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2022's most important House election so far takes place in just 10 days [1]
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Date: 2022-08-13
If Democrat Pat Ryan wins next week's special election in New York's 19th district, it could help Democrats prevail in two House seats in the fall.
U.S. Rep. Antonio Delgado’s decision earlier this year to run for lieutenant governor of New York set up a special election in the Hudson River Valley that will have an outsize impact on control of Congress.
The Aug. 23 vote won’t just be the first congressional battleground contest of the Biden presidency. A Ryan victory would invigorate Democrats nationally by demonstrating that they stand a good chance of overcoming typical midterm gains by the out-of-the-White-House party.
Even more significantly: A quirk in redistricting will allow the special election in one swing district to have a huge — perhaps determinative — impact on two swing districts in this fall’s General Election.
The special election in New York’s existing 19th District pits two evenly matched candidates for the right to finish out Delgado’s term. Democrat Pat Ryan, the Ulster County executive, faces Republican Marcus Molinaro, the Dutchess County executive. Ryan is an area native, West Point grad, combat veteran and tech startup founder. Molinaro has held various elected offices for 29 years and was the GOP’s 2018 nominee for governor.
A redistricting quirk makes the race even more consequential, however. Because most of Ulster County falls in New York’s new 18th district, Ryan will run for that seat in the fall against another formidable Republican candidate, state Assemblyman Colin J. Schmitt.
Meanwhile, Molinari will be on the new 19th district ballot this fall, facing off against Josh Riley, a well-qualified Democrat. Riley is a working-class district native and Harvard Law grad who served as a staffer for longtime area Rep. Maurice Hinchey, among others.
A bit confusing? It’s not made not easier by the fact that Ryan’s and Riley’s names are similar, is it?
But the upshot is that Pat Ryan’s victory on Aug. 23 would help Democrats in this fall’s 18th District contest because Ryan would be running in the fall as an incumbent congressman (incumbency is typically a major advantage in congressional contests).
And Ryan’s victory would enhance Riley’s chances in this fall’s 19th district race because Riley would then be running against a non-incumbent. If Molinari won the special election, however, he’d be the incumbent, and Riley’s chances would certainly diminish.
You couldn’t write a script to make things more of a lab for the contest to control the House. All three districts — the old 19th, the new 18th and the new 19th — are solidly swing districts. And all four candidates are the kind that politicos would call “high quality” candidates; they have the backgrounds and fundraising prowess to be credible competitors.
As far as I can tell, none of the candidates have been handicapped by scandal, and each is emphasizing the issues that their respective parties are stressing for the fall: inflation and “crime” for Molinaro and Schmitt; economic fairness and particularly abortion for Ryan and Riley.
FiveThirtyEight’s “Deluxe” model rates this fall’s 18th district contest, between Ryan and Schmitt, as the House’s ninth most competitive race. The 19th district faceoff between Riley and Molinaro comes in at 32nd — for the time being.
In both contests, the Republicans are slight favorites. But that surely would shift in the both Democrats’ direction if Ryan won the special election.
The only polls I could find for the special election were released by a pro-Molinaro group. They showed the Republican about 10 points ahead, which — given the typical bias of partisan polls — probably means the raise is very close.
Early voting began today. But the stakes are high enough to motivate me — a Georgia resident — to throw a bit of money Ryan’s way and also to volunteer to help him remotely in the final week’s push.
How about joining me by sending a contribution now to -— or by volunteering to help this week with this vital special election? Who knows: It may determine the future of our democracy.
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