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Ukraine Invasion Day 160: Russia could be “about to run out of steam” [1]

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Date: 2022-08-01

“Henceforth every attempt Ukraine makes to take back territory will be a major victory.”

….After months of being on the defensive, they are anxious to get the Russians responding to their initiatives, especially while Moscow’s general staff is still working out how to adapt to the damage being done to their supply lines and command chains. Richard Moore, the head of UK’s MI6, has expressed the view that Russia could be “about to run out of steam” in Ukraine, as they find it increasingly “difficult to supply manpower material over the next few weeks. They will have to pause some way and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.” He concluded that the “Ukrainians may have a window in which they can take advantage of what may turn out to be only a temporary Russian weakness”.

It is because of this potentially short window that the counter-offensive now appears to have begun. The Kherson regional military governor has claimed that Ukrainian troops have liberated 44 towns and villages along the border regions, about 15 per cent of the territory, and are now about 50 kilometres from Kherson city at their closest point. Another local official has spoken of how Kherson will be free by the end of September, although Zelensky has been more careful, promising only step-by-step progress. Yet another military official has compared the Ukrainian campaign to “waves”. “Right now we’re making small waves and creating conditions to make bigger ones.”

How might this work? The only sure way to dislodge Russian troops from established positions is to mount a large-scale counter-offensive, following up artillery fire with assaults combining armour and infantry. This may become necessary, although for the moment Ukrainian brigades are insufficiently equipped or prepared to mount such an attack with confidence. But while it might be difficult to push the Russians out using overwhelming force, it is not necessarily the only Ukrainian strategy. Alternatively it might be possible to render the Russian positions so uncomfortable that forces have to be withdrawn if they are to be preserved. Illia Ponomarenko of the Kyiv Independent has outlined a likely Ukrainian plan:

“As part of a counter-offensive operation, Ukraine would likely seek to block the occupied city, cut the Russian garrison off from supplies and reinforcements, and hold the blockade until Russia surrenders.”

He noted that the region’s front line, at over 200km, is too long for the Russians to secure completely, even with reinforcements. Instead they have, according to one expert Ponomarenko spoke to, “strong points in certain populated areas or road junctions”. Their ability to reinforce vulnerable units in a timely fashion is being limited by the continual targeting of logistical systems and command posts. Capable commanders are the scarcest military resource and they matter even more in a hierarchical system such as Russia’s. Most importantly they will need to worry about their forces getting trapped. Just as the big challenge for the Ukrainians in the battle for Luhansk was to know when to evacuate their forces before they were surrounded, this could now be the challenge for the Russians. Conspicuous attacks on the key routes in and out of the region – the Antonivsky bridges (hit again on 26 July) and a bridge by the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, both over the Dnieper river, reduce the Russians’ ability to move heavy equipment in and out, and put them on notice that the Ukrainians can cut off their lines of escape.

www.newstatesman.com/...

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/1/2113839/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-160-Russia-could-be-about-to-run-out-of-steam

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