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FL-Sen: New UNF Poll Has Rep. Val Demings (D) BEATING Little Marco (R) 48-44 [1]

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Date: 2022-08-16

Rep. Val Demings (D. FL-10)

Here’s the latest news today out of Florida:

x Florida Senate:



Demings (D) 48% (+4)

Rubio (R-inc) 44%



University of North Florida, 1,624 RV, 8/8-12https://t.co/ORmKoKqBSQ — Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 16, 2022 Ron DeSantis is on his way to re-election, and Marco Rubio is in trouble, that is what a new poll from the University of North Florida is showing as voters hit the polls for Florida’s primary election. “Rubio’s approval numbers are Biden-esque,” says Dr. Michael Binder, of the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at the University of North Florida. “This is registered voters, and Val is up four points, but this is registered voters, not a likely voter’s model.” The poll, which shows Congresswoman Val Demings beating Senator Marco Rubio 48%-44% also shows Rubio with an approval rate of just 37%.

Here’s some more info:

A new poll conducted by the Public Option Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida finds gubernatorial candidate Nikki Fried, Florida’s agriculture commissioner, ahead of former Gov. Charlie Crist in the Democratic primary -- but still seven points behind Republican incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis in a race among registered voters. The poll consisted of a random sample of 1,624 registered Florida voters and was conducted Aug. 8 through Aug. 12. Registered Democrats were asked their choices in the Aug. 23 primary for governor and Senate. In the governor’s race, 47% said they would vote for Fried, followed by 43% for Crist; Cadance Daniel and Robert Willis had 4% and 1%, respectively; 6% didn’t know or refused to answer. “Fried seems to have reversed the eight-point lead that Crist had when we asked registered Democrats about vote choice in February,” Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and UNF professor of political science, said in a prepared statement. “It’s possible that the overturning of Roe v. Wade changed the make-up of this race, and has particularly energized women that are almost 20 points more likely to vote for her.” The poll also asked registered voters, who indicated they’d vote in the general midterm, asked who they would vote for if the candidates were DeSantis and Fried. Fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for DeSantis, with 43% indicating a vote for Fried, and 5% said they would vote for someone else. DeSantis also came out on top with 50% when asked the same question if the Democratic candidate was Crist, who had 42%, and 6% saying they would vote for someone else. The poll shows that Val Demings came out on top in the head-to-head against Marco Rubio for U.S. Senate, with 48% indicating a vote for Demings and 44% for Rubio, with 7% saying they would vote for someone else.

FYI:

The UNF survey says that if the General Election were held today, DeSantis would beat Fried 50% to 43%. He would beat Crist 50% to 42%. Binder said both potential matchups are much closer than they appeared in February, when DeSantis was up by over 20 points. It says Demings will take 80% of the vote in Democratic U.S. Senate Primary Election and that she leads Rubio 48% to 44%. UNF said the poll has a margin of error of just over 3 points. “It is important to keep in mind that these are registered voters, and Republicans are generally more likely to turn out in November,” Binder cautioned. The Fried findings are the most unexpected. Even Fried’s internal polls show her trailing Crist, though by a tighter margin than other public polls. Historically, UNF polls have been faulted for frequently finding Democrats ahead in statewide races they wound up losing, though the margins of error usually absorbed much of the differences. In the fall of 2016, for example, two UNF polls showed Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in Florida, the second poll with her lead within the margin of error. Trump won by just over 1 point. In the early fall of 2018, UNF pollsters had Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum leading DeSantis 47% to 43%, with a 4-point margin of error. DeSantis won by a fraction of a point. UNF also had then- Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and Republican Gov. Rick Scott in a dead heat in the 2018 U.S. Senate election, and Scott won by a fraction. For this poll, UNF described fine-tuning that included stratifying Florida into 18 demographic-geographic areas, instead of 10 markets, and walking the data through three steps of weighting to match samples with Florida demographics.

Click here for the full results.

Primary Day in Florida is August 23rd. Click here for more information on registering to vote.

Click here to sign up for a GOTV event with Blue Shift Florida.

Democracy and Health are on the ballot and we need to get ready to flip Florida Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Demings and her fellow Florida Democrats campaigns:

Charlie Crist for Governor

Nikki Fried for Governor

Annette Taddeo for Congress

Val Demings for Senate

Florida Democratic Party

Remove Ron PAC

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/16/2116943/-FL-Sen-New-UNF-Poll-Has-Rep-Val-Demings-D-BEATING-Little-Marco-R-48-44

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