(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .



Dobbs Decision Tilts NC Senate Race Toward Beasley [1]

[]

Date: 2022-08-09 17:37:10+00:00

Beasley leads among Independents. About 22% of voters consider themselves Independent, with Beasley leading among them 42% to 30%. She leads by 20% with college-educated voters.

Lots of voters have not come home yet. Beasley is currently polling only 75% among African Americans voters, with 17% undecided (by contrast, only 9% of white voters are undecided). For Budd, Trump voters are more likely to be undecided in the Senate race (2.5% of Biden voters to 8.8% of Trump voters). Each campaign will be working over the next ninety days to solidify its base.

Democrat Cheri Beasley leads Republican Ted Budd 46% to 42% with 12% undecided in the open US Senate seat in NC . This survey comes six weeks after the Dobbs decision that struck down abortion rights secured under Roe v. Wade. 49% of NC votes oppose the recent Dobbs decision (41% support), benefitting Beasley in the polls. The gender gap is large in this race, with Beasley leading among women 52% to 36%, and Budd leading among men 50% to 39%.

Biden Trails Trump in a Hypothetical Rematch

Biden’s base has eroded. He leads among women by only 7% but trails among men by more than 20%. Women are twice as likely to be undecided (14%). 15% of white voters are undecided about how they would vote in a presidential rematch. Fortunately, independents are evenly split but Biden has lost significant ground with younger voters—his lead over Trump is only 1%.

Trump currently leads Biden by 6% (45% to 39%) with almost 6% expressing support for a third-party candidate and 11% undecided. In 2020, Trump won NC by a razor-thin .3%. The US Senate race crosstabs suggest that those in the ‘third party” category are more Republican than Democrat (Budd leads 44% to 33%) and that undecideds in the Presidential rematch contain lots of unenthusiastic Democrats (Beasley leads 43% to 9%).

Drilling Down on the Dobbs Decision

Anti-abortion hard liners are a minority. Only 18% of North Carolina voters and 14% of North Carolina women voters believe abortion should be illegal in all cases. Even among senior citizens, only 21% say abortion should be illegal at all times (37% of seniors say abortion should be legal under any circumstances). Only one-third of voters support the Dobbs decision and 35% of Republicans believe abortion should be illegal in all circumstances.

Abortion rights supporters are more strident in their position: 72% of those who disagree with the Dobbs decision say abortion should be legal in all circumstances. A slight majority of women say abortion should be legal without restriction.

Opposition to the Dobbs decision is remarkably consistent across age groups. Opposition ranges from 47% to 51% (youngest voter group).

For undecided voters in the US Senate race, twice as many favor unrestricted abortion access as support a universal abortion ban (38% to 19%). This lean helps Beasley.

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://chismstrategies.com/dobbs-decision-tilts-nc-senate-race-toward-beasley/

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/

You are viewing proxied material from magical.fish. The copyright of proxied material belongs to its original authors. Any comments or complaints in relation to proxied material should be directed to the original authors of the content concerned. Please see the disclaimer for more details.