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Ukraine Invasion Day 175: With Fall fast approaching, the next several weeks may prove crucial [1]
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Date: 2022-08-16
Russia is hosting #ARMY2022, a International Military-Technical Forum in Kubinka just outside #Moscow. displaying weapons captured from Ukraine as well as the latest in international military tech available for sale.
“Ukraine’s military: Russian forces sustain personnel, equipment losses in southern Ukraine. Operational Command “South“ reported that Ukrainian forces killed 15 Russian troops and destroyed an anti-tank guided missile and six armored and military vehicles on Aug. 16.”
x "The Ukrainians are taking terrible losses, but they could outlast the Russians with Western help." The Stakes in Ukraine Have Not Changed - The Atlantic
https://t.co/nIFz1uaLXi — Michael Huggins (@MichaelHugg2591) August 17, 2022
x X-69 (Kh-69) Air Launched Missile with 290 KM Range.
it has apparently been tested in Ukraine.#ARMY2022 pic.twitter.com/kFXQR024ms — International Defence Analysis (@Defence_IDA) August 16, 2022
x An exhibition of weapons and equipment captured by the #Russians during the special operation opened at the #Army2022 forum. Among the exhibits you can see the 155-mm American howitzer #M777A1, armored personnel carrier BTR-4E, armored vehicles HMMWV. #Ukraine #Russian #Putin pic.twitter.com/vfX2Mzt6mL — Erik Korsas (@KorsasErik) August 16, 2022
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations along the Kharkiv City axis on August 15. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces from Kozacha Lopan again unsuccessfully attempted to break Ukrainian lines of defense near Udy. [27] Russian sources have claimed control of Udy since August 13 but have yet to produce evidence of any reported gains. [28] Russian forces also targeted settlements approximately 40 km north, east, and southeast from Kharkiv City with airstrikes. [29] Russian forces continued to target Kharkiv City and surrounding settlements with unspecified missiles and tube, tank, and rocket artillery. [30]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces attempted limited ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk on August 15. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces withdrew following unsuccessful assaults in the Mazanivka direction (24km northwest of Slovyansk) and the Dolyna direction (20km northwest of Slovyansk). [8] Russian forces also failed in their attempts to dislodge Ukrainian forces with concentrated artillery fire in Krasnopillya and Mazanivka (both about 24km northwest of Slovyansk), Hrushuvakha (30km west of Izyum), and Asiivka (45km northwest of Izyum). [9] Russian artillery also continued routine shelling and strikes on Slovyansk, northwest of Izyum, and along the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border, including near Zalyman, Bohorodychne, Brazhkivka, and Virnopillya. [10]
Russian forces conducted multiple offensive operations east and southeast of Siversk on August 15. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian attempts to advance toward settlements east and southeast of Siversk were all unsuccessful. [11] Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Chechen “Akhmat” special forces (SPETSNAZ) gained unspecified strategically important grounds around Siversk, confirming that Chechen units are still operating on the Siversk-Lysychansk axis. [12] Russian aviation operated near Spirne and Pryshyb. [13] Russian media additionally shared footage of Russians using loitering munitions to strike Ukrainian positions near Siversk. [14] Russian forces continued routine shelling of the Siversk area on August 15. [15]
Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast and southeast of Bakhmut on August 15, and made limited territorial gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces withdrew to their original positions after conducting unsuccessful offensives in the directions of Soledar (10km northeast of Bakhmut), Kodema (20km southeast of Bakhmut), and Vershyna (15km southeast of Bakhmut). [16] Geolocated footage showed that unspecified Russian Cossack units advanced to the Knauf Gips Donbas gypsum factory southeast of Soledar, and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik claimed that Russian forces are “clearing out” Soledar. [17] Proxy officials have claimed control over the Knauf factory since August 5, and it is likely that they are exaggerating the extent of Russian advances in Soledar. [18] The Ukrainian General Staff also stated that Russian forces intensified reconnaissance in the Bakhmut direction and conducted airstrikes near Soledar and Yakolivka (16km northeast of Bakhmut). [19] Russian forces also continued shelling settlements in the Bakhmut direction, including the city itself. [20]
Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations around Avdiivka on August 15. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces retreated after launching unsuccessful offensive operations to improve tactical positions around Pisky, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, and Staromykhailivka, all situated southwest of Avdiivka. [21] Russian Telegram channels claimed that the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 100th Brigade pushed Ukrainian forces towards Pervomaiske using infantry assault groups and MLRS support, but geolocated footage shows that both Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in heavy artillery combat around Avdiivka. [22]
Russian forces launched ground assaults in an effort to break Ukrainian defenses southwest of Donetsk City on August 15. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully launched assaults in the directions of Novomykhaylivka, Volodymyrivka, Pavlivka, and Vodyane, all situated southwest of Donetsk City and near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border. DNR Deputy Information Minister Daniil Bezsonov claimed that Russian forces have broken Ukrainian defenses around Vuhledar (about 50km southwest of Donetsk City) but did not provide concrete details of the advance. [23] Russian forces likely intensified their attacks in the area in an effort to gain control over the T0524 highway to Donetsk City. [24] The DNR claimed that the DNR 107th Battalion is advancing in Mariinka, approximately 22km west of Donetsk City. [25] Russian forces continued to target Ukrainian-held territories west of Donetsk City using airstrikes and tank, tube, and rocket artillery. [26]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x We NEED to get the issue of Russian artillery supremacy in Donbas resolved.
Ukrainian victory depends on this.
HIMARSs have helped a lot, but:
- still not enough modern artillery pieces
- still not enough munitions
- more effective counter-battery fire required — Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 15, 2022
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian and Ukrainian forces again exchanged accusations of shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast on August 15. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces fired Western-provided M777 rounds at Enerhodar, but provided no evidence for these claims.[31] Russian sources also rejected the August 14 international call for Russian forces to leave the territory of the Zaporizhzhia NPP and doubled down on accusing Ukrainian forces of shelling the NPP and Western states of overinvolvement and misplaced blame.[32] Russian forces shelled Nikopol and Marhanets (across the Dnipro River from Enerhodar) with MLRS systems.[33]
Russian forces did not conduct any reported ground assaults on the Southern Axis on August 15 but continued shelling across the entire southern front line. [34] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces on the Southern Axis have not changed their troop composition or position as of August 15. [35] Kherson Oblast Military Administration Head Serhiy Khlan stated on August 15 that Ukrainian strikes on the bridges leading to upper Kherson Oblast have rendered the bridges inoperable to heavy equipment. [36] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Andriivka, Bilohirka, and Lozove near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River in northwestern Kherson Oblast, and near Myrne and Blahodatne, northwest of Kherson City. [37] Russian forces also conducted airstrikes on Shcherbaky on the T0812 highway, and Charivne south of Tavriiske, Zaporizhia Oblast. [38] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command also reported that Russian forces launched missiles from S-300 air defense systems on educational and civilian infrastructure in Mykolaiv City. [39] Russian forces continued shelling along the line of contact. [40]
Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces struck Russian ammunition depots in Blahodativka near the bridgehead at Lozove, and Novopetrivka in northern Kherson Oblast. [41] Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian partisans blew up a rail bridge on the southwestern outskirts of Melitopol on August 13 that Russian forces frequently used to transport military equipment between the south and the east. [42]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x On this battlefront the rashists shelled Stepova Dolyna, Nova Zorya, Prybuz'ke, Shevchenkove, Kyselivka, Blahodatne, Shyroke, Kobzartsi, Andriyivka, Dobryanka, Osokorivka, Pot'omkyne, Trudolyubivka and Velyka Kostromka. Airstrikes near Posad-Pokrovs'ke, Bila Krynytsya and Lozove. pic.twitter.com/B1oGqaYki2 — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) August 16, 2022
x On this battlefront the rashists shelled Stepova Dolyna, Nova Zorya, Prybuz'ke, Shevchenkove, Kyselivka, Blahodatne, Shyroke, Kobzartsi, Andriyivka, Dobryanka, Osokorivka, Pot'omkyne, Trudolyubivka and Velyka Kostromka. Airstrikes near Posad-Pokrovs'ke, Bila Krynytsya and Lozove. pic.twitter.com/B1oGqaYki2 — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) August 16, 2022
x Kherson-A poor attempt at an offensive battle near Novohryhorivka ended with significant losses and escape for the occupiers. — WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) August 16, 2022
x "'I make no apologies for the fact that one of our objectives here is to avoid direct conflict with Russia', Sullivan said of the prewar period."
https://t.co/7obCzekzWu — Ali Wyne (@Ali_Wyne) August 16, 2022
In a recent interview with Russian state media outlet TASS, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s North American Department, Aleksandr Darichev, said that in the event the U.S. designates Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, it would represent “a point of no return” in relations between the two countries. Speaking on behalf of the country that ruthlessly invaded its smaller neighbor and is continually being accused of human rights violations and serious war crimes, Darichev shamelessly claimed on Saturday that the West, led by the United States, “has trampled upon international law and absolute taboos in diplomatic practice.”
Appearing on the state TV show Sunday Evening With Vladimir Solovyov a day later, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova raged against the possibility of such a designation, claiming that these plans were caused by failure on the part of the U.S. to isolate Russia from the rest of the world. Zakharova derided the level of competency of the U.S. officials, questioning whether they even know how to read, since Moscow has repeatedly warned Washington of the “consequences” should the U.S. label Russia a sponsor of terror.
The bipartisan resolution to declare Russia a sponsor of terrorism passed in the Senate at the end of July, after being introduced by Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT). In the House of Representatives, Speaker Nancy Pelosi reportedly warned Secretary of State Antony Blinken that unless he moves ahead with the designation, Congress will pass appropriate legislation of its own accord.
Last week, the parliament of Latvia declared Russia a “state sponsor of terrorism” for attacks on civilians during the war in Ukraine, urging other countries to follow suit. Rihards Kols, who chairs the parliament’s foreign affairs committee, asserted: “Russia has for many years supported and financed terrorist regimes and organizations in various ways, directly and indirectly.” To illustrate that point, Kols brought up Russia’s involvement in Syria, its downing of the MH-17 flight over eastern Ukraine in 2014, and the 2018 poisoning of Sergei Skripal in the U.K.
www.thedailybeast.com/...
x Deputy dean of world politics at Moscow State Univ.: "What’s going to hurt is that the families harmed by the country that is a sponsor of terrorism have the right to file claims in American courts. Masses of Ukrainian citizens will be able to file suits."
https://t.co/QCb0dwkXzc — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) August 16, 2022
x Delighted to see our memo on Russia’s imperial innocence republished by @NewVoiceUkraine.
Reminder that it was written together with the amazing @BotakozKassymb1
https://t.co/XGHJOQJ8yI — Erica Marat (@EricaMarat) August 16, 2022
x News has come that Belarussian military bases are being equipped with new technologies with which an attack could be launched against Ukraine.#UkraineRussiaWar
https://t.co/tCtH0p2saQ — KyivPost (@KyivPost) August 16, 2022
x Today was the first court session in the case of the commandant of Izolyatsia - Palych. Five armed guards brought him to court. He didn’t change a bit and he didn’t repent. He only lost some weight. It's still nice to see him on the other side of the bars.@christogrozev 😉 pic.twitter.com/6fJWdfmLlb — Stanislav Aseyev (@AseyevStanislav) August 16, 2022
x NUCLEAR HACK: J. comme JéJé @HeliosRunner passes along information on a Russian cyber-attack against the website of Ukraine’s nuclear power authority. Information is evolving.
https://t.co/aJHls3a18l pic.twitter.com/OMQg13FYU5 — Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 16, 2022
x Artificial intelligence now helps to monitor destruction of Ukrainian cities by war
Project UADamage uses artificial intelligence which compares sattelite images before and after the invasion & marks by color one of four levels of destruction.
https://t.co/9ID3BLSwue pic.twitter.com/e0fl3kM0nO — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) August 16, 2022
x ⚡️Russia shells Kharkiv with Tornado rockets.
According to the regional Prosecutor's Office, Russian forces shelled a residential area in Kharkiv with a 9A52-4 Tornado, the country's newest multiple rocket launcher. — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 16, 2022
x Putin's fascist regime has closed the bridge connecting occupied #Crimea & mainland #Russia. 30,000+ escaped just yesterday before closure, which appears to have been done to prevent civilians from leaving & to allow regime administration & families to escape without traffic. pic.twitter.com/ipLpT0q9pz — Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) August 16, 2022
x A gender analysis centers people—not the nation state, weapons, or equipment—when understanding security needs and interventions for the purposes of providing support, explains @CoriFleser in our latest issue brief.
Learn more here:
https://t.co/PYS3rGbpUv — Atlantic Council (@AtlanticCouncil) August 16, 2022
x Finally, we have found the Russians' achilles heel.
Tourist visas.
https://t.co/qbLObN8OVv — KT "Special Intelligence Operation" (@KremlinTrolls) August 15, 2022
x Lithuanian deputy offered Russians an option on how to "solve" problems with visas
Russians don’t have the opportunity to get to #Lithuania through #Estonia and #Latvia, since the countries stop issuing visas to #Russian citizens.
https://t.co/kB9AT8Uafo — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 16, 2022
x 1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 159-172. The first half of August has seen an emerging shift in the strategic initiative moving decidedly away from the Russia to that of Ukraine. With fall fast approaching the next several weeks may prove as critical as the early days of the war. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/VNNpW6pynB — Jomini of the West (@JominiW) August 17, 2022
2/ I have included a few charts in this thread that address common phrase and acronyms used in the graphics below with their corresponding definitions. This listing will expand as needed.
3/ Weather Outlook. Forecast for the next 10-days will see temps range from 35-28 C during the day & 22-18 C at night. Cloud cover will not degrade air & missile strikes, while 71.5%-night illumination will significantly aid ZSU SOF/Partisan activity.
4/ Kharkiv OD. Little change to the Kharkiv OD during 01-14 August 2022. The ZSU and SVRF have moved a small number of additional forces into the OD, but not enough to provide a distinct tactical advantage. SRVF spoiling attacks will continue to hinder ZSU offensive actions.
5/ Donetsk Oblast OD. Perhaps the most significant change to occurred in the Ukrainian TVD in the past 30-days has been in the Donetsk OD. The Ukrainians are making the most of the SVRF redeployment to southern Ukraine to retake lost territory in the Izyum area. #Izyum #Bakhmut
6/ The ZSU has been counterattacking toward Izyum from SW of Izyum since about 30-31 July. These gains have forced a beleaguered OGORF-I to consolidate and shrink their defensive lines closer to Izyum & redeploy their base of supply closer to Kupyansk.
x 512-13. In the large forest west of Izyum 2 new films shows recent UAF drone activity now closer to Rudneve. Previously strikes on/around the village in tweets 402-3 + 500. Here reportedly a EW station station 1.3km south of Rudneve (geolocation in link).
https://t.co/cXnrjZ5yLV — Dan (@Danspiun) August 16, 2022
7/ Further east Russian offensive efforts against Siversk have devolved into small-scale tactical actions. It has been in the Bakhmut area that the SVRF have had their “greatest success”, gaining some ground of positional advantage relative to ZSU units defending here.
8/ The SVRF is pushing the 1st & 2d Army Corps hard to breakthrough lines the Ukrainians have held firm since 2014-15. 1st Army Corps forces have at least partial control of Pisky. Ukrainian fortified lines appear to have been breach in the Marinka area, fighting here continues.
9/ Zaporizhzhia OD. The SVRF has significantly increased their artillery, missile, and airstrikes in the Zaporizhzhia OD, likely to preempt any attempt by the ZSU to transfer to the offensive in this OD by forcing them to remain on the defensive.
10/ The ZSU appears to be replicating the conditions used to defeat the SVRF assault against Kyiv by leveraging precision artillery strike in SVRF deep areas combined with SOF-Partisan attacks in Russian rear areas to force the SVRF to seek disengagement.
11/ These deep attacks are forcing the Russians to pull away from their primary strategic objectives & instead focus on defending their logistical bases, therefore keeping them under unrelenting pressure & denying time to regain offensive equilibrium.
x Ukrainian partisans of the National Resistance damaged a railway bridge between Melitopol and Tokmak, on territory temporarily occupied by the Russian fascist invaders.
https://t.co/7RuF2PiIos — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) August 16, 2022
12/ Odesa-Kherson OD. The ZSU is replicating the same actions / conditions in the Kherson-Odesa OD. Successful deep & rear area attacks by the ZSU and resistance fighters have nullified the SVRFs relative advantage in ground combat power here. #Kherson #Mykolaiv #Odesa #enerhodar
13/ The ZSU counteroffensive in the south will not be initiated by grand maneuvers, it will more likely resemble the actions taken against the 2d GCAA and 41st CAA in the Sumy & Chernihiv Oblast during the early days of the war, but this time at scale.
14/ Ukrainian actions/activity in the Zaporizhzhia & Odesa-Kherson ODs are shaping conditions to conduct a counteroffensive in the most vulnerable VSRF Operational Direction to decisively seize the strategic initiative away from the Russians & throughout the fall & winter.
15/ Black Sea OTMO. The past two weeks has not seen a significant change in VMF activity throughout the Black Sea. Russian surface naval vessels continue to keep close to the Crimean coast or operate in the SW Black Sea. The bulk of the Black Seas Fleet remains at port. #Crimea
16/ Ukraine SVKO. Russian SVKO activity in western Ukraine continues to increase. The VKS has been attempting to expand its UAV coverage over a wider portion of western and central Ukraine at depth. PSU air defenses have been highly effective in shooting down VKS PGMs.
17/ In south and eastern Ukraine attempts at a suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) campaign also remain generally ineffective. VKS combat air support missions still can only produce negligible results, mostly likely due to the reliance on toss bombing.
Unroll available on Thread Reader
x It seems like the Russians use the in-direct rocket attack method with their attack aircraft too. (Airborne artillery) pic.twitter.com/fvx3AhXDpv — Def Mon (@DefMon3) August 13, 2022
18/ This open-source operational summary is based on publicly available information such as the ZSU daily operations brief, Russian MoD daily brief, various Ukrainian & Russian Telegram channels, western intelligence public statements, and Ukrainian/Western military analysts.
19/ This summary is indebted to the excellent reporting & analysis by @WarintheFuture @IAPonomarenko @DefMon3 @CovertShores @TheShipYard2 @volodymyr @Cyx_5 @EerikMatero @ChuckPfarrer @HelloMrBond @MalcolmNance @dupuyinstitute @KofmanMichael @Militarylandnet among so many others.
20/ Any errors to the information presented here are strictly my own and will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
• • •
x Article Link:
https://t.co/mNZVOWQRYW
Ukrainian Armed Forces inflict losses on Russian troops on Pivdennyi Buh front and force them to retreat – General Staff report
Please Follow us to help the people of Ukraine #ukrainewar #ukraine #war #army #military #specialforces #russ — SWFL Warriors (@swflwarrior) August 16, 2022
x Ukraine’s manufacturing sector suffers war losses, but most industries keep optimism about the future. However, basic human needs manufacture (food, clothing, shoes) show best production and recovery results. These are the main findings of IER survey 👇
https://t.co/XwYztnrDu0 — IER Kyiv (@IER_Kyiv) August 16, 2022
[END]
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