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Ukraine Invasion Day 146: attacks and counterattacks continue [1]
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Date: 2022-07-18
Russian bombardment continues across Ukraine, Sumy in the north, Mykolaiv and Odesa in the south. Russians reportedly shot one of their own bombers down, and the UN releases their count of civilian casualties.
Ukraine's defense minister gets 'very good news' in conversation with US counterpart. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that on July 18 U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin gave him "some very good news" that he will reveal soon
https://t.co/vceyu2nDNn
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued to conduct air and artillery strikes to the northwest of Slovyansk and may be preparing to resume offensive operations southwest of Izyum towards Barvinkove on July 18. [8] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces tried and failed to advance around Brazhivka and Dmytrivka-both 20km northeast of Barvinkove along the T2122 highway. [9] Russian forces additionally conducted artillery strikes around Barvinkove in the areas of Karnaukhivka and Virnopillya. [10] As ISW has previously assessed, Russian forces may be attempting to set conditions for advances southwest of Izyum to complement advances towards Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum or to open a new advance towards Kramatorsk, although Russian troops are unlikely to successfully advance on Kramatorsk from Barvinkove due to the complicated cross-country terrain in this area. Russian forces also continued strikes directly on Slovyansk and on settlements to the east of Slovyansk, including Tetyanivka, Donetske, and Starodubivka. [11]
Russian forces conducted a series of unsuccessful ground attacks to the east of Siversk on July 18. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attempts to improve their tactical positions in the directions of Bilohorivka-Hryhorivka, Zolotarivka-Verkhnokamyanske, Zolotarivka-Serebryanka, and Verkhnokamyanka-Verkhnokamyanske. [12] Russian forces also conducted limited ground attacks near Spirne, about 10km southeast of Siversk and continued to strike Ukrainian positions around Siversk. [13]
Russian forces continued localized ground assaults south of Bakhmut on July 18. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to advance along the Myronivka-Vuhledar Power Plant line, about 20km southeast of Bakhmut. [14] Russian forces conducted additional limited assaults in Novoluhanske and Semihirya, also south of Bakhmut, but did not make any confirmed advances. [15] Russian forces continued artillery, missile, and airstrikes around Bakhmut and struck Pokrovske, Vesela Dolyna, Kurdyumivka, Travneve, Shumy, and Soledar. [16]
Russian forces intensified ground attacks towards Avdiivka on July 18. [17] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted to improve their tactical position around Verkhnotoretske and Kamyanka, both to the northeast of Avdiivka. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) representative Eduard Basurin claimed that DNR forces have completely blocked the road from Avdiivka to Konstyantynivka (north of Avdiivka) and have surrounded Avdiivka in a semicircle. [18] Former Russian militant commander and Russian nationalist miblogger Igor Girkin noted that despite recent claims of success around Avdiivka, DNR units in this area are severely degraded and unlikely to make substantial gains under the threat of heavy Ukrainian artillery fire. [19]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces focused on preventing Ukrainian forces from advancing to the Russian border in Kharkiv Oblast on July 18. [20] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to carry out air, artillery, and missile strikes on civilian and military infrastructure in Kharkiv City and settlements to the north, northeast, east, and southeast. [21] Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that Russian forces concentrated on striking Ukrainian positions in Chuhuiv on July 17-18. [22] The Ukrainian Main Military Directorate (GUR) reported that the “Cedar” (“Кедр”) Ukrainian GUR Reconnaissance unit conducted a special operation in Dementiivka, north of Kharkiv City on July 18. [23] The GUR stated that Ukrainian forces conducted a limited, localized counteroffensive that pushed “a large unit” of Russian forces out of Dementiivka. [24]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces focused on maintaining occupied lines and preventing a Ukrainian offensive along the Southern Axis on July 18. [25] Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Ukrainian positions along the Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast borders and settlements on the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline. [26] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted mutual shelling strikes along the contact line along the Southern Axis. [27] Kherson Oblast officials reported that Russian forces continued changing their concentration areas to densely populated areas in Kherson Oblast in an effort to deter Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions. [28]
Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed on July 18 that Ukrainian forces are increasing groupings of forces and equipment near the contact line in the Mykolaiv-Kryvyi Rih direction in preparation for an offensive on Kherson Oblast. [29] Rybar also claimed that Ukrainian forces set up a pontoon bridge in preparation for a possible offensive across the Inhulets River near Arhanhelske, Kherson Oblast. [30]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x The Russian fascist invaders shelled Chepil', Karnaukhivka, Virnopillya, Bohorodychne, Dibrivne, Dolyna, Krasnopillya, Adamivka, Tetyanivka, Donets'ke, Dronivka, Hryhorivka, Starodubivka, Sivers'k, Mykolayivka, Vyimka, Berestove, Bilohorivka, Pokrovs'ke, Vesela Dolyna, (more)… pic.twitter.com/zU1CHAJ1rS — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) July 18, 2022
x (continued)… The rashists shelled Kurdyumivka, Travneve and Shumy.
They carried out airstrikes near Bohorodychne, Verkhnokam'yans'ke. Berestove and Pokrovs'ke.
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational information as of 18:00 on 18 July 2022 pic.twitter.com/B4rmxj2iYW — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) July 18, 2022
A $36 million Russian Su-34 bomber was reportedly shot down by Russia’s own forces over Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, Ukrainian media outlets claimed on Monday. The jet was reportedly downed near Alchevsk, a city in the Luhansk region
x Russian AD would never shoot down a friendly aircraft trying to hit HIMARS :P pic.twitter.com/fHf2Xd7oEr — Lost Weapons (@LostWeapons) July 18, 2022
x Some Russian invasion units used maps created in 1969, which lacked modern objects.
Interestingly, the map, found in Kharkiv Obl, was "updated" - the Russian-Ukrainian border was marked by a line drawn by pen, Ukraine's Security Service said
https://t.co/uF7kOv6QHk pic.twitter.com/F8Jp58WK4F — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) July 19, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s likely effort to shield ethnic Russians from high levels of mobilization may trigger resistance in some of the ethnic enclaves that seem to be disproportionately bearing the burden of war. Russian Telegram channel Rybar released a report on July 18 about the Novaya Tuva movement- an anti-war organization comprised of activists from the Tuvan ethnic minority enclave. [5] Rybar accused the Novaya Tuva movement of disseminating anti-war propaganda and inciting ethnic discord within the Russian Federation. This report is noteworthy in the context of the recent increase in the formation of regionally-based volunteer battalions through Russia, many of which fall along distinct ethnic lines. [6] ISW and others have previously noted the prevalence of non-ethnic Russian battalions fighting in Ukraine, which include troops from Chechnya, South Ossetia, Tuva, Tartarstan, Bashkortostan, Chuvashia, and others. [7] These indicators suggest that Putin may be unwilling to conduct general mobilization in part due to a reluctance to mobilize large numbers of ethnic Russians. Rybar’s post as well as previous reporting on a "Free Buryatia” anti-war group bring to the fore the risk that Putin’s apparent desire to have non-Russians bear the brunt of the war at this stage could create domestic tension in these regions.
www.understandingwar.org/...
x Who is winning the war in Ukraine? Putin's forces conquered 20 per cent of the nation, but a chilly deadline looms - ABC News
"Ukraine must also find the firepower to make a difficult switch from "defender to offender" to regain lost territory."
https://t.co/w3n7xm1Khy — Uvik_Kontra_ 💙💛🌻 (@Ana__33311) July 19, 2022
Defence analysts paint several different scenarios for how this period of intense fighting might conclude, but imagining what "victory" for either side might look like is more complicated.
"This is not the war which can be ended in several weeks," said Maria Zolkina, a defence analyst from the Kyiv-based think tank, Democratic Initiatives Foundation.
"The best-case scenario is that the hot phase will be concluded by the end of this year … but this is a very optimistic scenario."
"I always pay attention not to specific battles, but to the balance of powers and here, Ukraine is absolutely capable of winning."
For Russia, the effect of sanctions will continue to bite, military losses will mount and morale issues could deepen, while Ukraine expects to be bolstered by Western weapons over the next few months, she said.
"This balance will be more in favour of Ukraine with every coming month."
www.abc.net.au/...
x The four months until northern winter may be the most ferocious and bloody of the war in Ukraine so far. There will be more surprises and losses on both sides. My analysis of the the next phase of Russia’s invasion of #Ukraine.
https://t.co/oEpcylsMex — Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) July 19, 2022
x The unusual anti-tank mine Ukraine is using to target Russian armour. pic.twitter.com/gFHRvl2weO — UkraineChronicles (@UkraineChro) July 19, 2022
x Groups of partisans are waging a bloody campaign in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine
https://t.co/D8xA59Obu3 — Task & Purpose (@TaskandPurpose) July 19, 2022
From 4 a.m. on 24 February 2022, when the Russian Federation’s armed attack against Ukraine started, to 24:00 midnight on 11 July 2022 (local time), the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 11,544 civilian casualties in the country: 5,024 killed and 6,520 injured. This included:
a total of 5,024 killed (1,905 men, 1,316 women, 141 girls, and 161 boys, as well as 41 children and 1,460 adults whose sex is yet unknown)
a total of 6,520 injured (1,319 men, 962 women, 144 girls, and 202 boys, as well as 187 children and 3,706 adults whose sex is yet unknown) o In Donetsk and Luhansk regions: 6,535 casualties (2,951 killed and 3,584 injured)
On Government-controlled territory: 5,433 casualties (2,730 killed and 2,703 injured)
On territory controlled by Russian armed forces and affiliated armed groups: 1,102 casualties (221 killed and 881 injured) o In other regions of Ukraine (the city of Kyiv, and Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Rivne, Vinnytsia, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk and Zhytomyr regions), which were under Government control when casualties occurred: 5,009 casualties (2,073 killed and 2,936 injured)
reliefweb.int/...
x Russian Court Fines Google $373 Million For 'Fake' Ukraine Invasion News Published On Youtube
https://t.co/pI74Tv0jwN — Lavette Simmonds (@LavetteSimmonds) July 19, 2022
x We’re now delivering 1.7 million meals a day in Ukraine…so how does @WCKitchen reach the furthest & isolated areas like villages around Chernihiv near the Russian border? Any way we can… 🚜 Sometimes tractors pull Russian tanks—other times WCK food! #FoodFighters 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/0d0uDzlkOW — José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) July 18, 2022
x 18 Republicans Vote Against NATO Bids for Sweden and Finland *
* these 18 Republicans are your “core” Russian “familiars”, the lowest form of human life, next to “traitors”.
A “familiar” is a person who favors and helps their own nation’s worst enemy.
https://t.co/xjojs6JQjc — 🇺🇦TrumpRussiaTies Mapping Project (@TrumpRussiaTies) July 19, 2022
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