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Weekly DataDump from Senate Swing State Canvassing in AZ, FL, GA, NV, NC, OH, PA & WI [1]
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Date: 2022-07-30
Since March 5, Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors (as weather and primaries permitted) in Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin — all critical states that will determine the Senate majority for the next two years. And nothing is more important this election than maintaining a Democratic Senate and even expanding upon it. This week, we had to cancel canvassing in Phoenix and Las Vegas, but continued canvasses in Tucson and Reno, because of Heat Warnings. Temperatures over a 100 degrees in the morning doesn’t make for productive outings.
And still, 2,323 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday — not as good as before July 4th, but our best number since. These volunteers knocked on 168,281 doors, and had conversations with 12,482 voters. Weather clearly effects these numbers. So states where volunteers are walking in the 90s have much lower response rates; states where weather is cooler obviously have higher response rates. Which is expected in the summer.
We walk with an Issues Canvass, where we ask voters what they think and whether they had a message for their elected officials. 7,643 voters answered questions from the survey, in whole or in part.
Almost everyone who responded answered at least two of the questions (‘do you have a message for your Congress critter’ and ‘what is their opinion of the job Biden is doing’ are popular questions). 4,247 voters (55.5%) told us that they have a favorable opinion of the job Biden was doing as president. 2,537 voters (33%) didn’t express an opinion of the president at this time. 859 voters (11%) said they had a negative impression of the job the president was doing last Saturday. Remember that we are knocking on doors of Democrats and Independent or Non-Affiliated households. While it is not impossible to reach a Republican through our targeting of these households, we exclude GOP households by and large.
While we are not tracking the “what single issue will you vote on” responses, these are entered into VAN (the Democratic database — which happens to be our biggest expense each month), just like all this data. But it is (probably) the most important piece of information for Democratic candidates who access VAN in the Fall.
The Economy was the Top Issue this week, according to the voters we talked to last Saturday. Concerns over Jobs (prospect of Recession) was the top response in North Carolina and Summer Worries (the Heat, Global Warming, Water) was Number 1 in Nevada this week.
Concerns about Health Care Costs was the Number 2 Issue in Florida, Arizona, Ohio and Wisconsin. The Economy was Second in North Carolina and Nevada; Concerns about the upcoming Election was second in Pennsylvania. The Number Three Issues were Typical, except for Concern over Schools, which was third in Ohio and Nevada.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First Round of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of the communities most effected (the intended targets or victims) of these new voter suppression laws.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that repeated face to face interactions are critical. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors — and we didn’t register new voters (while Republicans dud). We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be cured.
We ask voters who talk to us whether they approve or disapprove of the job the president, their incumbent Senator (up for election this year), and how their governor (if they are up for election this year) is doing. After the primaries, we ask about the Democratic Senate and Gubernatorial nominees.
Florida (top) & Arizona graphs
In Florida, 52% of the voters we talked to who responded had a favorable impression of President Biden but only 16% had a favorable impression of Senator Rubio. 4% had a favorable impression of Governor DeSantis last week. Remember that we are only knocking on doors of households with Democratic and Independent voters in Central Florida; we don’t include households that only have Republicans in them. 34% of Florida voters we talked to disapproved of the job Rubio has done in the Senate and 51% disapproved the job by DeSantis in Central Florida.
In Arizona, 53% of the voters we talked to responded they had a favorable impression of President Biden and 75% had a favorable impression of Senator Kelly (an uptick for both). 16% of them had a favorable impression of their retiring Governor Doug Ducey while 35% had an unfavorable view.
Georgia (top) & North Carolina graphs
In Georgia, 63% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 80% approved of the job Senator Warnock was doing. Only 13% approved of the job Governor Kemp was doing. 65% of the voters we talked to last week had a favorable impression of Stacey Abrams. Again, we are talking to households identified in the VAN model as Democratic and Independent voters (Georgia doesn’t have party registration). We do our best to eliminate Republican households although we do get mixed addresses, where someone is a Democrat (usually a female or younger voter) and someone is a Republican (usually male).
In North Carolina, 53% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 57% of the voters we talked to approved of the job Governor Cooper was doing. Since the Democratic nominee for Senate is now official, we also asked about Cheri Beasley, the former Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court. 75% of the people we talked to had a favorable impression of Justice Beasley.
Nevada (top) & Pennsylvania graphs
In Nevada, 55% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 48% had a favorable impression of the job Senator Cortez Masto was doing. 48% of voters approved of the job Governor Sisolak was doing. Both them had higher numbers during the time Nevada had their primary, so we can assume benefited from increased advertising and name recognition. Whereas 13% of the Nevada voters we talked to had a negative impression of President Biden (the week’s high), only 11% had a negative view of the senator and 9% had a negative view of the governor.
In Pennsylvania, 55% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 66% had a favorable opinion of John Fetterman, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate. People are eager to see him back on the campaign trail. 71% had a favorable view of Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania governor.
Wisconsin (top) & Ohio graphs
In Wisconsin, 55% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing, 12% disapproved. 3% approved of the job Senator Johnson was doing while 53% of the voters we talked to disapproved of their senator. As you can see, the approval numbers for Johnson have been remarkably consistent. In fact, his numbers have been the most consistent of any candidate we have asked about. 49% approved of the job that Governor Evers was doing; 11% disapproved.
In Ohio, 52% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 13% disapproved. 78% approved of the job Tim Ryan was doing. 29% approved of the job that Governor DeWine was doing. 16% of the Democratic and Independent voters we talked to last Saturday disapproved of the job Biden and (separately) DeWine was doing. I find it interested that the approval numbers for Ryan and DeWine appear synced.
Approval of the Democratic Party
Each week, we ask the voters we talk to if they approve or disapprove of the Democratic Party. The point here is to identify strong partisans and weaker independents. As you can see, voter responses for this is all over the place, what I would call a roller coaster. Only 5 percentage points now separate Biden’s approval ratings in Nevada (week’s low) and Florida (week’s high). Remember that we don’t knock on doors of Republican households even though there are definitely doors of mixed party households we canvass. But we are getting interesting feedback from voters, even from those whom seem inclined to support the president.
Disapproval of the Democratic Party
The Disapproval rate is also pretty wavy. There is a 7 percentage point divergence between Pennsylvania (week’s low) and Arizona and Ohio (week’s high). What is interesting now (this didn’t used to be the case) that you can really identify Fox viewers with this question, not from their answers, per se, but from their response to the question. Our volunteers ask about the Democratic party, but we do have voters who will seek to correct them, saying something like, “You mean the Democrat Party?” We don’t correct them (if because it isn’t a discussion worth wasting time over), but many of the volunteers will make a note of it. And it is interesting because we see this more in Ohio than in, say, Arizona. So if you see Tim Ryan advertising on Fox News (sic), you will understand why.
121 people filled out new voter registration forms for their states during last weekend’s canvassing. Another 563 voters updated their address, as required by HAVA. We differentiate between the two because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they are also getting robocalls thanking them for registering. Compare this graphic with the first one (above). You can see that the number of voters registered is not a function of the number of volunteers present or doors knocked. Clearly, they help, but there’s no guarantee that more doors equals more voters registered. Even though registering voters is a primary rationale behind early canvassing, it is not the only one. Just wanted to point that out.
We collected 689 Constituent Service Request Forms this week. In general, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the CSR and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We continue to walk with Incident Reports, and we ask people who say they are concerned about the upcoming general election if they want to fill one out. Last Saturday, 23 voters filled them out.
We pass along Incident Reports to the Lawyer’s Committee for Civil Rights and NALEO (those that correspond to Hispanic precincts), and send copies to state Democratic Party committees. But our purpose is to combine this information with the two independent databases of voting incidents to look for patterns before the election and use that information for warning district, state and U.S. attorneys’ offices that we could see those patterns resurface on election day. We will also use it to target Election Day Protection activity.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions in some states, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!
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