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The Bell Curve Theory of Democracy [1]

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Date: 2022-07-29

68.8% of voters over 18 voted in 2020.

My bell curve theory of Democracy demonstrates democracy works better the closer you get to 100% voter turnout. If voter turnout is between -1 standard deviation and +1 standard deviation you should get a result that represents 68.2% on the voters. That’s pretty democratic.



Voting records indicate that in the 2020 Presidential election 68.8% of voters over 18 voted, for a total of 158.4 million voters. That was the highest voter turnout in the 21st century. That would put us at the center of the bell curve, a fair turnout. But 68.8% is not 100%, and we have room for improvement.



However, the lower the voter turnout, the flatter the top of the bell curve will be, and it will look something like a plateau resulting in the extremes having a greater influence on the outcome of the election. The lower the turnout is, the more it will resemble a mesa with the extremes having an even greater effect on the results.

Thus, we should be striving for high voter turnout if we want our Democracy to function at its best. The higher turnout the better. That’s one reason why voting laws that inhibit voter turnout are anti-democratic, and we should do everything possible to enact voting laws that promote voter turnout, not inhibit turnout.

The idea of a mandatory voting has been suggested by some. Also, designating Election Day a national holiday is another option. I would be in favor of both. I understand that Australia has mandatory voting, but with only a nominal fine for not voting. Other countries may have such laws as well.

I have heard people say Americans don’t like mandates (consider vaccination for covid), and would reject mandatory voting laws. In response, I have suggested that if we don’t want to have mandatory voting laws, perhaps we could have laws that incentivize voting. Like, for instance, a law that would give you a small tax rebate ($100), if you check a box on your income tax return certifying that you voted in the last federal election. Maybe even an extra $100 if indicate on your state tax return that you voted in the last state election.

It is sometimes argued that voting is a right or a privilege, not an obligation.

I happen to think it should be an obligation, part of your civic duty as a citizen. What do you think? How can we increase voter turnout.



Unfortunately, it is probably too late to pass new voting laws for this upcoming election, but there will be many more elections in the years to come.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/29/2113412/-The-Bell-Curve-Theory-of-Democracy

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