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Democratic wins in Harris County (Houston) may not be a done, double-digit-margin deal [1]

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Date: 2022-07-14

Although the opposition party is usually favoured during US federal midterm elections, there are signs that it’s possible for Democrats to outperform expectations thanks to the end of Roe and the Republican Party nominating candidates such as Mehmet Oz (R-PA) and Herschel Walker (R-GA).

However, people need to take a look at Texas, particularly Harris County, home of the city of Houston. This year, many countywide seats, such as the County Judge (an equivalent to a County Comissioner found in many other states), are up for election. Lina Hidalgo (D) is running for re-election against Alexandra del Moral Mealer (R). Although there has been little polling on countywide races in Harris County, a poll was indeed conducted by YouGov (rated B+ by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight) in partnership with the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston; between 27 June and 7 July, 321 respondents, which included interviews in both English and Spanish, were sampled. In that poll, Hidalgo led del Moral Mealer with a 1-point margin. It is already worrisome that there’s even a chance Democrats are not winning by a safe margin in an urban county with one of the country’s largest major cities, especially against an even more reactionary and right-wing Republican Party. Gerrymandering and voting shenanigans alone cannot explain the racial gaps in voting preferences, as dire as they are in Texas.

Del Moral Mealer holds a 31% advantage over Hidalgo among white voters (64% to 33%), while Hidalgo holds a 66% advantage over del Moral Mealer among Black voters (82% to 16%). Del Moral Mealer holds a 3% advantage over Hidalgo among Latino voters (47% to 44%).

It is troublesome to fathom what will happen if the radical right will take over a county that has more people than several states. Whilst Lina Hidalgo will take any public health measures necessary for Harris County in defiance of Texas governor Greg Abbott (R), Alexandra del Moral Mealer will oppose mandates for masks and vaccines; del Moral Mealer feels that parents, churches, and businesses know what’s best for them. That stance is on Ron DeSantis territory, considering that we will have to deal with monkeypox and new immune-evading COVID variants.

x Don’t forget to vote tomorrow for @AlexMealer4HCTX - our next Harris county judge! pic.twitter.com/M55FbFfo1z — Mary Talley Bowden MD (@MdBreathe) May 23, 2022

Whilst Hidalgo has overseen expanded voting in Harris County, including drive-thru voting, del Moral Mealer wants to “secure our elections” to prevent “fraud” and “illegal ballot harvesting”. According to her own words, del Moral Mealer wants to clean up voter rolls and investigate voter fraud. Given that she is literally part of the Republican Party and not an Independent, it’s not far-fetched to say that vigilantes will be used to fight against “fraud”. The fact that she is endorsed by Ted Cruz and Ted Heap should not ensure anyone that her crusade for election security is impartial.

x Senator Ted Cruz Endorses Alexandra Del Moral Mealer for Harris County Judge. Two of a kind. pic.twitter.com/zznDocOp74 — James C Lennon (@KWTP) May 17, 2022

Alexandra del Moral Mealer has been critical of Lina Hidalgo for evaluating the root causes of crime. Del Moral Mealer plans to expand the police state, even after the county passed a $2.5 billion budget for fiscal year 2023 that already expands funding for public safety. Del Moral Mealer welcomes the anti-progressive hatred made by the likes of Katy Christian Magazine, or at least she has made a web link to that publication on her “Alex’s Priorities” page to bolster her stance against progressive police reforms. Del Moral Mealer feels that bail reform causes increases in violent crime, but she hasn’t been bold on her stances when it comes to a previous Harris County District Attorney (who was a Republican) jailing a rape victim or the increasingly militant anti-immigrant rhetoric coming from the Texas GOP. One cannot fathom what will happen if a County Judge is chummy with Dan Patrick or Greg Abbott.

x Great to be with so many current and former Republican staffers fired up to take back #HarrisCounty pic.twitter.com/o5MeHRmh8g — Alexandra del Moral Mealer for Harris County Judge (@AlexMealer4HCTX) July 12, 2022

Speaking of Greg Abbott, the YouGov/UH poll has him trailing Beto O’Rourke (D) by 9-points among likely voters in Harris County. At the same time, Mike Collier (D) leads Dan Patrick (R) by 5-points in the race for Texas Lieutenant Governor, and Rochelle Garza (D) leads Ken Paxton (R) by 4-points for the Texas Attorney General race. Not only is that troubling for the prospects of a Democrat winning a statewide election in Texas, but it speaks volumes on how so many voters in America are supportive of politicians like Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick, especially after those said politicians oversaw an unreliable power grid and prevalent gun violence amid loosening of Texas’s gun laws. Furthermore, when Republican primary voters outnumbered Democratic primary voters this year in Harris County, Harris County Republicans supported Ken Paxton and Don Huffines at higher rates compared to their counterparts in Dallas/Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, and the Rio Grande Valley. (Don’t miscontrue this; George P Bush, Greg Abbott, and Allen West are all abhorrent. But Ken Paxton and Don Huffines are arguably the most extreme right-wingers in their respective races, which is saying a lot.)

x @bestoneTX @txchristabelle



Just “quick and dirty” on 3/1 turnout, I’m surprised that Harris county Republicans turned out more than @harrisdemocrats (189k v 169k).



Overall Texas, Republicans killed it (1,965k v 1,109k). Any theories?



Here’s the largest counties: pic.twitter.com/AeeOdyuY3F — EllynSong (@EllynSong) May 25, 2022

x Harris County Primary Runoff Election Voter Turnout Update:

49,000 Republicans

32,000 Democrats



17 thousand more Republicans have come to the polls. Keep outvoting the commies. Today is the last day of early voting. pic.twitter.com/Fm8Bi1lp4D — Merissa Hansen 🇺🇸 (@MerissaHansen17) May 20, 2022

The culture has to change. We cannot accept mass shootings and prioritise worshipping of a particular assault rifle at the expense of the welfare of the general population. We cannot answer incidents of road rage shootings with more guns. We cannot let politicians get away with screwing the consumer because of a faulty power grid. We cannot let politicians’ militant racism beget more acts of stochastic terrorism. We cannot accept the absolute abortion ban in Texas; yes, a lot of people are “pro-life”, but a totalitarian ban on abortion procedures will bring catastrophic effects to maternal health. We cannot let oil companies get away with environmental racism. People may be getting used to the new normal, but did the likes of Franklin Delano Roosevelt accept the “new normal” of the Great Depression?

But most of all, Democrats have to pay attention. It’s not anymore a stretch that the Right in Texas will be bolstered by relative economic strength and have the energy to eradicate civil rights even further. And the economic right will still view Texas [under GQP rule] as paradise. Like what California reject Alexandra del Moral Mealer is doing now.

x it's wild that one of the bigger reasons texas is still a red state, is from a constant influx of right-wing californians searching for their conservative mecca — nude antifa kobold (@nilbold) December 7, 2020

Don’t let the philanthropic tendencies of Mattress Mack fool you and sway you to vote for such a problematic candidate!

x Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale may be the owner of Gallery Furniture, but he's selling more than furniture. The Houston businessman has officially endorsed Republican candidate Alexandra del Moral Mealer for Harris County Judge in 2022. https://t.co/xNHekYHbFi — Houston Chronicle (@HoustonChron) February 1, 2022

If you have to spend money in Texas, spend it on Lina and Beto.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/14/2110452/-Democratic-wins-in-Harris-County-Houston-may-not-be-a-done-double-digit-margin-deal

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