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Ukraine Invasion Day 150: and the Mearsheimer argument for the cause of the war lingers [1]

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Date: 2022-07-22

Attacks and counterattacks continue with Russia stalled but still wreaking havoc with civilian targets. Below is a discussion of the offensive realism argument that not a few people believe is the “cause” of the war.

Key Takeaways

x As we remember, XXI century warfare consists of more than just field battles. On the battlefield, Putin's army has shown everything it can do. And it didn’t impress. The only tactic Russia now has left at its disposal is the scorched earth tactic, based on artillery superiority — Leonid Volkov (@leonidvolkov) July 17, 2022

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)

Russian forces did not make any confirmed territorial advances on the Kharkiv Axis on July 22. The Derhachi City Council reported that Ukrainian forces engaged in positional battles near Tsupivka, Dementiivka, Velyki Prokhody, and in the Kozacha Lopan-Zolochiv direction north of Kharkiv City. [14] Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that a Russian reconnaissance group conducted a ground assault near Udy, 5 km from the Russian border northwest of Kharkiv City, but ISW cannot currently verify this claim. [15] Russian forces conducted an airstrike on Verkhnii Saltiv, 35 km east of Kharkiv City along the Siverskyi Donets River. [16] Russian forces also continued shelling Kharkiv City and the surrounding settlements. [17]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks toward Slovyansk and shelled settlements to the southeast and southwest of Izyum on July 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces shelled Dolyna, Dibrovne, Bohorodychne, Adamivka, Mykilske, Kurulka, Mazanivka, and Krestychne, all to the northwest of Slovyansk, and conducted aerial reconnaissance north of Barvinkove in Velyka Komyshuvakha. [6]

Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground attacks east of Siversk on July 22. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces tried and failed to advance westward of Verkhnokamyanka to Verkhnokamyanske and continued to fight southeast of Siversk in Ivano-Darivka. [7] Russian forces also conducted air and artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in settlements from the northeast to southeast of Siversk. [8]

Russian forces conducted ground attacks toward Bakhmut from positions to the east and continued limited ground assaults south of Bakhmut on July 22. Russian sources claimed that troops of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) occupied the southern part of Pokrovske, less than 5 km east of Bakhmut. [9] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops are also attempting to advance towards Bakhmut from the Stryapivka-Soledar area to the northeast and the territory of the Vuhledar Power Plant to the south. [10] Russian forces continued artillery strikes directly on Bakhmut and surrounding settlements to support ongoing ground offensives. [11]

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack directly northwest of Donetsk City on July 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attempt to advance from Vesele to Vodyane, about 10km northwest of the western outskirts of Donetsk City. [12] Russian forces continued to fire at Ukrainian positions along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line of contact and in the direction of the Zaporizhia Oblast border. [13]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)

Russian forces conducted limited unsuccessful offensives in Kherson Oblast on July 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance in the Mala Seidemynukha-Andriivka and Davydiv Brid-Bilohirka directions, both near the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border. [18] Russian Telegram Channel Rybar confirmed that Ukrainian forces still maintain a bridgehead on the Inhulets River near Lozove on July 22. [19] Russian forces continued focusing on defending previously occupied positions and preventing Ukrainian offensive actions along the Southern Axis and continued conducting artillery strikes on settlements along the Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast borders and settlements on the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline. [20] Russian forces launched missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Mykolaiv City and Apostolove in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and airstrikes near Potomkyne and Prechystivka. [21] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported on July 22 that Russian forces are mining roads and the banks of the Inhulets River in the areas bordering Snihurivka and Zelenodolsk, suggesting that Russian forces may be preparing for a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in the area. [22]

Ukrainian forces are continuing to threaten Russian logistics strongholds along the Southern Axis. Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed five Russian strongholds and two Russian ammunition depots in the Zelendolsk and Skadovsk areas of Kherson Oblast on July 22. [23] However, ISW cannot confirm rumors about a Ukrainian encirclement of Russian forces near Vysokopillya as of this publication. [24]

Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) published footage on July 22 of the July 20 Ukrainian strike on Russian military assets at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast. [25] GUR’s footage shows strikes on a Russian BM-21 Grad and anti-air transport among the NPP's water coolers and Russian personnel tents roughly 350 meters from the nearest nuclear cell block. [26] GUR reported that the strikes killed three Russian personnel and wounded 12 others. [27] Images of the strikes’ aftermath show devastation at the former tent site with no damage to the surrounding NPP facilities. [28]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x Kirby says Biden signed the 16th drawdown of security assistance to Ukraine, for a $270 million package that includes 4 more HIMARs, 36,000 rounds of ammunition for Howitzers. DoD will announce today will provide Ukraine up to 500 Phoenix ghost tactical unmanned aerial systems. — Laura Rozen (@lrozen) July 22, 2022

x Kirby: We remain deeply concerned by Turkey’s threat to conduct a military operation in northern Syria. We continue to believe that such an operation would be destabilizing. &it could put at risk the civilian population there as well as quite frankly the coalition campaign v ISIS — Laura Rozen (@lrozen) July 22, 2022

x ICYMI — “We need weapons fast, and in sufficient quantities,” Ukrainian Defense Minister @oleksiireznikov told @ACEurasia's @JohnEdHerbst on Tuesday.



“Russia can definitely be defeated,” he said.



Read more about the #ACFrontPage event this week: https://t.co/ICZyH06o0b — Atlantic Council (@AtlanticCouncil) July 22, 2022

x I know we tend to focus on HIMARS or other high-end weapon deliveries, but the sustained deliveries of large batches of 152mm and 155mm artillery ammunition is arguably the most important metric of defense support from NATO to watch. pic.twitter.com/TcCkyvZaoB — Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 22, 2022

x On this battlefront, Russian terrorist forces shelled Hrushuvakha, Dolyna, Krasnopillya, Dibrivne, Mazanivka, Protopopivka, Chepil', Velyky Komyshuvakha, Nortsivka, Bohorodychne, Virnopillya, Karnaukhivka, Verkhnokam'yans'kye, Starodubivka, Pyskunivka, Sivers'k, (more)… pic.twitter.com/4GNdOGqXLj — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) July 23, 2022

x In easternmost Donetsk region, the Russian fascist invaders are attempting to advance in the direction of Verkhnokam'yans'ke, Ivano-Dar'ivka, Pokrovs'ke and the Vuhlehirs'ka power plant. They have no success. Ukrainian defenders repulsed these attacks and drove the rashists back. pic.twitter.com/chBNalOUJ7 — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) July 22, 2022

[END]
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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/22/2103599/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-150-and-the-Mearsheimer-argument-for-the-cause-of-the-war-lingers

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