nuclear plant would be suicide - UN chief | Via BBC
https://t.co/BjDEL65LSo — SafetyPin-Daily (@SafetyPinDaily) August 19, 2022
x Ukraine fears Russian plan to cut power from captured nuclear plant
https://t.co/HZvA7jB2AZ — Guardian news (@guardiannews) August 19, 2022
x So I guess this means, based on pattern analysis of information re comms between Macron and Putin, that Putin will likely move to thwart this mission.
https://t.co/m1Bl4ouCSg — Michael S. Smith II (@MichaelSSmithII) August 19, 2022
x Russia Just Pushed Us One Step Closer to Nuclear Catastrophe
https://t.co/dWFQksMua3 — Lawrence Circosta (@cirlar49) August 19, 2022
x According to data from V-Dem, a monitoring institute based in Sweden, more democracies are declining, and even sliding into autocracy, today than at any point in the last century.
https://t.co/1vFz3pC66L — New York Times World (@nytimesworld) August 19, 2022
x The rashists (Russian fascists) fire missiles and rockets at Kharkiv constantly. Bus stop bomb shelters are being installed in the city. They seat 12, have a surveillance camera and monitor, and sand to extinguish fires. pic.twitter.com/uJ5ah2AVr2 — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) August 19, 2022
x Despite its intense focus on Ukraine, Western intelligence officials said, the FSB either failed to grasp how fiercely Ukraine would resist, or did understand but couldn’t convey such inconvenient information to Putin. — Greg Miller (@gregpmiller) August 19, 2022
The communications exposing these preparations are part of a larger trove of sensitive materials obtained by Ukrainian and other security services and reviewed by The Washington Post. They offer rare insight into the activities of the FSB — a sprawling service that bears enormous responsibility for the failed Russian war plan and the hubris that propelled it.
An agency whose domain includes internal security in Russia as well as espionage in the former Soviet states, the FSB has spent decades spying on Ukraine, attempting to co-opt its institutions, paying off officials and working to impede any perceived drift toward the West. No aspect of the FSB’s intelligence mission outside Russia was more important than burrowing into all levels of Ukrainian society.
And yet, the agency failed to incapacitate Ukraine’s government, foment any semblance of a pro-Russian groundswell or interrupt President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hold on power. Its analysts either did not fathom how forcefully Ukraine would respond, Ukrainian and Western officials said, or did understand but couldn’t or wouldn’t convey such sober assessments to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
[Hubris and isolation led Vladimir Putin to misjudge Ukraine]
The humiliations of Russia’s military have largely overshadowed the failures of the FSB and other intelligence agencies. But in some ways, these have been even more incomprehensible and consequential, officials said, underpinning nearly every Kremlin war decision.
“The Russians were wrong by a mile,” said a senior U.S. official with regular access to classified intelligence on Russia and its security services. “They set up an entire war effort to seize strategic objectives that were beyond their means,” the official said. “Russia’s mistake was really fundamental and strategic.”
Ukraine’s security services have an interest in discrediting Russia’s spy agencies, but key details from the trove were corroborated by officials in Western governments.
The files show that the FSB unit responsible for Ukraine surged in size in the months leading up to the war and was counting on support from a vast network of paid agents in Ukraine’s security apparatus. Some complied and sabotaged Ukraine’s defenses, officials said, while others appear to have pocketed their FSB payments but balked at doing the Kremlin’s bidding when the fighting started.
There are records that add to the mystery of Russian miscalculations. Extensive polls conducted for the FSB show that large segments of Ukraine’s population were prepared to resist Russian encroachment, and that any expectation that Russian forces would be greeted as liberators was unfounded. Even so, officials said, the FSB continued to feed the Kremlin rosy assessments that Ukraine’s masses would welcome the arrival of Russia’s military and the restoration of Moscow-friendly rule.
www.washingtonpost.com/...
x FSB's Ukraine directorate surged in size from about 30 officers in 2019 to as many as 160 on the eve of the invasion, officials said. FSB teams were assigned regions of Ukraine and networks of sleeper agents inside the country. — Greg Miller (@gregpmiller) August 19, 2022
x Despite profound failures of FSB, U.S. and other officials said they see no evidence that Putin has cleaned house. FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov and the leader of its Ukraine directorate, Sergey Beseda, both remain in their jobs. — Greg Miller (@gregpmiller) August 19, 2022
x Сan Moscow make up for heavy ground force losses in Ukraine? And what are the long-term implications of these losses for the Russian armed forces as a whole?@pavel_luzin for @RiddleRussia
https://t.co/jQiQa2jMw6 — Anton Barbashin (@ABarbashin) August 19, 2022
x Russia’s weaponisation of gas deliveries will result in energy shortages, high prices and an economic downturn in Europe this winter. Read our latest energy supply crisis coverage here:
https://t.co/1yRTHEj5Uo pic.twitter.com/hUSkc9GQr3 — Economist Intelligence: EIU (@TheEIU) August 19, 2022
x Neither snow, nor sleet, nor war: Ukraine mail carriers carry on - love this story by @loydstern @DDaltonBennett
and Anastasia Galouchka with @WGrzedzinski's photos
https://t.co/h7iQ2nnYK1 — Chloe Coleman (@ccolemanmedia) August 19, 2022
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