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GOP internal poll has Norcross ahead by 5 points in NJ-1 [1]
['David Wildstein']
Date: 2022-07-25 19:38:39+00:00
Republicans are touting an internal poll in one of the state’s most heavily-Democratic congressional districts that shows their candidate, Claire H. Gustafson, trailing Rep. Donald Norcross (D-Camden) by just five percentage points.
The poll, conducted by Grassroots Targeting, a Republican firm, shows Norcross leading Gustafson by five percentage points, 49%-44%, among likely 2022 general election voters in New Jersey’s 1st district.
Those numbers closely mirrors favorables for President Joe Biden, who is at 49%-43% in a South Jersey House district Republicans have not won since 1972.
Norcross has favorables of 42%-41%, while 83% of likely voters have never heard of Gustafson, a former Collingswood school board member who has approvals of 9%-8%. This is a rematch for Gustafson, who received 37.5% against Norcross in 2020.
The head-to-head numbers improve for Gustafson when Norcross and Biden are linked together on issues concerning inflation, gas prices, and domestic energy production. Pushed in that direction, likely voters put the NJ-1 race into a statistical dead heat.
But despite a move toward Republicans on economic issues, the 1st district remains more aligned with Norcross on guns. More than six out of ten likely voters (61%) say they want “more restrictions and laws on the purchase of firearms,” while 31% say “current gun laws are sufficient and more restrictions would be excessive.”
Asked if they would “support or oppose a federal law that would permit legal abortion up until the moment of birth,” 51.5% of likely voters said they would oppose such the law and 35% indicated they would support it.
The GOP poll also included tilted questions on transgender policies, critical race theory and vote-by-mail ballots.
The 1st district has 151,082 more registered Democrats than Republicans, 45%-19%. Biden won the district with 62% and Gov. Phil Murphy carried it with 57% last year.
Murphy’ favorables are at 53%-38% in the Camden-Gloucester district.
Gustafson is still a longshot in a race against Norcross, who was the president of the South Jersey AFL-CIO and a state senator when he was elected to Congress in 2012. He is the brother of George E. Norcross III, one of the most powerful insiders in New Jersey politics.
As of March 31, Gustafson had raised just $22,587. She did not file pre-primary or second quarter campaign reports with the Federal Election Commission.
Norcross has already spent over $1 million on his re-election and has more than $2.5 million cash-on-hand.
In a way, the Gustafson poll validates survey data gathered by Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg last month at the request of George Norcross. As a result of that polling, South Jersey Democrats are already preparing to distance themselves from Biden and the Democratic-controlled Congress.
But any tightening of the congressional race bodes well for Republicans in Gloucester County, where control of the Board of Commissioners and the county clerk’s office are up this year. The GOP flipped two county commissioner seats and the sheriff post in 2021 in an election marked by one of the biggest political upsets in New Jersey history: the defeat of Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-West Deptford) by an unknown Republican with little money, State Sen. Edward Durr (R-Swedesboro).
Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute of New Jersey Politics at Rider University, says he’s not surprised by the generic improvement by Republicans that he called “big sea changes.”
“It’s a continuation of what we saw in Sweeney’s race last year. This is a part of the state that is changing politically,” Rasmussen said. “The quicksand is changing very quickly under everyone’s feet down there.”
The Norcross campaign declined comment on the poll.
Grassroots Targeting is run by Blaise Hazelwood, a former Republican National Committee political director. The survey, which was in the field from July 13-19, has a sample size of 625 likely voters and a margin of error of +/- 4%.
Editor’s note: the New Jersey Globe follows Matt Friedman’s rules on the publishing of internal polls. The complete questionnaire and full poll results were reviewed by the New Jersey Globe.
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[1] Url:
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/gop-internal-poll-has-norcross-lead-by-5-points-in-nj-1/
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