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Ukraine Invasion Day 170: ground combat continues "at a grinding slog", however counted [1]
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Date: 2022-08-11
The disinformation war continues following the attack on the Saky air base in Crimea. “Russia has intensified its information operations by spreading rumors in an effort to create friction between Ukrainian military and political officials.”
Ukraine has also sustained heavy casualties, the officials say. The Ukrainian government has been reluctant to disclose figures but has said 100 to 200 of its troops were being killed a day.
The Russian government classifies troop deaths as state secrets, and the country’s war dead are rarely mentioned on state television. Russia last announced an official figure in March, when it said that 1,351 Russian soldiers had been killed in the war. At the time, American officials estimated that the number was closer to 5,000.
Two American officials said that estimate of Russia’s losses included about 20,000 deaths. Of that number, 5,000 are believed to be mercenaries from the Wagner Group , a private force with ties to Mr. Putin, and foreign fighters, one of the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to discuss sensitive military assessments.
“They have made some incremental gains in the east, although not very much in the last couple of weeks, but that has come at extraordinary cost to the Russian military because of how well the Ukrainian military has performed and all the assistance the Ukrainian military has gotten.”
Earlier this summer, Russian forces captured the Luhansk region of Ukraine, the easternmost part of the country. But in neighboring Donetsk, their progress has stalled, in no small part because of heavy casualties, American military officials said.
Russia’s glacial pace in the east has been further stymied by the arrival of American multiple-launch rocket systems , which have allowed Ukrainian troops to take back some territory and made it more difficult for Russian soldiers to reach other areas.
WASHINGTON — The staggeringly high rate of Russian casualties in Ukraine means that President Vladimir V. Putin may not be able to achieve one of his key war objectives: seizing the entire eastern region of the country this year, officials in the Biden administration and military experts say.
Satellite photos before and after the explosion shows more than a dozen Russian fighter jets parked at an air base on the Crimean were blown up by Ukrainian special forces, causing heavy losses. Russian said the ammunition exploded by itself and had nothing to do with Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/ha9sg3FlPs
x The occupants unsuccessfully tried to redraw the tactical position near Grigorki, Verkhnyokam’yansky and Ivano-Dar’yivka. The ZSU pushed the enemy back.
Russian troops also sustained losses and w –
https://t.co/ukckZFZv8l (Зеркало не
https://t.co/7OzfOqimi9 — AmplifyUkraine (@AmplifyUkraine) August 11, 2022
Ukrainian and Russian occupation authorities accused each other of shelling the ZNPP on August 11. Ukraine’s nuclear operating enterprise Energoatom reported that Russian shelling damaged the area of the commandant’s office, storage of radiation sources, and the nearby fire station. The fire station is approximately 5km east of the ZNPP. The Ukrainian Strategic Communications Center stated that Russian forces are deliberately staging provocations at the ZNPP and are carrying out dangerous experiments involving power lines to blame Ukrainian forces at the United Nations (UN) Security Council. Russian-appointed Zaporizhia Oblast Occupation Administration Head Yevgeniy Balitsky claimed that Ukrainian shelling damaged the ”Kakhovskaya” high-voltage power line, resulting in a fire and a large cloud of smoke seen on social media footage from the city.
Russian officials have previously accused Ukraine of striking positions of crucial significance to Ukrainians – such as the falsely-claimed HIMARS strike on the Olenivka colony in occupied Donetsk Oblast. A CNN investigation concluded that “there is almost no chance that a HIMARS rocket caused the damage to the warehouse where the prisoners were being held.” Russians may be continuing a similar narrative around the ZNPP to discourage further Western support to Ukraine. ISW cannot independently verify the party responsible for the shelling of the ZNPP.
www.criticalthreats.org/...
x The Ukrainian army targeted Russian positions near the village of Bruskynske in Kherson Oblast and a Russian stronghold near Andriivka. — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 12, 2022
Russia’s 64th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (64th SGMRB) of the 35th Combined Arms Army (CAA) has likely been destroyed in combat, possibly as part of an intentional Kremlin effort to conceal the war crimes it committed in Kyiv Oblast. Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty (RFEFL) investigative journalist Mark Krutov conducted an investigation into the brigade following its participation in atrocities in Bucha and concluded that after heavy fighting on the Izyum and Slovyansk axes, the brigade has largely ceased to exist. Krutov stated that out of 1,500 soldiers who were in the brigade before the war, 200 to 300 were likely killed. Krutov quoted CNA Russia Studies director Michael Kofman’s estimates that the typical ratio for those killed to those wounded in action is around 1 to 3.5, which would mean that the 64th SGMRB suffered up to 700 to 1,000 wounded in action. It is typical for Russian units that are so severely degraded during combat to be disbanded and survivors reallocated into other combat elements, but Krutov noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot disband the 64th SGMRB without embarrassment. Putin had awarded the brigade the honorary ”guards” designation on April 18, following the emergence of evidence that it had committed war crimes in Bucha. The brigade was rushed back into combat in eastern Ukraine after it had completed its withdrawal from around Moscow without much time to rest, refit, receive replacements, or recover. Speculation at the time ran that the Kremlin was eager to have the brigade destroyed in combat to avoid revelation of its war crimes.
Ukrainian intelligence warned that the Kremlin is setting conditions to launch an informational attack on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an effort to discredit him. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Russian Presidential Administration approved the creation of a new informational task force within the Russian special services responsible for establishing the fake “Zelensky Foundation.” The foundation will feature an unspecified falsified proposal targeting foreign aid organizations and will operate as a ”multi-level marketing” scheme likely focusing on recruitment in European countries. The GUR noted that the main concept behind the foundation is to distribute misinformation in the European media sphere. The GUR noted that as of August 10, Russian special services had created a site for the foundation, prepared social media fake screenshots and comments, and established a network of bloggers to promote the foundation. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar echoed similar concerns that Russia has intensified its information operations by spreading rumors in an effort to create friction between Ukrainian military and political officials.
www.criticalthreats.org/...
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has told officials to stop talking to reporters about Kyiv’s military tactics against Russia, saying such remarks were “frankly irresponsible”. The president’s comments come after news organisations cited unidentified officials saying Ukrainian forces were responsible for blasts that destroyed a Russian air base in Crimea on Tuesday, despite Kyiv declining to say whether it was behind the explosions.
The devastation at the Russian air base in Crimea suggests Kyiv may have obtained new long-range strike capability with potential to change the course of the war. The base is well beyond the range of advanced rockets that western countries acknowledge sending to Ukraine so far, with some western military experts saying the scale of the damage and the apparent precision of the strike suggested a powerful new capability with potentially important implications.
The UN has urged a demilitarised zone around Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as Russia and Ukraine trade accusations over more shelling of the plant on Thursday. Ukraine’s nuclear energy company said it had been shelled five times by Russian forces on Thursday, resulting in staff being unable to change shifts. However, Russian news agency Tass reported that the local Russian-imposed authorities in occupied Zaporizhzhia said the plant had been fired upon by Ukrainian forces. Ukraine’s Energoatom agency said the plant was operating normally .
The United States supports calls for a demilitarised zone around the Zaporizhzhia plant after fighting involving Russian and Ukrainian forces in the vicinity of the plant , a State Department spokesperson said on Thursday. “Fighting near a nuclear plant is dangerous and irresponsible and we continue to call on Russia to cease all military operations at or near Ukrainian nuclear facilities and return full control to Ukraine, and support Ukrainian calls for a demilitarised zone around the nuclear power plant,” the spokesperson said.
The British defence secretary has said Vladimir Putin is now unlikely to succeed in occupying Ukraine. Ben Wallace said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had “faltered” and was “starting to fail”, as he pledged more financial and military support to the eastern European nation’s defence. x “Russia is starting to fail in many areas. They have failed so far and are unlikely to ever succeed in occupying Ukraine,” Wallace said. — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 11, 2022
Russia has doubled the number of air strikes on Ukraine’s military positions and civilian infrastructure compared with the previous week , Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov said on Thursday. “The enemy’s planes and helicopters avoid flying into the range of our air defences, and therefore the accuracy of these strikes is low,” he told a news conference.
Ukraine aims to evacuate two thirds of residents from areas it controls in the eastern battleground region of Donetsk before winter, partly out of concern people won’t be able to stay warm amid war-damaged infrastructure, the deputy prime minister said on Thursday. The government plans to evacuate some 220,000 people out of around 350,000, including 52,000 children, Iryna Vereshchuk told a news conference.
www.theguardian.com/…
x The rashists conducted shelling, aiming at the areas of Maryinka, Netaylove, Avdiyivka, Opytne and Krasnohorivka settlements. They also carried out airstrikes near Avdiyivka and Maryinka. pic.twitter.com/PBtBG4gN2V — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) August 11, 2022
x Russians just boastngly posted this, showing Russian strikes with thermobaruc weaponry on apartment blocks in Pisky.
The last 2/3 of video is crazy. pic.twitter.com/stKvn4faII — Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) August 11, 2022
Ukraine said earlier this month that it had received another delivery of high-precision heavy weapons from Germany and the United States.
Moscow, which has accused the West of dragging out the conflict by giving Ukraine more arms, says it is conducting a “special military operation” in Ukraine aimed at safeguarding Russia’s security against NATO expansion.
Ukraine and its allies accuse Russia of launching an imperial-style war of aggression.
Aid to boost weapons production
The money pledged by the 26 countries will be used to supply existing weapons, missiles and ammunition, increase weapons production for Ukraine, train Ukrainian soldiers, and de-mine war-torn areas in Ukraine.
“We will continue to assist Ukraine in its military needs,” Bodskov told journalists at the end of the conference that brought together European defence ministers to discuss long-term support for the country’s defence against Russia’s invasion.
Defence ministers of Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic signalled willingness to expand productions of artillery systems, munitions, and other military equipments to Ukraine, Bodskov said.
The United Kingdom, which has already donated advanced weapons systems to Ukraine and given thousands of its troops military training, on Thursday pledged an additional 300 million euros ($309 million), including multiple-launch rocket systems and precision-guided M31A1 missiles that can hit targets up to 80km (50 miles) away.
www.aljazeera.com/...
x Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Is Essentially Not About NATO
https://t.co/XzE1nkdQZm — Keletkert (@keletkert) August 12, 2022
So why was 2014 so concerning to Russia that it chose to invade? Given Putin’s rhetoric about Euromaidan as a Western-backed plot, the most obvious conclusion is that he was afraid that regime change and democratization in Ukraine might reach – – or at least set an example for — Russian society and destabilize Putin’s increasingly consolidated authoritarianism. Research on the color revolutions and on the third wave of democratization in the region shows that this neighborhood effect was real. In other words, it’s not NATO at its doorsteps that’s so concerning to the Kremlin, but political competition, because it threatens authoritarian stability and introduces prospects of democratization.
www.justsecurity.org/...
x The renovation of Ukraine is more expensive than the Marshall Plan,” said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at a press conference in Berlin.
“This will be a great task, which can only be compared to –
https://t.co/ukckZFZv8l (Зеркало не
https://t.co/gBpv3tQ2Zx — AmplifyUkraine (@AmplifyUkraine) August 12, 2022
x “There is simply no other country in Europe for which the Russian invasion of Ukraine has generated the same fundamental and far-reaching policy shift.” @ischinger discusses the roots of German misgivings about greater involvement in Ukraine.
https://t.co/vZROyfA9rq — Foreign Affairs (@ForeignAffairs) August 12, 2022
x The Russian Communists aaked Putin to interfere in Ukraine after gaining some seats in Duma
https://t.co/QcUL7gObN6https://t.co/88EKid5Riv
https://t.co/mrBeoeUC2b — jukommerce (@jukommerce) August 12, 2022
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