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Starting with observations on the growing leftward lean in the CNN polls [1]
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Date: 2022-07-20
I have recently, but pretty long recently, been beginning to believe in a strong “Dem undercount” as key issues come to the surface for more and more voters. As I noted in another diary on this topic by Yosef 52, here:
www.dailykos.com/...
(with key additions):
It has recently been my view that several things are going to happen between now and the election that will push pluralities much further to the left.
1) More horror stories about children made pregnant by rape or incest forced to carry to term.
2) More horror stories about women suffering from ectopic pregnancies or experiencing other miscarriages being jailed as if they had an illegal abortion. New horror stories about abortion and other rights of women (e.g., contraception) that most of us don’t even want to think about until they occur.
3) More understanding of the Republican desire to gut all entitlements. Rick Scott did Americans a vast favor by letting this cat out of the bag.
4) More evidence that climate change is already reaching very dangerous levels in the US. This has been ignored by many voters so far, but its importance, and SCOTUS’ desire to prevent doing anything about it, will become much more important as we experience vast fires, droughts, hurricanes with huge floods, other floods, etc.
5) More Republicans doing a whole bunch of stupid stuff that turns off huge cohorts of voters, from women to people of color to LBTGQ+ and their supporters, to older voters. All of this leads to powerful GOTV activity. (I think it wins us Texas, with Abbot unable to behave properly.)
6) Massive marches against Rethug ideology.
7) More awful behavior by the now-fascist SCOTUS, that drives more voters to recognize the need for changes on the filibuster and the makeup of the bench.
7) Many Rethug candidates shunning debates, but getting pushed, hard, at town halls and other live activities and events.
8) Pundits and other parts of media remaining vastly behind the curve in terms of the growing leftward lean among voters. Remember 2018, when only one major pundit properly predicted the size of the Dem sweep in the House. (Rachel Biticofer.)
9) More fabulous vulnerability among Rethug candidates at various levels, but especially at the Senate level, where we could realistically add as many as 5 seats (Wisc., Pa., NC, Ohio, even Fla.) while holding all of our own incumbents. The chance to win major Gubernatorial races, such as Texas and Georgia, grows with these patterns.
10) Reduced importance of inflation as a Rethug tool as gas prices decline, and as it becomes more obvious that inflation is just as bad or worse in most of Europe (so it isn’t Biden’s “fault.”) Alonside this, the continuous strengthening of labor that Rethugs and SCOTUS try to disrupt.
11) Vastly more awareness of Trump’s role in attempting to overthow the validly elected government. (See WaPo below).
And on and on. My bottom line: the trends shown above by Yosef 52 about the CNN poll are only in their early stages. Pundits who ignore them are incompetent or lazy.
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/20/2111468/-Starting-with-observations-on-the-growing-leftward-lean-in-the-CNN-polls
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